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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#851
- fossil fuel power stations will not be built anymore

- still no safe deposit for radioactive waste

- electric cars will be everywhere

- if not electrified trains, ships and some planes will use hydrogen as fuel

- new houses will use a combination of solar/wind power, batteries and hydrogen storage making them energy autarkic

- nuclear fusion for energy generation will finally be developed. However nobody cares, because renewable energy sources are so much cheaper in 2030.

- Oil-producing countries will be in decline

- SpaceX will build space-based solar power stations

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#852
A working, large quantum computer is built rendering existing encryption useless. But everyone switches to quantum-resistant encryption algorithms long before this becomes a problem for the average person as the machines remain technically complex, expensive and too hard to program for the average fraudster. It then becomes clear that there are very few actual applications a quantum computer is better at (given price, difficulty to program, the fact we mostly use computers to check facebook not to do hard maths etc.). Quantum computer become irrelevant outside a few specialist applications in things like protein folding.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#853
post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

You had me till cargo pants...

Y'never know.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#854
post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries. Per-capita CO emissions [1]: United States 17.5 Australia 16.75 Canada 14.67 Russian Fed. 12.18 South Korea 11.78 Norway 11.71 Finland 11.53 Greenland 11.07 Netherlands 10.96 ... China 6.18 Mexico 3.91 Brazil 2.15 India 1.64 If lack of initiative is to blame we need to point the right culprits. [1] htt…

That little table is the only place where China looks good with regards to CO2 emissions. If the US had 4x the population, ceteris paribus, we'd have even lower CO2 "per capita" than China. Doesn't change one bit the fact that China emits 40% more CO2 than the next biggest polluter.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#855
post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries. Per-capita CO emissions [1]: United States 17.5 Australia 16.75 Canada 14.67 Russian Fed. 12.18 South Korea 11.78 Norway 11.71 Finland 11.53 Greenland 11.07 Netherlands 10.96 ... China 6.18 Mexico 3.91 Brazil 2.15 India 1.64 If lack of initiative is to blame we need to point the right culprits. [1] htt…

I think the idea is that even if all the current top emitters do take initiative, China and India's emissions are expected to grow quickly. The losses will win over the gains.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#856
post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

> Concerns about VR porn being too realistic will be raised in serious circles.

Too realistic? Probably quite the opposite?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#857
post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

> and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. Bzzzt! This prediction won't even make it until November of this year. Trade war will wrap up just in time for elections... Magic! > VR will take off big time. Is this a prediction from 1999?

> Is this a prediction from 1999?

The VR prediction is the one I believe most strongly. I am absolutely confident VR will take off big time.

It is a shame Valve is a private company and Oculus is a fraction of FB's stock portfolio (doesn't help that it is already overvalued at 2 billion). I would have invested in Valve eyes closed.

Hope a competent new VR studio or VR only public company shows up. I want to invest.

______________

The way I see it, technical advances in 2D gaming have maxxed out. The only way to out do your competitor on graphics will be to move to VR, AR or legitimate gesture controls. The way I see it any of these picking up will inadvertently lead to the others gaining popularity too.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#858
post #666

1. Deep learning will enter its next wave with increased biomimicry end efficiency. Ai will continue to evolve linearly. AGI will still be decades off. 2. Psychidelics will again enter the public sphere and we will see phychidelic therapy in the UK/US. They will also lead the development of a new theory of the mind and consiousness that enter the mainstream. 3. Plant/fungus based food will continue to expand while me…

> 4. Ai in healthcare will allow for decentralised expertise. The role and power of nurses will expand. Can you expand on this?

Tele-medicine could be a part of this - I have seen a rise in online services where patients can receive a diagnosis and some prescriptions by text/video chat with a doctor or nurse. I think this will likely continue expanding, perhaps even including decentralized, robotic surgery (see Intuitive Surgical), though I doubt this will ever be fully automated.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#859
I don't normally try to predict out 10 years, but I'll throw a few out, with (importantly) the corresponding probabilities I'd assign off the top of my head.

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Safe predictions

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1. Deep Fakes will NOT substantially alter public discourse or cause a widespread erosion of public trust. (0.78)

To be sure, there will definitely be a lot of hand wringing, particularly among older generations, but younger generations will quickly adjust the same way they adjusted to Photoshop. For the most part, nothing will change.

2. Machine Learning will become widely regarded as a dead end for real AI progress. (0.65)

This is already a non-niche opinion, but by the start of 2030, it will be the consensus of almost everyone in the field, and current claims about massive progress from systems like GPT-2 will be widely seen as hopelessly naive in hindsight.

3. Chrome will still be the dominant browser. (0.7)

No other browser will have passed Chrome in market share. This doesn't mean they won't be making progress, just that 10 years is not enough time for anyone to catch up.

4. Javascript will still be the dominant language on the web. (0.95)

WASM will open up a lot of interesting opportunities and make a lot of cool technologies possible. Most web devs will ignore it, and most web coding will still be done in Javascript. Sorry, Bernhardt.

5. PCs will still be around, people will still buy laptops. (0.9)

The mass migration to tablets and obsoletion of PCs that people have been talking about forever will still not have happened. The PC's place as a non-niche, common consumer device will be reinforced by the continued rise of convertible laptops, which will make tablets less distinct and less attractive on metrics other than cost.

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Risky predictions

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6. Krita (specifically Krita) will become reasonably competitive with programs like Clip Studio. (0.35)

Krita will occupy the same space as Blender, in which it will be regarded by the general public as a similarly viable, serious contender with professional programs.

7. Matrix will become a defacto standard in the Open Source & security community over platforms like Signal, Wire, etc... (0.3)

Interoperability and more open clients will cause a snowball effect. Platforms like Signal will still have better security, but that won't matter. Everyone will recommend that you use Matrix purely because it works with everything, and will have good enough security for most things.

8. Apple will swallow its pride and make a convertible Macbook with a touchscreen. (0.4)

The argument that consumers widely don't want touchscreens on Laptops will become impossible to defend. There will be a Macbook that has one, and it will probably be a convertible. The iOS and Mac OS merger may also happen, which will make iPads into a paired-down version of the Macbook, rather than a completely separate product.

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Out-there predictions

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9. Mastodon will become a 'serious' Twitter competitor among the general public. (0.15)

Mastodon will not only still be around, and will not only still be usable for niche communities, it will be seen in the general, non-techy public as a reasonable alternative to Twitter, and Twitter will be forced to respond to it, particularly where younger generations are concerned.

10. Eating meat will be a political indicator. (0.15)

Currently, I can make a reasonable prediction that if you don't eat meat, you lean Democratic, but enough Democrats eat meat that I can't really make a prediction in the opposite direction. By 2030 I'll be able to -- if you do eat meat, I'll be able to make a reasonable prediction that you probably lean Republican.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#860
post #666

1. Deep learning will enter its next wave with increased biomimicry end efficiency. Ai will continue to evolve linearly. AGI will still be decades off. 2. Psychidelics will again enter the public sphere and we will see phychidelic therapy in the UK/US. They will also lead the development of a new theory of the mind and consiousness that enter the mainstream. 3. Plant/fungus based food will continue to expand while me…

> 7. Apple will enter healthcare in a big way. Medical functionality will enter consumer electronics and continue to push data driven preventative heathcare foreward.

This one I believe most. Will be very surprised if it does not turn out to be true.

> 12. Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate.

Make This Happen !

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