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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#811

Post by k_vi »

- No driverless on most roads, but we will see certain routes accessible to uber/trucks become driverless only.

- Second worlds get much better (fortnite etc), will see advertisement model take off.

- Nations finally start taking climate seriously.

- Bitcoin sees more adoption as the best performing savings system. Ethereum and blockchain hype dies down and serves only a niche.

- major advancements in "biobags"(ectogenesis) for humans.

- China starts abusing CRISPR. the iatrogenics leads to some epidemic.

- we don't live on mars yet. satellite internet becomes common.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#812

Post by runeks »

Interest rates will continue to fall.

US government bonds with a duration of 10 years and up will have a negative yield.

Some US corporate debt will have a negative yield.

Some banks will further lower the account balance limit over which depositors pay negative interest on their deposits.

As interest rates continue to fall, house and stock prices will continue to rise.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#813

Post by impalallama »

1. Another attempt will be made to have national healthcare in the US. We will still have employment based health care to some extent.

2. Lab grown meat will be sold for public consumption. There will be a lot of hit pieces about how it's less healthy or organic than "real" meat.

3. Autonomous cars will never quite be ready for public use as cabs or personal cars but will revolutionize the shipping industry.

4. We will have a treatment for Alzheimer's.

5. Streaming services as we have then now will be the same (Netflix, Hulu, Disney+) (that HBO one will hopefully stick around) and are the unmovable juggernauts of the industry.

6. Online etiquette is something people will seriously teach to children. Don't dox, "cancel" others etc.

7. Instagram or WhatsApp will be broken off from Facebook after an anti-trust investigation.

8. Wales will vote to leave the UK for the EU. It will be an even more difficult transition than Brexit.

9. Humans will go back to the moon, but not land on Mars.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#815

Post by david927 »

robcohen wrote: post #810

I'm impressed. Not one single person mentions blockchain seriously in this thread. I think micropayments are going to take off in a tremendous way. This will enable new applications and disrupt the advertising and content creation systems in place today. Stablecoins will be required, and will probably begin to take off once the next generation of blockchains launch successfully. Payments in general will move over to…

I would counter that all currencies in major countries will become digital but that blockchain will not be behind any of them and will have died out.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#816

Post by ash »

1. Google loses significant market share.

2. Fusion research breakthrough.

3. Software is more complex, slower and buggier.

4. Nothing major is done about climate change. Countries that try to do something, suffer economically.

5. Sea level rise continues the same trend as in the last 200 years. [1]

[1]: According to NOAA, only about 10 tide gauges in the world indicate sea level rise more than 5mm / year. I predict the situation will stay approximately the same. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#817

Post by GhettoMaestro »

scanr wrote: post #752

- Automation replaces the need to have a human workforce. North Korea murders 99% of its population and replaces them with robots. Kim still goes around factories pointing at things. - It becomes possible to literally program humans to do whatever you want them to do. Python is the chosen language but a lack of type safety results in an error that wipes out half of humanity. - We colonize mars but by choosing only th…

Hacked waifus. Lmao.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#818

Post by sequoia »

screye wrote: post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

> Also, Toronto/Montreal will become the Silicon valley of Canada, as skilled immigrants move to the Canada knowing they will never get greencards in the US.

As a (US citizen) programmer living in Toronto, I have seen this first hand: people moving from the bay, or moving directly to Canada because of a) the US having enormous lines for green cards and b) Canada aggressively courting skilled workers (you can get an invitation to apply for permanent residency online, before even coming to Canada[0]). In particular, you see many people coming from places experiencing political unrest (I'm no exception), especially Brazil in the last couple years.

I would question whether Montreal should be included in this hypothetical "canadian silicon valley," only because of Quebec's cultural protectionism, which borders on hostility to outsiders[1]. That said, rent is astronomically higher in Toronto and Montreal has massive cultural capital as a sort of old-world city in North America, so I could be wrong!

In any event Canada is definitely coming up (though to see it as "rivaling" the US would be misguided).

0: https://movnorth.com/process/

1: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/quebec-begins-controver... I'm not saying this exact measure is necessarily "hostile" but stuff like this definitely contributes to the perception that newcomers may not be as welcome in Quebec.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#819

Post by sequoia »

termy wrote: post #666

1. Deep learning will enter its next wave with increased biomimicry end efficiency. Ai will continue to evolve linearly. AGI will still be decades off. 2. Psychidelics will again enter the public sphere and we will see phychidelic therapy in the UK/US. They will also lead the development of a new theory of the mind and consiousness that enter the mainstream. 3. Plant/fungus based food will continue to expand while me…

> 4. Ai in healthcare will allow for decentralised expertise. The role and power of nurses will expand.

Can you expand on this?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#820

Post by buboard »

scanr wrote: post #752

- Automation replaces the need to have a human workforce. North Korea murders 99% of its population and replaces them with robots. Kim still goes around factories pointing at things. - It becomes possible to literally program humans to do whatever you want them to do. Python is the chosen language but a lack of type safety results in an error that wipes out half of humanity. - We colonize mars but by choosing only th…

well that sounds reasonable. where should i invest my money?
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