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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#801

Post by warrenm »

the_jeremy wrote: post #67

* Moore's law stays dead. Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field (Stadia already exists, but other uses will appear). Probably offered by an existing cloud provider first. * Recession happens this decade. * Someone becomes the US democratic nominee with a UBI platform. * The US gets single payer healthcare. * Zoning laws become an e…

> Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines

You just described a Chromebook or iPad

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#802

Post by disease »

bovermyer wrote: post #745

1. Populism reaches a crescendo globally. Nascent populist governments become more entrenched, especially in North and South America. 2. China supersedes the United States as the preeminent global superpower. 3. A conflict between Russia and China comes seemingly out of nowhere, but is resolved quickly. 4. Electric vehicles become more mainstream, but still do not overtake ICE vehicles in sales or ownership. 5. Canna…

Where do your predictions about Australia come from? Do you currently live thee?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#803

Post by louhike »

screye wrote: post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

I don't see electric cars becoming the norm on the roads, but definitely for new cars, yes.

It will take some time though to replace the majority of existing cars working with fuel.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#804

Post by nathanathan »

1. Soli style gesture controls will be ubiquitous.

2. Construction will begin on a structure that will be taller than anything we have now and use an active support system.

3. A child will be born that lives to be 234.

4. Andrew Yang will be elected to some office, but it probably won't be president.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#805

Post by slothtrop »

sktrdie wrote: post #792

- The PC as we know it will die and everything will be done through cellphones/tablets. This means that the mouse and keyboard will probably die as well and apps will adapt to other more common interfaces such as voice-commands. - Social networks that are less "company controlled" will become more popular: users will be able to change the algorithms behind what their social networks are showing them. They'll also be…

It's already fairly dead except for those who do actual work (or gaming).

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#806

Post by sam537 »

screye wrote: post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

I agree with the last part about 9. But I think Messi will move back to Argentina. He is too much of a family man.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#807

Post by jrumbut »

EamonnMR wrote: post #728
jrumbut wrote: post #397

1. I believe people will get tired of the daily Twitter war over politics and social issues. I don't think we will solve many or any of these issues, but just the temperature will lower a little bit. Can't wait to laugh ruefully at this one in 10 years. 2. Displaced people, possibly due to climate, will be a major problem and we will be judged by future generations on our response. 3. We are approaching a period wher…

> Displaced people, [...] will be a major problem and we will be judged by future generations on our response. Same could be said of the 10s.

Very true.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#808

Post by vorpalhex »

callaars wrote: post #748
air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries. Per capita, it's not the "3rd" world countries that are polluting, but the "1st" worlds ( https://cotap.org/per-capita-carbon-co2-emissions-by-country... ). I'm sad to see someone still referring to countries as "1st" and "3rd" world, as that's an incredibly outdated term. Also to refer to China as a "…

> Also to refer to China as a "3rd world country" is astonishing

> by China and 3rd world countries

By Mary and the guys (indicating that Mary is not a guy).

> Per capita, it's not the "3rd" world countries that are polluting, but the "1st" worlds

From your own source, the top polluters per capita are Qatar, Trinidad & Tobago and Kuwait. Qatar is wealthy, but probably not "1st world".

> I'm sad to see someone still referring to countries as "1st" and "3rd" world, as that's an incredibly outdated term

The AP standard was updated in 2015. The terms "1st", "2nd" and "3rd" world are still in common parlance even though the AP prefers "Developed" and "Developing".

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#809

Post by alekratz »

screye wrote: post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

> Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways.

I don't believe this (not to pick on you specifically). A lot of people forget about the rest of the USA, in towns with a population of I think that your prediction is certainly applicable to major urban centers. But for the rest of the USA, it will probably be longer than a decade before that stuff starts becoming the norm.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#810

Post by robcohen »

I'm impressed. Not one single person mentions blockchain seriously in this thread.

I think micropayments are going to take off in a tremendous way. This will enable new applications and disrupt the advertising and content creation systems in place today.

Stablecoins will be required, and will probably begin to take off once the next generation of blockchains launch successfully.

Payments in general will move over to blockchain - specifically layer two payment systems. We are close but it will likely be another year before the potential is obvious.

Other applications in blockchain will take hold too, but the ones above are the first real killer apps. Later it'll be peer-to-peer lending and a move to decentralized gig apps (like TaskRabbit or Uber on a blockchain).

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