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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#81

Post by johnwheeler »

RickJWagner wrote: post #75

End of the Russian/Ukranian war. US improves relations with China. Climate problems are shown to be less serious than previously thought. The rich get richer, but nobody cares because quality of life is improved for everybody. AI brings additional leisure time, which results in a worldwide resurgence in bluegrass music as millions take up the guitar, mandolin and violin. The biggest surge is in banjo, though. Billy S…

It's like Penn and Teller say: "Everyone thinks the world is getting worse, but it's always getting better." I hope you're right. Maybe it's just my age creeping up on me and turning me into a cynic. Anyway, good to know there's still people who think positively.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#82

Post by ZuoCen_Liu »

mythrwy wrote: post #30
ZuoCen_Liu wrote: post #16

Physical AI will make subversive discoveries that exceed everyone's expectations - space-time integrated computing, rather than the current three-dimensional spatial computing plus discrete time steps

I'm really hoping you mean substantive not subversive.

I actually meant subversive intentionally.

While 'substantive' would mean major progress within the current framework, I’m predicting a shift that subverts the current foundational assumptions of robotics.

Right now, we treat time as a secondary sequence—an 'add-on' to 3D space. Moving to a unified spacetime architecture isn't just a big improvement; it fundamentally undermines the discrete-frame logic that almost all current CV and RL models are built upon. It’s 'subversive' because it requires us to unlearn the way we’ve been processing motion for the last decade.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#84

Post by cons0le »

ZuoCen_Liu wrote: post #16

Physical AI will make subversive discoveries that exceed everyone's expectations - space-time integrated computing, rather than the current three-dimensional spatial computing plus discrete time steps

We can't even make a robot that folds clothes yet ..

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#85

Post by Schiendelman »

gota wrote: post #48

Dedollarization accelerates. I'm keeping that prediction for 2026 from a late 2024 thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42405149

What's the specific measurement you are predicting? What happened to the measurement you would've made based on your previous prediction?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#86

Post by cons0le »

techgnosis wrote: post #62

* Americans will get their first taste of extended range EVs (full EV powertrain with a tiny ICE that charges the battery) and they explode in popularity. It's the perfect vehicle for the US and most investment in EV charging stations will decrease. * Oral GLP-1s hit the market and the market shares doubles * Both OpenAI and SpaceX IPO * Charlie Kirk's shooter will be executed after being on death row for less than a…

The EV one won't happen because people here are fundamentally culturally opposed to EVs

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#87

Post by MichaelNolan »

Most to least confident:

1. Bazel is still not widely used outside of massive monorepos. (because its such a pain to use)

2. Solar power will surpass wind power in the US to become the 4th largest source of electricity. https://eia.languagelatte.com/

3. Starship begins launching real payloads, achieves reusability of the upper stage, and successfully does a ship to ship fuel transfer.

4. Tesla stock has a major correction (>20%) as it becomes increasingly clear that Waymo, Zoox, AVRide, and various Chinese companies are significantly ahead in AV technology. And as it becomes clear that Optimus is a sham.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#89

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 »

So far.. my track record has not been great, but maybe I was being a little too optimistic as I shuffle various futures in my head so lets start from more likely to more fun:

- Unabated push towards 'Snow Crash' level of extremely localized power structures at the expense of federal government ( think K shaped economy, but for governmental structures ) - Actual further descent into K shaped economy -- that.. I fear.. is a very safe prediction to make now - Midterms will see some localized polically motivated violence ( likely across the spectrum bar some pressura valve release ) - Shadow wars will continue - Bitcoin will crash; monero will replace it as dollar falls - Companies and government will desperately work together to contains severely distributed ASI level entity that exists as hidden braille invisible characters across all known fora - I manage to to move to full WFH - Valve releases HL3 on Frame - Fusion power will get closer by two kiloseconds

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#90

Post by wslh »

Crypto, as an economic and innovation ecosystem, is largely dead, with the partial exception of stablecoins (which are not inherently “crypto” in the ideological/decentralized sense).

The core issue is structural: most cryptocurrencies depend on foundations that fund development, marketing, and operations through large token holdings. When prices fall, these entities eventually become forced sellers. At some point, their “whale power” is not optional but necessary to survive, creating persistent sell pressure and undermining long-term trust.

Bitcoin likely has a longer lifespan than most alternatives due to its lack of a foundation, fixed monetary policy, and social inertia. Over time, it may absorb whatever residual trust exists in the broader crypto space. However, that does not imply indefinite relevance: Bitcoin could survive while gradually becoming economically marginal, not dead, but increasingly negligible outside niche use cases.

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