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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#841

Post by b20000 »

aboodman wrote: post #768
b20000 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i don’t want to realtime collab. i want to concentrate and get my shit done. slack is a nightmare for example. there is always a fool constantly interrupting your flow.

The same technology that makes realtime collaboration (e.g., figma) go is the technology that makes it possible to build high performance single-user apps that you can open on your phone and desktop at the same time (e.g., roam). It's collaboration whether it's two users or two devices from the same user. The web will go multiplayer because it's the only way to make high performance UIs that are multi-device without…

as always in this industry, in love with the tech and not paying attention to how this can be abused

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#843

Post by ChadNauseam »

6t6t6t6 wrote: post #677
ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

As someone who has done genetic screening to avoid passing a genetic illness to my children, it is not as easy as it seems. In every IVF session, if you are young and healthy, they may be able to extract around ten eggs. Of those ten eggs, 50% will valid and will get fecundated. You are down to 5. Then, in our case, 50% of the embryos will be carriers and have to be discarded. You are down to two or three that can be…

Yes, this is a good point I didn't mention. The low number of embryos is a limiting factor on what we can do with this technology. I saw an estimate from Gwern (I think) that said we could expect maybe 1-2 IQ points gained per generation with current technology. But there are technologies on the horizon that would let us produce many more embryos, and when that's possible is when things start to get weird

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#844

Post by chabad360 »

Vox_Leone wrote: post #271

Real holographic display : To create an aerial hologram [or a 3d image in space if you will], you need something that will emit light at precise locations throughout a given volume. I'm investigating the use of Moller electron scattering[0] to create voxels in a 3d coordinate system. Two electron beams crossing and colliding will emit photons [voxels]. If you can orchestrate collisions in a very fast fashion at vario…

I'm curious if you've seen the work coming from Dr. Smalley's lab in Texas (don't remember which school ATM). They're using cellulose with light trapping techniques to simply move particles in the air and reflect light off of that.

I don't have any links on me at the moment but it shouldn't be too hard to find details on Google.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#846

Post by pydry »

DoingSomeThings wrote: post #513
eurleif wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tangentially related, there are a bunch of calculators out there for ROI on installing solar, but there doesn't seem to be one that will take into account the opportunity cost of installing solar now instead of waiting until it's cheaper. I would love to see one for that.

I've been thinking about this a lot with the current congressional action. I need a new roof ~now. But I have a lingering fear that huge product improvement will happen in the next 18 months due to added government money. I don't know enough about the industry to weight in that possibility.

I'd absolutely do it now. The price of solar has been beneath that of racks, mounts, wiring and installation for a while now. Even assuming a major breakthrough your costs probably wont change that much because panel cost isnt a big % of what your costs will be anyway.

There's also a risk that supply chain bottlenecks/cold war with china will drive up the cost & your electric bill is only gonna go up.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#847

Post by modeless »

7373737373 wrote: post #810
modeless wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it is not "very soon" because progress in hardware is slow and the hardware has a long, long way to go. But otherwise you are absolutely right and I agree 100%. Recent rapid progress in AI has convinced me that we will have sci-fi style androids walking around in my lifetime, and the consequences of that are impossible to overstate. Sci-fi gets a few things about androids wrong. #1, they will not be physicall…

Counterpoint to #1: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Yj-fFgff1fU

I rather think this video supports my point. This is the best we can do and it's so far from a replicant that it's not even funny. Most importantly it's not improving quickly, there's no Moore's law for this. The Hall of Presidents opened in 1971 and I don't think this video demonstrates very much progress for 50 years.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#848

Post by rishflab »

entropicgravity wrote: post #566

Personal vehicles will be getting both bigger and smaller. What's different from the past is that electric motors scale much better than IC engines. Both the world's smallest vehicles (kid's toys) and the largest vehicles (huge mining trucks) are both electric. First the small. Cities will soon start to ban all but electric vehicles in their downtown cores (already happening in some Chinese cities). The primary reaso…

Please change electric to battery powered... I don't think the largest mining trucks are battery powered. They have diesel generators that power an electric drivetrain.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#849

Post by jvanderbot »

Water management is going to be very important. Smart "grids" of water reclamation perhaps? Desal taking off? Water credits as part of trading or tarifs?

Secondary effects include smarter agriculture and more local ag -- near prolific water and away from central california.

Then there's water safety. PFAS is a big deal, and we're realizing how big a deal it is, and it's everywhere. Now, rainwater is unsafe anywhere on earth. [1]

Someone who can build a small, snap-on, reliable PFAS removal system, or create an energy-efficient system for district-level supply is going to be rich. Hell, is solar distillation effective? If so, why does rainwater contain so much PFAS? It seems filtering might be the only way.

1. https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/08/04/rainwater-everywhe...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#850

Post by pettusftw »

Spakman wrote: post #377

I'm not nearly educated enough about this subject to try to summarise it, but the research being carried out by Michael Levin's group into how organisms control anatomy growth is completely fascinating and has the feel of a breakthrough. Almost all the talks I've seen are good, for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-9rLlFgcm0 Creating new species without genetic changes seems wild!

I am also not nearly educated enough, and also following this work very closely. With the strides made in the past several years I'm always surprised I don't see it being discussed more (outside of a niche of academics)
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