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Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#91

Post by layer8 »

mywacaday wrote: post #47
ghshephard wrote: post #9

OpenAI, at least in my day-day workflow for the last 9+ months has so superseded anything that google ever was to me that I'm having a difficult time comparing the two. I've got a monitor dedicated 100% of the time to ChatGPT, and I interact with it non stop during the flow of technical scenarios and troubleshooting situations that flow into me - working in areas that I have the slimmest of backgrounds in, and shutti…

I'm bullish in the short to medium term. I also pay the $20 a month as it's worth it for the quick in co text answers. The company I work for (60k+ employees) has also rolled out an internal version Of ChatGPT and will be integrating live data with our ticketing system which will be a game changer from the demos I've seen. We are also doing a 9M trial of office copilot which I think that will be as big as office 365…

I wonder if this will disadvantage smaller companies who can’t afford an on-premise instance but also can’t use the cloud version due to NDAs and data protection.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#92

Post by kjkjadksj »

I figured no one in the ai space today is going for agi because we just don’t have those models. Companies don’t do novel work. They find existing novel work that has known outcomes to invest in and iterate upon. There’s still a ton of value in present day ai. Compare Siri to chatgpt and its night and day how much better chatgpt is for most people’s basic queries and tasks. That is valuable.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#93

Post by kjkjadksj »

orochimaaru wrote: post #25

Nope. Learn how to use it in almost everything you do. It’s a game changer. LLMs aren’t AGI. They’re far it. But they have massive uses for reasoning on available context. I’ll give you an example. I’m trying to set up some bulk monitoring for api across 200k jvm s. The api documents are horribly out of date. But I get the raw uri on the monitoring tools. I can just get these uri, send them into chatgpt and ask for a…

I’m surprised you are able to get a whole script working as expected out of it. I’ve tried using chatgpt just for lines of code alone and its always coming up with a solution thats, I guess you could say is far to “creative” to be useful and often doesn’t end up doing what I expect of it when I go to test what its given me.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#94

Post by alchemist1e9 »

soasdfg wrote: post #86
alchemist1e9 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve seen non-technical people ask the strangest questions that really don’t have a problem they are trying to solve or brainstorm. They think it’s just a game or fun joke tool and want to try and get it to say something silly. The technical people who reject it are quite curious psychologically, my personal suspicion is they are threatened by it. They get hung up on small hallucinations and then almost get giddy whe…

> They things I’ve had it do with me are mind blowing, my guess is the people who understand it and how to leverage it will increase their own productivity so much that it will reshape economies and put many people out of work that don’t learn how to use it. This is the kind of hyper sensationalism that I'm talking about. Do you really believe that, or is this you extrapolating to what could be possible in the future…

> This is the kind of hyper sensationalism that I'm talking about. Do you really believe that, or is this you extrapolating to what could be possible in the future if the technology keeps improving?

I don’t just believe it I already see it happening directly. I have made changes in hiring strategies and employment situations based on massive increases in productivity from using LLMs.

The difference in productivity of developers that embrace the new tools vs those who don’t is very obvious in my opinion. It’s probably the next 18-24 months when the impact becomes more obvious on larger scales.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#95

Post by roboman »

nunez wrote: post #56

I'm not bearish on OpenAI or AGI in general but I'm extremely meh about it. I'm not chomping at the bit to use it like so many are, and I constantly feel like a huge luddite or something for not being super excited about it. The value and time it saves makes sense for folks who struggle with a search engine (many) or doing tasks that are typically considered menial, like writing emails or coding boilerplate. However,…

"(I personally don't mind coding boilerplate stuff, especially since I can learn how the framework works that way)"

^ Isn't that what folks used to say about programming in assembler? How much time do I want to spend learning frameworks (beyond what I already know) vs. how productive do I want to be?

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#96

Post by kjkjadksj »

RecycledEle wrote: post #83

OpenAI has changed education. I'm a teacher who is constantly learning new things. I can learn things I would have never been able to learn before because of AIs like ChatGPT. My students are learning more and faster than ever before. Learning Management Systems like Canvas and Blackboard made a lot of money. I could argue they are obsolete now.

Learning management systems are far from obsolete. They exist because schools and teachers can no longer make their own websites to host material, tabulate grades, and accept submissions. Ai tools do different things entirely than blackboard and canvas.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#97

Post by elforce002 »

ghshephard wrote: post #9

OpenAI, at least in my day-day workflow for the last 9+ months has so superseded anything that google ever was to me that I'm having a difficult time comparing the two. I've got a monitor dedicated 100% of the time to ChatGPT, and I interact with it non stop during the flow of technical scenarios and troubleshooting situations that flow into me - working in areas that I have the slimmest of backgrounds in, and shutti…

I used it to create a credit score system to start a project and it gave me the basics. I don't expect anything other than that.

The real issue will be that majority of users will take the answer face value without even knowing if that answer is a good one or just nonsense.

"The AI said..." will create lots of issues. Time will tell.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#98

Post by pmarreck »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #26

> What am I missing here? I’m guessing you haven’t actually been using it personally beyond some superficial examples. Once you use it regularly to solve real world technical problems it’s pretty huge deal and the only people so far that I’ve met who voice ideas similar to yours, just simply haven’t used it beyond asking it questions which it isn’t designed for.

I second this. It's been immensely useful to me, even with the occasional fabrications.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#99

Post by aprdm »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #94
soasdfg wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They things I’ve had it do with me are mind blowing, my guess is the people who understand it and how to leverage it will increase their own productivity so much that it will reshape economies and put many people out of work that don’t learn how to use it. This is the kind of hyper sensationalism that I'm talking about. Do you really believe that, or is this you extrapolating to what could be possible in the future…

> This is the kind of hyper sensationalism that I'm talking about. Do you really believe that, or is this you extrapolating to what could be possible in the future if the technology keeps improving? I don’t just believe it I already see it happening directly. I have made changes in hiring strategies and employment situations based on massive increases in productivity from using LLMs. The difference in productivity of…

Yep totally agreed. I have very junior developers doing complex tasks with the aid of it — for example sql queries , elasticsearch, ansible, react — all without having touched them before

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?

#100

Post by sgarland »

ghshephard wrote: post #58
bloppe wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mind if I ask what kind of projects you work on? And any specific examples where GPT really shined and delivered a lot of value?

All SRE type work. Where it specifically shines is whenever you need to dig deep into linux kernel specifics, networking specifics, code in different languages to handle issues (Rust (which I don't know), Go, Python, Bash, etc...), All sorts of error messages it knows so often what precisely needs to be done to resolve, using and configuring graphing, database, TSDB type queries, formulating a clever tcpdump query fo…

> having to dig in and learn the fundamentals on a lot of things - which is unsustainable if you are touching 30-50 different technology stacks.

IMO, this is the crux of the problem, and it’s caused by allowing dev teams to use whatever stack they want, without also requiring them to support it. More cynically, it will always be the case if teams are allowed to use whatever they want, regardless of “service ownership” – because when there’s a SEV-1 and the owning teams have no idea what’s wrong, the SREs are going to be told to fix it.

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