Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#841

Post by hcarvalhoalves » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:24 PM UTC

air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries.

Per-capita CO emissions [1]:

    United States  17.5
    Australia      16.75
    Canada         14.67
    Russian Fed.   12.18
    South Korea    11.78
    Norway         11.71
    Finland        11.53
    Greenland      11.07
    Netherlands    10.96
    ...
    China          6.18
    Mexico         3.91
    Brazil         2.15
    India          1.64

If lack of initiative is to blame we need to point the right culprits.

[1] https://cotap.org/per-capita-carbon-co2-emissions-by-country...

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#842

Post by papito » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:28 PM UTC

niyazpk wrote: post #453

This is fun. Here are some of my predictions: By 2030: 1. Google shuts down at least one of Pixel Phones, Gmail, Google Cloud. Even after a decade, Google is not able to make a successful social-network or messaging application. 2. Stock market: Microsoft and Amazon at-least doubles in MarketCap. AMD will be at-least 4 times what it is now. Tesla will be 5 times by the end of the decade. FB stays about the same! 3. F…

Dude, Google is putting the Cloud on life support in 2023. It won't last this decade.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#843

Post by papito » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:30 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #102

the_jeremy wrote: post #67

* Moore's law stays dead. Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field (Stadia already exists, but other uses will appear). Probably offered by an existing cloud provider first. * Recession happens this decade. * Someone becomes the US democratic nominee with a UBI platform. * The US gets single payer healthcare. * Zoning laws become an e…

> Recession happens this decade. After any other decade, nobody would bother to say that, because of course there would be a recession (if not more) in the next decade. It is amazing that the 2010s didn't have one. But, as you say, amazing usually doesn't continue forever...

Astronomical valuations, and aggressive stock buy-backs makes this largely artificial. So when it comes, it really comes.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#844

Post by kemyd » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:31 PM UTC

scanr wrote: post #752

- Automation replaces the need to have a human workforce. North Korea murders 99% of its population and replaces them with robots. Kim still goes around factories pointing at things. - It becomes possible to literally program humans to do whatever you want them to do. Python is the chosen language but a lack of type safety results in an error that wipes out half of humanity. - We colonize mars but by choosing only th…

Bold predictions

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#845

Post by screye » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:33 PM UTC

sam537 wrote: post #806

screye wrote: post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

I agree with the last part about 9. But I think Messi will move back to Argentina. He is too much of a family man.

Part of it is wishful thinking. But, how wild would that be ?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#846

Post by hosh » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:33 PM UTC

1. e-bikes, automated driving and policy changes in cities over the next decade.

2. Evolution of computer technology continue to ephemeralize. (Buckminister Fuller). The rapid changes have reached a point where it is all but invisible to the average consumer. No AGI, but signficant social and policy changes over the next year as a result of cloud-based AI.

3. Fracturing and polarization of subcultures continue. Seems ripe for some sort of Black Swan tech or event to swing things into a different direction.

4. Major upheavals, scandals, excesses related to technology, privacy, comes into play, even more so than what we have seen with Cambridge Analytics. Tech, which had once been the underdog seeking to revolutionize our society, will now be the major point of revolution itself. Cherished values such as tech being "value-neutral", or that it is an enabling force for good, will be seriously questioned. The tech elites (engineers, designers, etc.) are no longer seen as the outcast nerds, or the heroes, or a force of democratization and self-determination, but as the villains, drawing much of the same ire that Wall Street has by Main Street. I expect to see more and more activism, and large-scale protests against Big Tech.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#847

Post by yatsyk » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:33 PM UTC

1. No self-driving cars this decade. Most self-driving car companies go bankrupt

2. AI winter. NN will be used for classification and deepfakes. No self driving and important areas were AI decision could kill or make harm. Military is exception.

3. Tesla will be largest car company.

4. Daily volume of GRAM transaction will be more than all other cryptocurrencies combined. Most of smart-contracts will be created for for telegram open network. Bitcoin will be used for wealth accumulation and at the end of decade will cost about the same as today ±10k usd.

5. No mainstream VR,AR etc. it will be used in niches like education, gaming and porn. This technologies will not dominate in these niches.

6. iPhone will look like current model but may be with more cameras.

7. China economy will be in depression next decade.

8. Russia collapses like Soviet Union, or may loose some territories.

9. US will be the largest economy but not with wide margin as most of the new business will hide from US taxes and regulation in offshores and crypto.

10. Search will be cash cow for google, but users will use search less and less during decade. Video monopoly will be more important for google at the end of decade.

11. Most content producers will try to escape youtube monopoly.

12. Most new code will run on webassemby runtime

13. Decriminalization of cannabis around the western world. Decriminalization of psychedelics in a few countries.

14. Few huge leaks of personal content and data. People will care less about privacy. Huge dirty secrets will be leaked but nobody care in a week.

15. More populist elected around the world.

16. Sharing economy will dominate all niches.

17. Multiple people rating providers appear around the world.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#848

Post by klntsky » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:34 PM UTC

Tech-related:

- Programming languages compiling to JS _and_ WASM will appear.

- Substructural type systems will be incorporated into mainstream languages.

- Technologies like Nix and guix will become the default for package management and CI.

- click-to-deploy self-hosted services that offer real privacy will become really popular (email solutions, ActivityPub-based social networks, personal clouds and such).

UIs:

- Popular apps will ditch scrolling from their UIs.

- Windows will start supporting tiling (as in tiling WMs).

Society-related:

- Artificial wombs will become mainstream as a more "safe" way of giving birth.

- Deepfakes will not cause any of the predicted damage.

- Cryptocurrency market will not grow significantly.

- Massive movements against ads on the streets will spawn. Generally, people will care much more about safety/comfort of their minds.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#849

Post by scanr » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:34 PM UTC

lewiscollard wrote: post #837

scanr wrote: post #752

- Automation replaces the need to have a human workforce. North Korea murders 99% of its population and replaces them with robots. Kim still goes around factories pointing at things. - It becomes possible to literally program humans to do whatever you want them to do. Python is the chosen language but a lack of type safety results in an error that wipes out half of humanity. - We colonize mars but by choosing only th…

I know some of these are obviously backed by winks, but I got a smile from this because they're only a hair away from being rather plausible. You should be writing sci-fi! > Potemkin jobs abound in a world that doesn't require humans to work to produce anything but needs to keep them busy to stop them complaining about stuff. "There is another theory which states that this has already happened." https://en.wikipedia.…

> You should be writing sci-fi!

Thanks! A few of these are the premise for sci-fi stories I never got around to writing. I'll send you a link to Amazon if I ever do put pen to digital paper.

> "There is another theory which states that this has already happened." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs

Haha, true. Also vaguely like the justification for the Matrix being like it is i.e. office jobs rather than utopia.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#850

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 4:35 PM UTC

[deleted]