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Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

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81–90 of 126 posts

Re: Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

#81
post #39
post #13

My unsubstantiated view is the growth of broad market index funds. Because billions coming in to buy and hold, why would it drop value?

Because the money is funny money that's not real or robust. The US dollar has lost 85-96% of it's value since the early 70's. Just my view atleast

The US dollar has lost 85-96% of it's value since the early 70's

Can you explain that? I don't really understand that sentence.

Re: Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

#82
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to speak the local language to live and work some place. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of migrant workers (temporary or permanent) around the world are unable to speak the local language upon entry.

That works in America and the UK because there are already large immigrant communities for you to arrive into. If you arrive in Japan speaking Spanish or Hindi today, how's that going to go? It's not impossible, but it would take a lot of time and Japanese culture isn't exactly known for xenophilia.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't or won't?

only so much space on an island. Japan is pretty crowded as it is, isn't it?

Not at all. It's largely a chain of mountains so most people live down on the coasts.

Re: Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

#85
post #51
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a source referencing the UK stock market: https://globalfinancialdata.com/stocks-for-the-very-long-run... "Between 1692 and 2018, stock prices increased at an average rate of 1.87% per annum before inflation and 0.36% after inflation, and with reinvested dividends averaging 5.04% per annum, investors received a total return of 6.62% per year. £1" Now, that being said, during this time frame, clearly the UK is…

I think it's hard to compare Japan with the US or UK or other countries because unlike those countries, Japan can't turn on what I'll call an immigration valve and just flat-out import people to grow the economy.

Don’t forget the high taxes on investments in Japan. Basically, US is good for investors but Japan is good for workers. Japan’s median wealth is higher than US.

Re: Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

#86
post #53
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mind explaining then? To me printing money is always bad.

Prices are a function of supply and demand, largely. New money being created and spent is only an issue when it durably creates more demand than supply can absorb. This is where inflation happens. With covid we had across the board stimulus that didn't care too much if supply was matching, but we also had supply disruptions everywhere. This is incredibly hard (impossible?) to do in practice, but imagine that you crea…

Median wealth is higher in Japan than US… it’s not all bad.

Re: Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

#87
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to speak the local language to live and work some place. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of migrant workers (temporary or permanent) around the world are unable to speak the local language upon entry.

That works in America and the UK because there are already large immigrant communities for you to arrive into. If you arrive in Japan speaking Spanish or Hindi today, how's that going to go? It's not impossible, but it would take a lot of time and Japanese culture isn't exactly known for xenophilia.

The xenophobia is the point of the reply I assume. Financial life isn’t that great for most of the world. People will go places for a better life. Language isn’t going to stop that. Xenophobia will.

Re: Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

#88
post #44

Imagine a stock market where shares _had_ to be held for at least a week. Possibly even one where each day it was a dutch auction match of buyers and sellers during the overnight accounting. I think this would be a healthier form of investing in the ownership of companies.

The LSE has an auction after the market closes IIRC. And these guys built an slow stock exchange, although their definition of "slow" is quite a bit quicker than yours:

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/06/iex-app...

There's also the LTSE which is an exchange focussed on long-term investment:

https://longtermstockexchange.com/

Re: Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

#89
post #40

That is not how inflation works. Anyone complaining about the government printing money has an incredible naive view on the economy.

Mind explaining then? To me printing money is always bad.

Go do some reading about inflation vs deflation and also how bank loans actually work in reality. These topics are much too complicated for it to be worth my time here.

Re: Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation?

#90
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to speak the local language to live and work some place. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of migrant workers (temporary or permanent) around the world are unable to speak the local language upon entry.

That works in America and the UK because there are already large immigrant communities for you to arrive into. If you arrive in Japan speaking Spanish or Hindi today, how's that going to go? It's not impossible, but it would take a lot of time and Japanese culture isn't exactly known for xenophilia.

It’s completely possible. Most people in e.g. Qatar can’t speak much Arabic. The most common languages spoken in the Gulf are Hindi and English.

I doubt that Japan will be going in that direction any time soon, but if they wanted to, they could.

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