Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

In 2030 - and focused on things that are different - not the same.

+ Smart home tech will be ubiquitous. Smart speakers paved the way. They're still not very smart, but good enough as an interface. Most importantly, they are the reason other home products became connected. Smart home products are smart lamps, outlets, curtains, locks.

+ Electrification of heating is happening at a large scale. This can be through a combination of devices, from floor heating to infrared panels in the form of paintings. This is driven by a continuous drop of the cost of electricity production.

+ Indoor positioning becomes considerable bigger, but doesn't reach the number of outdoor positioning chips (GPS) yet. It is used for asset tracking, smart homes, and hopefully not for advertisements.

+ Battery-free devices entered the consumer market. Using backscattering and energy harvesting techniques they perform basic tasks which conventially required a battery. This will be all low-bandwidth.

+ In other words, wireless charging on a distance of a couple of meters takes off. This will be low-energy. Not to charge smartphones or laptops.

+ Lab-grown meat is available in the supermarket. The price didn't come down yet. It's a product for people who can afford it.

+ A mouse brain has been frozen for a day, got revived, and lived for a bit after that.

+ There have been attempts to grow more crops in the sea. It couldn't robotized enough in those rough conditions to significantly produce food for kettle though.

+ Vertical farming is still a hype. Greenhouses pop up in more and more countries, reducing the role of the Netherlands w.r.t. agricultural exports.

+ A platform that brings together home sellers and buyers becomes global. It becomes bigger than Airbnb.

+ A sex toy with tele-properties goes viral. It is removing some social barriers. However, the society - esp. the US - remains very prudish.

+ We use the smartphone to pay and for access control. No need to carry a credit card or keys on you. Finally!

That's it for now! No autonomous cars, and no big advanced in general artificial intelligence. Still a lot to look forward to, I think! :-)

It's not just conspiracy theories. The focus of much of tech has focused from providing value to its users to extracting maximum value via behavioral manipulation. (Sorry, "engagement" and "stickiness")

People who can afford to reject the services provided, or can afford to buy them non-sticky elsewhere, will. Same as it ever was - money buys freedom.

-Analogue technologies will gain ground on digital, based on their current statuses

-The Global Mass Extinction will accelerate.

-Polite disagreement with authority will become harder. Most people will be either law abiding citizens of an increasingly authoritarian system or acknowledged criminals, with fewer 'naughty' figures.

-Global life expectancy will increase by 5-10 years

-Nation states will have a slow-motion Kessler event. Cities and city politics will become increasingly important on the global stage.

-psychedelics and other tools that work at the overlap of psychology and physics will increase in prominence. Religions will get weirder, more Florida than California in flavour.

1. Electric cars will be around 10% of the total cars in the world

2. The world will hit a major recession starting with China

3. We will have simple and effective screening test for most form of cancers with high accuracy

4. We will begin seeing the benefits and power of quantum computing and its applications

5. We will have 1-2 successful manned missions to Mars and Moon

6. Richest and most successful tech companies will still be Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple

7. Major Indian cities like Bangalore, Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai will hit a major overpopulation crisis, resulting in unavailability of basic amenities like water, shelter and electricity

8. Hyperloop will be in its nascent stages but will be commercially available reducing traveling times by a huge factor

9. Plant based meats and lab grown meats consumption will grow exponentially

10. A deadly bacterial/viral disease will kill more than 1 million people worldwide

1) The US will not get any sort of major infrastructure renewal.

2) There will be major pushback against drones across western nations. They will be seen as infringing on people’s rights/a safety issue.

3)China will continue to rule with an iron fist, but towards the end of the decade demographic problems will start to show their colors. Trillions will be dumped into chest puffing around the South China Sea.

3) AR will become fairly normal in the workplace, but it will still be weird, but not unheard of, to use in public

4)Major strides are made on reversing/slowing the aging process. The average life expectancy will go up 5-10 years in advanced economies.

5) this will be paired with an epidemic disease coming out of China or China controlled Africa, and will spur increased world scrutiny of Chinese economic practices.

6)UBI is rolled out in some European economies.

7)Possibly a large swing to the left in American politics, spurred by Social Security and Medicare coming to a financial impasse. UBI in the US not out of the question.

8)California finally chases most of Silicon Valley out of the state. Major tech hubs will be in Texas, Colorado and Toronto. California also on verge of/declares bankruptcy. The transition won’t be complete by 2030, but the writing will be on the wall.

9)lack of software developers persists driven by constant churn, there will be a major shortage of programmers who are willing to take on maintenance of old systems.

10) average level of techsaviness goes down significantly as gen Z becomes adults who have never had to use a challenging computer.

11)Regulation of social media will be a hot-button issue globally, but the US will struggle with it because of how it relates to Free Speech. Without leadership on this problem Chinese style authoritarianism will proliferate.