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Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#81

Post by aqme28 »

dharmab wrote: post #26
smoyer wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

Presumably not everyone needs a hospital bed. Most are fine to take a few days of bed rest, many who would normally be hospitalized out of caution can be cared for by family at home with teledoc guidance, it's a small percentage at high risk who need hospital care.

About 10-20% of people need a hospital bed and we have concurrent beds for about a hundredth of that.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#82

Post by heavenlyblue »

mirekrusin wrote: post #51
DanielleMolloy wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany is close, they just announce new measures bit by bit every day. Next step not unlikely to be total quarantine.

Switzerland is in state of emergency since today, it's great because they can deploy military to help.

Does that assume the military is immune from the virus?

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#83

Post by JamesBarney »

makomk wrote: post #64
tonystubblebine wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was this the article you were reading with the 3600 days analysis? I just read it. Not sure what to make of it yet. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea...

The "Containment works" part seems questionable. In particular, South Korea almost certainly wasn't "tracking its first 30 cases very well, until patient 31 infected over 1000 others on a church congregation". Patient 31 didn't have any known source of exposure - she hadn't travelled abroad or had any contact with known cases, didn't even meet South Korea's criteria for testing, the most likely place she got Covid-19…

Many countries seemed to operate with the assumption community spread wasn't happening. And due to this assumption didn't test for community spread.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#84

Post by grawprog »

kstenerud wrote: post #13

It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…

>It's your typical pandemic response: - denial

- placating measures

- minor lockdowns

- major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason)

- total quarantine

- life slowly returns to normal

When in the last 100 years has this happened that you're basing your 'typical pandemic response' examples on?

It certainly hasn't happened in my lifetime...

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#85

Post by notyourday »

lultimouomo wrote: post #72
notyourday wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wait for treatment and vaccine. Isn't this a virus? There's not a single virus that we have a treatment for - we know how to deal with bacteria but not viruses.

You mean like aciclovir for herpes, or the various antivirals for HIV, or the monoclonal antibodies for ebola?

They are suppressors of symptoms/disease management helpers not cures.

Ebola patients either die or their immune system fights off the disease.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#86

Post by notyourday »

Leary wrote: post #43
notyourday wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wait for treatment and vaccine. Isn't this a virus? There's not a single virus that we have a treatment for - we know how to deal with bacteria but not viruses.

Treatment won't be completely effective but can reduce death rate. There are hundreds of trials ongoing, 1 or 2 or 3 may work well enough to give to people.

So this is 1-2 years out.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#87

Post by geverett »

drstewart wrote: post #19
kstenerud wrote: post #13

It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…

Total quarantine isn't happening in any western country

Total quarantine in Puerto Rico as well since 9pm on March 15th.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#88

Post by shock »

fuckknows wrote: post #79
phkahler wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's drawn out slow enough, the spread should nearly stop without lockdown once 20-25 percent of the population has recovered. Assuming prior infection offers immunity of course.

I think it's a pretty safe prior to have that our immune system will work effectively against this virus post exposure. This isn't the first time a virus has crossed the species barrier in all of our evolutionary history and we've survived so far.

I don't know we can count on that at this stage: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#90

Post by gomox »

pmoriarty wrote: post #63
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a reference for that as I keep hearing it repeated but I'm yet to see any real evidence for it.

Here's what Ralph Baric, an epidemiologist from the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, had this to say on episode 591 of This Week in Virology[1] a couple of days ago: Ralph Baric: "I saw some very interesting data from Stan Perlman the other day, who has been looking at serum neutralization titers of MERS patients from the Middle East kingdom of Saudi Arabia area and it's quite intersting that people peak fai…

Could you clarify this for laymen?
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