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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#831
post #482

1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. 2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite. 3.) Financial downturn/semi-recession in mid-late decade primarily caused by excessive corporate stock buybacks artificially inflating stock prices. (Stock bu…

I would happily take the other side of the bet on EVERY item here! But I do appreciate your boldness in predictions.

Care to elaborate why?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#832

- Ads are no longer presented or indicated as such. All advertisement besides public space billboards are paid product placements, advertorials, and sponsored dialogue in TV shows. - The trend toward "authenticity" still ramping up in 2020 hits full swing, and commercial entities follow suit. Any announced commercial speech is viewed with distrust, while meme tweets are celebrated as "real." Corporate messaging becom…

Influencers: I think we'll start to see fully AI-generated "influencer" profiles start to overtake actual human beings soon - assuming there aren't some already out there. It will become increasingly hard for actual people to compete with these profiles for attention.

To your point:

https://www.instagram.com/lilmiquela/

https://kotaku.com/the-invasion-of-virtual-anime-girl-youtub...

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#833
post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 10. Still no hoverboards Man! You really know how to drop a bummer for your last one :(

They are testing this right now at CERN. If that antimatter floats UP, there shall be hoverboards for all.

Spoiler: it will float down.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#834
post #57

Healthcare and wellness will become the largest sector of the economy in developed countries. This will cause distress as countries try and mesh that with consumer product focused economic systems.

That's not a bad thing. How much of your GDP do you want to spend on healthcare? Let's suppose that healthcare costs half what it does (never mind how). What do you want to buy with the savings? More plastic stuff? More food? Or do you want to buy more healthcare? To me it seems reasonable for a society to spend what it has to on food and shelter, and some reasonable level on infrastructure and entertainment and leis…

Yes, I completely agree.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#835
post #771

There will be _the_ data leak. It's impossible to remotely validate who anyone is regardless of provided name, age, birth location, mothers maiden name, social security, previous address, contacts, fingerprints, retina scan, DNA profile ... This will end the privacy debate because all personally identifiable data will be public knowledge. All private information (stored in the cloud) will be easily leaked due to _the…

I think companies would fall back to OTPs to fix this situation

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#836
post #771

There will be _the_ data leak. It's impossible to remotely validate who anyone is regardless of provided name, age, birth location, mothers maiden name, social security, previous address, contacts, fingerprints, retina scan, DNA profile ... This will end the privacy debate because all personally identifiable data will be public knowledge. All private information (stored in the cloud) will be easily leaked due to _the…

>The sheer amount of fraud causes a contraction in the availability of credit with impact on the scale of the credit crunch of 08

You had me until this. You're basically describing a world where anyone can impersonate anyone else, and you think this would only cause a financial impact "on the scale of 08"?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#837
post #752

- Automation replaces the need to have a human workforce. North Korea murders 99% of its population and replaces them with robots. Kim still goes around factories pointing at things. - It becomes possible to literally program humans to do whatever you want them to do. Python is the chosen language but a lack of type safety results in an error that wipes out half of humanity. - We colonize mars but by choosing only th…

I know some of these are obviously backed by winks, but I got a smile from this because they're only a hair away from being rather plausible. You should be writing sci-fi!

> Potemkin jobs abound in a world that doesn't require humans to work to produce anything but needs to keep them busy to stop them complaining about stuff.

"There is another theory which states that this has already happened." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#838
post #685
post #672

It's not a new decade. The start of the decade is in 2021. This is just the start of the twenties.

ISO 8601 would like a word with you: https://www.iso.org/obp/ui#iso:std:iso:8601:-1:ed-1:v1:en

Actually you are right. It does make sense, I just always interpreted decade as a different abstraction.

2019 could be the end of "my decade" only if there was a year zero, which does not exist in gregorian calendar. The second millenium ended in year 2000, so the 202 decade ends in 2020.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#839
post #523

1. LEO satellites will provide Internet access worldwide. About 90% of the world's population will be online by 2030. 2. Drastic climate engineering will become a mainstream research area and popular controversial talking point. 3. Many more people will get blood tests regularly, for early disease detection and fitness monitoring. Both a Theranos-like fingerprick device and a tampon-based screening company will IPO.…

If the fully AI musician is actually originally programmed as an Emergency Medical Hologram I agree.

I hope he sings more than just opera.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#840
post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

> and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts.

Bzzzt! This prediction won't even make it until November of this year. Trade war will wrap up just in time for elections...

Magic!

> VR will take off big time.

Is this a prediction from 1999?

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