91–100 of 1001 posts
Demo to try it out: https://kumi-play-web.fly.dev/
GitHub: https://github.com/amuta/kumi
Windows does not natively support rendering thumbnails for 10-bit videos, which are commonly produced by cameras like the Sony A7IV.
When I started working on a short film the video clips were piling up on my hard drive. Opening them one by one to find what I was looking for was tedious.
I could not find a reputable solution to this problem, so I started a company and built one. I went through the process of EV Certification to have the installer and executable code signed.
I hope to be in the Microsoft Store soon.
I'm also building other utilities with similar purpose.
It would have been so much easy just to program the midi hub I wanted to program but wanted to make it generic.. now I can make the firmware for any configuration in seconds!
Currently working on a take on Pokémon GO + Pokémon Snap but for birding. The goal is to explore your neighborhood, find birds, take good photos of them all. Next month, I'll be doing an event to find a rare bird, excited to see how it goes! It's still a small closed alpha, if anyone is interested: https://testers.birdlego.com Here is a rough trailer of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVpR8aafFjI
Currently working on a take on Pokémon GO + Pokémon Snap but for birding. The goal is to explore your neighborhood, find birds, take good photos of them all. Next month, I'll be doing an event to find a rare bird, excited to see how it goes! It's still a small closed alpha, if anyone is interested: https://testers.birdlego.com Here is a rough trailer of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVpR8aafFjI
I’m building a small live NFL game-prediction tracker and writing up what I learn as I go:
https://michellepellon.com/portfolio/nfl-game-predictions
# What’s under the hood today
ELO translated to the NFL with margin-of-victory adjustments, a modest home-field term, and week-to-week recency weighting.
Post-hoc calibration with isotonic regression so 70% predictions land near 0.70 empirically.
Monte Carlo to roll games forward for distributions on weekly win odds and season outcomes, plus basic reliability/Brier/log-loss tracking.
# Where I’m taking it (ensemble ideas)
Blend a few complementary signals: (1) pure ELO strength; (2) schedule-adjusted EPA/Success Rate features; (3) injury/QB continuity and rest/travel effects; (4) a small “market prior” from closing lines; (5) weather/play style pace features.
Combine via a simple stacked model (regularized logistic, isotonic on top), or a Bayesian hierarchical model that lets team effects evolve with partial pooling.
Separate models for win prob vs. expected margin, then reconcile with a consistent link so the two don’t disagree.
Emphasis on calibration over leaderboard-chasing: reliability diagrams, ECE, PIT histograms, and backtests that penalize regime drift.
# Why I’m doing it
It’s a sandbox to teach myself Monte Carlo and ELO end-to-end—data ingest → feature plumbing → simulation → calibration → eval—on a domain with immediate feedback every week.
# How this connects to my day job (healthcare ops)
I work at BlueSprig, running ~150 ABA therapy clinics. I’m exploring whether ELO-like ideas can augment ops decisions:
“Strength” ratings for clinics, care teams, or scheduling templates based on outcome deltas and throughput (margin-of-victory ≈ effect size/efficiency).
Opponent/schedule ≈ case-mix, payer mix, staffing constraints, geography.
Monte Carlo for expansion planning (new-site ramp curves), capacity/OT forecasting, and risk-adjusted outcome monitoring with calibration so probabilities mean something.
Guardrails for fairness and interpretability so ratings don’t become blunt scorecards.
# Help
If you’ve shipped calibrated ensembles in sports or have pointers on applying rating systems to multi-site healthcare operations, I’d love to trade notes or if you need someone to this and other kind of work for their dayjob email me at mgracepellon@gmail.com -- I would love to do this fulltime.
A time-sorted list of top posts from Hacker News, Tildes, Lobsters, Slashdot, Bear, and some science, tech & programming related subreddits.
Posts on STEAMD topics (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, Math, and Design).
My site went live 2 days ago. I shared more details on below post but for some reason, my post was shadow banned and didn't show up on Show HN.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45849924
Any constructive feedback is welcome!
Note that I am trying to narrow down a bug in my backend which sometimes causes it to crash. Since backend is built in Swift using SQLite as database, it's a bit hard to nail down the issue.