Could be the western powers actually don’t have as much global influence as they once had. China, India, Turkey and Israel (along with a host of others) have no problem interacting with russia economically. The recent crash was just another opportunity to make some money and buy the dip.
Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
91–100 of 253 posts
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#92Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#93Doesn't make sense does it? Lies usually don't. The truth does make sense, but they don't want you to hear it. https://tomluongo.me/2022/03/28/got-gold-rubles-russia-just-...
Ah yes, the shadowy, nebulous "they" that are suppressing the "real truth". Not surprising the linked post reads with a serious undercurrent of conspiracy theory.
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
I tried to read that but couldn't get over the conspiracy-theory-sounding language.
What are you even talking about?
No yeah, "But, whatever, Neocons never met an ugly stick that they didn’t want to use to beat someone over the head with. Too bad all they’re doing is hitting a rubber tire." sounds like the least biased sentence ever.
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#95Supply and demand. 1. Capital controls. Russians are legally not allowed to sell their Rubles anymore. This decreases supply and keeps prices up. 2. A healthy dose of foreign currency ($1B/day from Germany alone) gives the Russian central bank plenty of tools to buy Rubles and increase demand for it to keep prices up. This does not mean that the existing sanctions aren’t working. Eventually Russian factories will run…
> $1B/day from Germany alone
According to [1], all imports from Russia to Germany in March were 4B EUR, so rather $139M/day, not $1B/day. Maybe that is the amount for all of the EU (with Germany then contributing 13.9%)?
[1] https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2022/03...
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#96Not an economist, but my understanding is that they propped up the ruble by requiring it to be used for transactions that could previously have settled in other currencies, and by forbidding certain foreign currency purchases. If you can't buy dollars, it doesn't matter what the exchange rate is. Obviously that won't work, long term.
I heard that the black market rate is something around 120 RUB per dollar which is almost double the official rate.
Nope. 88-91 RUB/USD if you want to buy crypto (something like USDT), and 83 RUB/USD if you're buying something at Aliexpress (i.e., buying from China and paying in USD).
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#97Nicely covered in Adam Something's latest video, "Who's Winning the War for Ukraine?":
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't see how that can really work unless the published rate isn't the actual market rate which would be ridiculous.
Easy. Try buying and selling at this rate. It’s a hugely constrained market. I can tell you I have an asset worth 1e12 dollars but no one can buy it or sell it. This is kind of the same.
Ok but is the market rate not derived from the prices that people actually are buying and selling at? If not that's kind of insane.
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#9920% interest rate (now 17%).
Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
Easy. Try buying and selling at this rate. It’s a hugely constrained market. I can tell you I have an asset worth 1e12 dollars but no one can buy it or sell it. This is kind of the same.
Ok but is the market rate not derived from the prices that people actually are buying and selling at? If not that's kind of insane.
That’s my point, there isn’t really a free market for rubles. It’s so tightly controlled by the Russian state, they might as well name a price.