As an aside, when did we start using "bearish" and "bullish" to refer to sentiment outside of financial instruments?
Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
81–90 of 321 posts
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
#82As an aside, when did we start using "bearish" and "bullish" to refer to sentiment outside of financial instruments?
Anecdotally, I noticed it at the start of 2020, which coincided with the flash bang mass adoption of day trading apps, which has thankfully faded.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
#83OpenAI has changed education.
I'm a teacher who is constantly learning new things. I can learn things I would have never been able to learn before because of AIs like ChatGPT. My students are learning more and faster than ever before.
Learning Management Systems like Canvas and Blackboard made a lot of money. I could argue they are obsolete now.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
#84Yes and no.
I think it's obvious there's a ton of value in the product and it's a massive force multiplyer for certain types of tasks. But it inherently cannot be trusted and still requires someone with expertise to verify and implement.
I don't think they're going to achieve real AGI. I don't think we ever will. I think they'll get something "close enough" and claim they have it, but I don't think the path to AGI is through LLMs.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
#85I cancelled my sub months ago when quality tanked and answers got cagey. I have little faith they can provide a good product after months of dev, and communication with the company.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you are really claiming that these are the questions that people are asking when they say ChatGPT isn't useful, then...that is an unbelievably blatant straw man.
I’ve seen non-technical people ask the strangest questions that really don’t have a problem they are trying to solve or brainstorm. They think it’s just a game or fun joke tool and want to try and get it to say something silly. The technical people who reject it are quite curious psychologically, my personal suspicion is they are threatened by it. They get hung up on small hallucinations and then almost get giddy whe…
> They things I’ve had it do with me are mind blowing, my guess is the people who understand it and how to leverage it will increase their own productivity so much that it will reshape economies and put many people out of work that don’t learn how to use it.
This is the kind of hyper sensationalism that I'm talking about. Do you really believe that, or is this you extrapolating to what could be possible in the future if the technology keeps improving? I feel like that is where a lot of the arguments always ended up with crypto advocates as well, if you had doubts or questions about how big of paradigm shift this was going to be for the world, you just didn't get it yet because you couldn't connect the dots this early on.
I'm not doubting that the tool is useful, or that ChatGPT is quite an accomplishment, but I just don't see it "reshaping economies" anytime soon.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
#87I think AI is definitely a great technology but not to the extent it is being hyped at the moment. I am not necessarily bearish on it but not too bullish on it either. I will wait 3-5 years to see where it ends up. Right now, there are too many people trying to make a quick buck in AI. People will downvote me for saying this but it gives me Crypto vibes currently.
Also, would you really Trust AI for everything ? I wouldn't. Nothing beats human element. At best, AI should be used as a supplement to speed things up which it is great for. I personally would never rely on AI to do everything for me. Not to mention that it cannot be 100% correct.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
#88Is it really like crypto? I can think of plenty of ways it is decidedly not like crypto, key amongst them being an end-user value proposition that isn't inevitably some flavor of snake oil.
Agreed but the main thing that is reminding me of crypto in this case is the combination of hyper excitement, adoption, and evangelism of the technology, and how defensive people get when you start to ask questions about why they feel so strongly about it.
There is definitely value here, I use the product a lot myself, but I don't agree that the value is as high as the majority of people seem to think (ChatGPT is going to reshape economies, every industry will replace 90% of humans with some form of AI soon, in more extreme cases that AGI is close to happening, etc...)
I wanted to see if anyone here had examples or use cases that could make me think otherwise
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
#89As an aside, when did we start using "bearish" and "bullish" to refer to sentiment outside of financial instruments?
I am using it to reference the perceived future financial situation of a company so I felt like it was an appropriate term to use
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else bearish on OpenAI?
#90It's hard to say because of the compute requirements. Over time, local models will become much more efficient and "good enough" for most use cases.
But for a time, boundaries will be pushed that require more compute and they may be a good service to provide that. The hardware is so expensive I imagine their margins can't be very good though. I'd be interested to see their business plan, because the current version of OpenAI in terms of what it offers doesn't seem to be that compelling when extrapolated out 5 years without some other innovative products.
I honestly think Apple will dominate the personal AI angle once they get there. What's left is business and that will be more competitive.