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Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

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Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#91

Post by ryoshu »

flanked-evergl wrote: post #74
simonw wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a bunch of examples myself. Here's a good recent one (prompts are linked about half way down the post): https://simonwillison.net/2023/Aug/6/annotated-presentations... A few more: - "Write a Python script with no extra dependencies which can take a list of URLs and use a HEAD request to find the size of each one and then add those all up" https://simonwillison.net/2023/Aug/3/weird-world-of-llms/#us... - "Show…

I dunno what you do for a job but if that is your hard problems or even medium problems then I think you lucked out big time.

I use ChatGPT for similar. I can spend time looking into various languages/libraries I don't use often and figure it out. Or I can ask an LLM and have an answer I can validate in the same amount of time I start browsing search results.

Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#92

Post by coldtea »

kragen wrote: post #65
coldtea wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or, for every junior that isn't hired by a business that can't expand its portfolio to exploit greater productivity or can’t figure out how to effectively use LLMs across the experience spectrum, two will be hired in shops that can do those things And everybody also gets a pony! Win-win-win situation! Previous "software dev productivity increases" happened as computing saturation itself increased from a hanful of m…

> Previous "software dev productivity increases" happened as computing saturation itself increased from a handful of mainframes to one in every office, then at every desk, then a few in every home, and later one in every hand. Now it's at 100% or close. previous 'computing saturation is at 100% or close' pronouncements go back to 01953 https://geekhistory.com/content/urban-legend-i-think-there-w... this human body we…

>previous 'computing saturation is at 100% or close' pronouncements go back to 1953

Yes, pronouncements can come early. They can also come at the point in time that they hold. Previous pronouncements having come early doesn't mean the same pronouncement will never hold.

In any case, those pronouncements didn't match an 1:1 (or even 3:1, considering laptop+work computer+smartphone) ratio of computer to person.

>obviously (?) such a computer can't be manufactured by current manufacturing techniques, but also obviously it will work once you figure out how to make it.

In any case, fitting "400 quadrillion such computers into the space of the human body", even if possible, doesn't require 400 quadrillion programmers. Or even necessarily that much programmer. After all programmers genereally don't increase based on the count of cpus (that's a less strong correlation), but based on the number of individual software programs.

Such a development might not even require more programmers than there are today. In fact, if LLMs improve similarly as original GPT to GPT 4, or (even worse) if AGI is achieved before those nanocomputers, their software might require exactly 0 programmers.

In any case, the eventual (?) achievement of those "400 quadrillion such computers into the space of the human body" (while still waiting for flying cars, robot servants, and cold fusion) would be so far ahead to make the point moot regarding the job prospects on programmers in the industry given the raise of LLM in the next 30-40 years.

>as for corporatism, corporatism seems very unlikely to become established in the current political environment outside of backwaters like argentina.

Outside of backwaters? Corporatism has been the status quo in the US for several decades now...

Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#93

Post by over_bridge »

sharts wrote: post #67
tivert wrote: post #11

> 2. I no longer feel the need to hire juniors. This is a short-term positive and maybe a long-term negative. > A lot of stuff I used to delegate to fellow humans are now being delegated to ChatGPT. And I can get the results immediately and at any time I want. I agree that it cannot operate on its own. I still need to review and correct things. I have do that even when working with other humans. The only difference i…

The only solution is to rapidly scale these up so that they can disrupt every aspect of everyone's life until we all decide to throw our hands up and decide it's time for a new social construct. I'm surprised someone hasn't replace politicians with an LLM. Imagine not having to pay their salaries when ChatGPT can send "thoughts and prayers" to Maui over Twitter 24/7.

Politicians are just a perfect role to disrupt. Problem is of course they are a monopoly so can't be competed with and are protected by law/constitution so can't be changed directly.

Their whole job is to 'represent' their constituents. A LLM can poll the sentiments of the people far more effectively than they can. I'm sure it could be programmed to accept bribes too to weigh rich people's opinions higher. I'd love to see votes done by 100 different LLMs instead of Senators (a hyperbolic, non literal statement but interesting as a thought experiment I hope)

Politicians should still propose new and altered legislation but actually voting, and being informed to vote, could be massively improved.

Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#94

Post by sircastor »

tivert wrote: post #11

> 2. I no longer feel the need to hire juniors. This is a short-term positive and maybe a long-term negative. > A lot of stuff I used to delegate to fellow humans are now being delegated to ChatGPT. And I can get the results immediately and at any time I want. I agree that it cannot operate on its own. I still need to review and correct things. I have do that even when working with other humans. The only difference i…

>> it's that they'll cause a lot of economic devastation to people who make a living through labor requiring skill and knowledge, especially future generations of skilled labor.

Occasionally I would see clips from or read reactions to Idiocracy, and be left scratching my head, because somehow, somewhere, there have to be the people who are thinking. The whole conceit of the film is that there are no smart, curious people because it's being bred out of the population. That never made sense to me because you still have to have some smart, curious, creative people somewhere to keep things moving. Our society is quite dependent on the people who silently keep things running in the background.

I can however envision a world where early curiosity is discouraged, and supplanted by a technology that can fill the holes of the entry-level smart people. When everyone is discouraged from starting, and the existing participants age out, then maybe you can get a world where there are no new smart, curious people.

Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#95

Post by kragen »

coldtea wrote: post #92
kragen wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Previous "software dev productivity increases" happened as computing saturation itself increased from a handful of mainframes to one in every office, then at every desk, then a few in every home, and later one in every hand. Now it's at 100% or close. previous 'computing saturation is at 100% or close' pronouncements go back to 01953 https://geekhistory.com/content/urban-legend-i-think-there-w... this human body we…

> previous 'computing saturation is at 100% or close' pronouncements go back to 1953 Yes, pronouncements can come early. They can also come at the point in time that they hold. Previous pronouncements having come early doesn't mean the same pronouncement will never hold. In any case, those pronouncements didn't match an 1:1 (or even 3:1, considering laptop+work computer+smartphone) ratio of computer to person. > obvi…

i don't see how saying that 20-nanometer-diameter sram cells and switching elements will work could be any farther from handwaving; they're already in mass production, forming the bulk of shipped processors for cellphones and laptops this year

the only handwaving in the bit you quoted consists of saying that it's not possible to build computers where the entire computer is less than a micron across with current manufacturing techniques

it's certainly true that computers don't require programmers. i think it's easier to reason correctly about the issue the other way around; programmers can do anything, but they require computers to do it

50 years ago, if you wanted to cycle the current in a voltammetry lab setup or make your windshield wipers intermittent, you designed a circuit. if you wanted to get a screw machine to cut a new kind of screw, you probably cut some new cams out of steel sheet. if you wanted to retard the spark timing on your engine ignition, you adjusted a screw

now in all those cases you just write a program, or perhaps even change some parameters to a program, because all those things are controlled by computers now. so suddenly you have lots of programmers working in these areas

today, if you want a ditch dug, you don't write a program; you rent a backhoe or pick up a shovel. but that's just because your dirt isn't programmable yet

the flying cars problem is well documented to be a question of regulatory obstacles and governance, not technical capabilities. lots of people do fly ultralights today, you can find videos on youtube

will the same problem force you to move your dirt with a shovel 50 years from now instead of just telling it where to go? yeah, plausibly, but that's just a question of amish-style or tokugawa-style rejection of technology, not a question of saturating the possibilities

as for corporatism in the usa, it definitely isn't a thing. possibly you just don't know what corporatism is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporatism

Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#96

Post by tstrimple »

natechols wrote: post #66
bloppe wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am even more concerned that very few people are talking about this. People have been talking about the threat of automation since the very beginning of the industrial revolution. It just never plays out nearly that badly, and short-term disruptions are always outweighed by long-term efficiency gains within ~5 years or so; even those who experience the worst career disruption tend to end up better off within that…

> People have been talking about the threat of automation since the very beginning of the industrial revolution. And the prediction that only the ownership class would benefit from technological improvements is at least as old as Marx.

And it's proven to be unequivocally true hasn't it? Just take a look at the accumulation of wealth since 1970.

Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#97

Post by tstrimple »

flanked-evergl wrote: post #74
simonw wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a bunch of examples myself. Here's a good recent one (prompts are linked about half way down the post): https://simonwillison.net/2023/Aug/6/annotated-presentations... A few more: - "Write a Python script with no extra dependencies which can take a list of URLs and use a HEAD request to find the size of each one and then add those all up" https://simonwillison.net/2023/Aug/3/weird-world-of-llms/#us... - "Show…

I dunno what you do for a job but if that is your hard problems or even medium problems then I think you lucked out big time.

You're missing the point. These LLM which are replacing "junior developers" aren't what's going to be used for "hard or even medium problems" because you don't just give junior developers "hard problems" to solve in isolation. Now try to give some thought as to the types of problems junior developers are suited to solve. Now apply ChatGPT to those scenarios.

Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#98

Post by slt2021 »

Animats wrote: post #20
tivert wrote: post #11

> 2. I no longer feel the need to hire juniors. This is a short-term positive and maybe a long-term negative. > A lot of stuff I used to delegate to fellow humans are now being delegated to ChatGPT. And I can get the results immediately and at any time I want. I agree that it cannot operate on its own. I still need to review and correct things. I have do that even when working with other humans. The only difference i…

> I no longer feel the need to hire juniors. I hear that from a friend in the legal business. Less need for paralegals. Unclear yet if the need for new lawyers will be reduced.

maybe paralegals could be replaced by even cheaper clerks with ChatGPT ?

why pay Law school graduate as paralegal, when you can hire associate degree grad with ChatGPT to do the same work?

Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#99

Post by slt2021 »

simonw wrote: post #40
fleeno wrote: post #30

Can you elaborate on how you're actually using ChatGPT? I'm a developer and I haven't felt any need to use ChatGPT constantly. What tasks are you delegating to ChatGPT that were previously done by humans? Most of my input from others is regarding current information specific to the task at hand. I don't see how ChatGPT would have any idea what I'm talking about. Do you have some specific examples you could share?

I have a bunch of examples myself. Here's a good recent one (prompts are linked about half way down the post): https://simonwillison.net/2023/Aug/6/annotated-presentations... A few more: - "Write a Python script with no extra dependencies which can take a list of URLs and use a HEAD request to find the size of each one and then add those all up" https://simonwillison.net/2023/Aug/3/weird-world-of-llms/#us... - "Show…

sorry but these examples are not impressive at all and by no means a representative of any serious programmer's workload.

Programmers are paid not to bang out code, but rather to figure out the mess and crap of the existing codebase and how to selectively add one-two lines to change system's behavior and keep stability of the system.

Re: Ask HN: Burnout because of ChatGPT?

#100

Post by slt2021 »

fleeno wrote: post #30

Can you elaborate on how you're actually using ChatGPT? I'm a developer and I haven't felt any need to use ChatGPT constantly. What tasks are you delegating to ChatGPT that were previously done by humans? Most of my input from others is regarding current information specific to the task at hand. I don't see how ChatGPT would have any idea what I'm talking about. Do you have some specific examples you could share?

if you use elasticsearch and not familiar with elastic search's syntax (I am not), you could use ChatGPT to write elastic queries for you.

same for SQL, if you are not familiar with SQL.

probably could be same with Splunk SPL, Kibana KQL, Prometheus PromQL, or any other DSL that you are not familiar with

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