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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#91
Dozens of cities in the US will seriously invest money and adopt new policies to become the "next Silicon Valley." One will reach Boston-level success. Probably in a Southern state along the East Coast.

Fewer people with CS degrees, more inclusion of CS coursework across different degree programs.

Going beyond 2030 to 2050, shopping malls outside of high-value cities will be abandoned, never repurposed, and become common locations for "urban ruin explorers."

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#92

1. Merging of mobile/desktop OS (i.e. iOS and MacOS becoming one and the same). 2. A Microsoft first-party Android device is launched, following a similar attack strategy they are currently starting with Edge on Chromium: fork, improve, destroy. 3. ARM takes over... actually, a more bold prediction: x86-64 remains king, and ARM is not able to conquer beyond the mobile market, despite present-day feelers. 4. Self driv…

> attack strategy [that Microsoft is] starting with Edge on Chromium: fork, improve, destroy Can you enlighten me on the "improve" and "destroy" parts of that strategy? For all I know, Edgium is Chrome with Google services replaced by Microsoft services.

I'm just being cute :)

It's the "if you can't beat them, fork them" strategy that I think will pay off in the end. "Improve" and "Destroy" are both rather optional.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#93

- Gene editing and CRISPR advances lead to first viable and legal designer babies - Longevity research extends life expectancy by at least 10 years - Cold war with China is still ongoing - New battery tech finally makes electric cars cheap enough to be practical, boutique electric automakers proliferate - driverless transportation exists on pre-defined routes, mainly powering shuttle and transit buses, but not able t…

Batteries will likely have 2x the capacity in 10 years, but range will increase a only fraction of that. The rest will be spent on lowering prices and curb weight.

By 2030, ownership of ICE vehicles will start to go bimodal, with new luxury vehicles catering to the rich, and used vehicle ownership moving to the those of limited means.

By 2030 even the fusion people will be making fun of general AI. Again.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#94
- “AI” will be a continuing hype that still falls to deliver. “Self driving cars“ will be a thing but not in the sense that they are fully autonomous. People still buy (more often leads) and drive cars.

- Personal Integrity will be the new “organic” of gadgets. A more tech savvy and privacy conscious generation will demand to not be listened to by their TVs.

- Traditional auto makers have a tough first half of the decade, converting to BEV production. They do catch up with electric vehicle production in the second half.

- Regulation catches up lots of tech from the last decade: drones, deepfakes, gene editing cryptocurrency etc.

- We are nowhere close to a manned flight to mars.

- Lots of lowland is ocean!

- Nuclear power makes no big comebacks

- Fusion power is now looking promising but still far from commercial

- We still use PCs and we still use desktop software. It’s becoming more and more niche however (e.g used by certain professions.).

- smartphones look pretty much the same as they do now (slabs). The same goes for monitors, TVs: incremental improvements (8K, HDR etc) but no major revolutions.

- VR never makes a big breakthrough, but the tech matures to something incredible (but niche).

- There won’t exist a good way of paying for content online so news outlets will still struggle.

- FM radio will be almost gone

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#95

1. Trust in journalists and news publications will continue to crater due to their inability to resist clickbait, sloppy ethic controls, and constant hyperboles. 2. China will enter a pronounced recession that is it unable to hide from the world. 3. The EU will lose at-least one more member nation after the United Kingdom leaves. 4. The credibility of scientist and research universities will hit all time lows as the…

I think journalism will find its bearings in the new digital/social media environment and gain trust again, it just won't operate/look like what we think of as journalism today or in the past.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#96
post #91

Dozens of cities in the US will seriously invest money and adopt new policies to become the "next Silicon Valley." One will reach Boston-level success. Probably in a Southern state along the East Coast. Fewer people with CS degrees, more inclusion of CS coursework across different degree programs. Going beyond 2030 to 2050, shopping malls outside of high-value cities will be abandoned, never repurposed, and become co…

I think that malls will become server farms.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#97
Google will buy an electric utility and enter into the power industry with full force. Not only revving up smartgrid and the whole customer experience, but seriously pursuing fringe power generation like ocean waves, thermoelectrics. Vast majority of these will be abandoned.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#98
* Companies will grow further until they overpower nation states. Neither the West nor China can break them up since they are the players in the economic wars. They need the size to finance the ever increasing costs of technological progress.

* There will be general artificial intelligence. Somebody will get it right this time because all components are available outside of academia. A team without an agenda will come up with the right combination by chance.

* At the end of the decade, people will design the genetic setup of 'their' children

* We will give up on preserving nature and embrace global warming. A new metropolis will be created from all the people who are forced to settle somewhere else. Established players will strengthen their borders but somebody will use that opportunity. I can imagine a city in Saudi Arabia but it could also be a special economic zone in China.

* The Chinese social credit system will be so successful that many other countries will introduce it, too.

* Energy will become scarce because all is needed for simulations and encryption attacks

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#99
- In 2030 Google will still be around, yet without the same market share it holds now. Also, the public grows tired of their creepy advertising & federal laws are passed to protect our data possibly forcing them to change their business model.

- Google Home and the Alexa's of the world either change to privacy focus or are shunned for assistants that are privacy focused.

On a different note I think the guy who created that HBO Michael Jackson documentary (Dan Reed) is currently working on a similar piece about Silicon Valley. I would guess based on his MJ documentary that it might not be a flattering piece. Such could hurt one the current tech giants reputation & their market share.

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