Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

- Climate change activism gains more prominence as school aged teens who are already politically active join the workforce. It'll be one of the biggest talking points in the 2028 election if US economy continues to grow. If US/world economy falters, climate change will continue to be considered a first-world-coastal-elite-problem and will be ignored for a long time.

- Loneliness and social awkwardness becomes the norm as face to face interaction is no longer required for most real world tasks.

- Marijuana doesn't gain widespread usage like cigarettes did in the past. Legalization doesn't change its usage pattern. Stocks of marijuana companies die out.

- People start caring more for others' welfare, and healthcare in US is funded fully by taxpayers dollars

- The successor to Google Glass, Google Contact (an enhanced version of Glass that uses contact-lenses) becomes popular and a staple of nearly every household.

- Google is split up into separate companies.

- At least one plague happens because of overuse of antibiotics.

- China develops hypersonic weapons and takes over Taiwan.

- There becomes a backlash against the "cloud", and people start moving everything into local storage as prices-per-terabyte become cheaper, and after a bunch of "cloud" companies shut down.

- The US will still have expensive, crappy healthcare compared to the rest of the world.

By end of decade:

Over 80% of new cars sold are electric. (90% - it is hard to not see this one happen.)

At least 3 of General Motors, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagon, Toyota and Nissan go bankrupt or are sold. (70% - the electric transition will not be nice to them.)

The car dealer system will undergo major changes in the USA. (60% - car dealers and manufacturers are at odds on electric vehicles and manufacturers tied down by car dealer laws are at a major disadvantage against companies without car dealers. Such as Tesla and companies that will try to enter from elsewhere like NIO from China.)

The EU monetary union will collapse. (70% - An economic union is only sustainable in the long-run with political union, and there is no appetite for political union. The result is growing tension between savers like Germany and debtors like Greece, Italy and Spain.)

The UK's economic growth post-Brexit will exceed the EU as a whole. (60% - due to less regulation and continued EU financial crises)

Democrats win the Presidency in both 2024 and 2028. (70% - this is based on demographic trends and the fact that the Republicans can't change their policies until enough of their base dies of old age.)

Suborbital flights replace over 1% of long distance air trips. (30% - SpaceX is the only one who can and a lot has to go right for them to succeed. But the vision is realistic and out there - it is now mostly a question of when.)

Facebook no longer is or owns the dominant social network. (30% - the value of a social network scales like O(n log(n)) but Facebook recognizes this and is doing a good job of buying competitors. Eventually they will fail.)

College tuition no longer outpaces inflation, and the ending of this trend will be tied to a financial crisis. (30% - Stein's law says, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." However there are two corollaries by Stuart Stanisford, "It will go on a lot longer than we think," and "It will end badly when it does stop." The first is why I think that it has a good chance of not happening this decade. But the second captures the fact that behavior won't be likely to change without a crisis. And consider that at $1.6 trillion, student loan debt is the largest source of personal debt, and the only one not dischargeable in bankruptcy. If it triggers a crisis, there are the makings of a good one here.)