Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

news.ycombinator.com

81–90 of 99 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#81
More regulations More border between authocratic countries and western More military budgets, less economy grow More brainwashed people More monopolies in hi-tech, although it won't be monopoly but in fact 99% will go to 1-5 companies. More protectonism, less global economic grow Oil will be slowly going down in price. Although not that much for authocratic regime fall, they just become more and more authocratic. But at least it should make them eat themselves. Slowly percentage of retarded people will grow in such countries as money flow from oil decreases. And clever people will immigrate to west.

Elon musk will make some cash on tourists to the moon but nothing revolutional. Maybe they will make some hotel on moon for rich people to have fun.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#84
Tech: CRISPR-CAS9 and better bioengineering. It's slow going stuff, but hot damn, is it ever powerful. By definition it plays well with itself. The 'cross products' are tough to deal with, thus the slow going part, but when it does mesh, man oh man!

Geo-Political: Africa's rise. ~2.5 Billion people are going to be born in Africa in the next 50 years. By 2050, the median wage for a family in Africa is going to be ~$65k/yr (in 2010 dollars). Most families will have 2 kids or less there. Africa is transitioning from stage 1-2 into stage 3-4. From walking and bicycles to cars and planes. Those markets and those young people will be very thirsty for better goods, services, education, financial planning, democratic representation, etc. Generally, the center of global trade is going to shift from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean and the people that ring the old monsoon markets. Addis Abba's already has a metro system that serves ~700k people a day. The bullet train from Nairobi to Mombassa is already going ~300km/hr. Kenya already has a ~600MW geothermal power station (~1/3 of Hoover Dam). Nigeria's Eko Atlantic project is ~half done with reclaiming ~200 Manhattan's worth of land area from the Atlantic Ocean. It's 'Great Wall of Africa' is mostly done now and is proofed to the worst climate change can throw at it, due in part to the 8 weather satellites that Nigeria has currently in orbit. Africa is going to be where a young, vibrant, well educated, culturally diverse, middle class is trying to make it's mark and improve the lives of their children. It is most assuredly not a place of 'shit-hole countries', and The Import-Export Bank of China knows this. The West should know to shelve the racism, and fast, for the good of it's geo-political future and it's pocket-book.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#85
For the US:

With lab-grown meat agriculture has mostly collapsed, since most of it was either meat or food for meat production.

Most small cities are essentially dead, at least in terms of opportunities to improve ones life, since there are no jobs for low skilled workers. Those jobs were mostly meat plants or trucking and transport is done with automated trucks. There were other jobs but those where mostly in support of those jobs, or incidental to peoples life.

High Skilled workers have moved to the cities, but most of their income is eaten up by rent. Those who got there earlier and got a reasonably affordable place to live are making a lot of money.

Both suffer a lot less because things have continued to get cheaper -- you don't need to travel the world with good enough 3d glasses, most things we have physically today are available in "phones" (though nobody knows why they are called that anymore, as nobody use them to make old style phone calls). Without meat production, most oil-based transport and most stuff the environment is doing okay. It helps that not too many babies are being born (turns out, 3d porn is just that much nicer).

On an international scene things are looking much better: most of the world has cached up to the standard of living the US had in 1980, with the exception of basket case countries that are essentially still basket cases (North Korea, Eritrea). China has court up with the US and are beginning to face the same problems the US had, though somewhat dampened by the lack of freedom. Despite this, they have had to find make work projects for their people, and have had to grant more and more freedom to stay in power.

In short the world will be a lot freer, a lot more equal, but inside countries there will be a lot less hope and those countries will be much less equal.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#87
In 50 years time, someone on this list will be mostly (or at least directionally) right in their predictions. If they are still alive, they will be lauded as a savant and sage. The more outlandish the 2019 prediction was, if correct, the more recognition they will receive.

And thus all we will actually learn in 50 years time is that human nature changes very little. We will still retrospectively reward success based on chance alone, not distinctive insight.

In short, statistics will continue to be an underappreciated practice.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#88
The best book I've read on this topic is Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. [1]

It really got me thinking about the next 50 years now that famine, disease and war are all manageable. The next 50 years will have super human AI, billions of superfluous people and eternal life for the privileged few. [2]

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Homo-Deus-Brief-History-Tomorrow-dp-0...

[2] https://www.getabstract.com/en/summary/homo-deus/28074

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#89
post #4

I'm hopeful for a more cooperative human centric future. I think we have the technology to replace old systems and ideas. Things are getting better more then they're getting worse for so many people and I really want to see that pattern accelerate to the point all preventable disease is addressed and access to medical care is universal, there is no risk of famine due to technology advances in food production, there i…

> costal town for the few remaining rich people who have replaced the need for the lower classes by automation In this scenario there will be no industry left to speak of to support the automation. The remaining people, regardless of their initial wealth, will not be rich.

I don't really think about this in a real way. I think we are going to be ok, but like this is my fever dream

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#90
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> costal town for the few remaining rich people who have replaced the need for the lower classes by automation In this scenario there will be no industry left to speak of to support the automation. The remaining people, regardless of their initial wealth, will not be rich.

I don't really think about this in a real way. I think we are going to be ok, but like this is my fever dream

Rather nightmare
Post reply on HN