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Ask HN: What are you working on? (April 2025)

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Re: Ask HN: What are you working on? (April 2025)

#781
I recently spent a week building a pricing experiment to test whether moving OnlineOrNot from feature based pricing (upgrade to a higher tier for more features) to pure usage (all features enabled, additional monitors cost money).

Not your regular "idea" but still interested in how it plays out.

https://onlineornot.com for the curious.

Re: Ask HN: What are you working on? (April 2025)

#782
post #96

I am working on the sunflower plant density estimation problem. The goal is to be able to estimate the germination rate as early as possible. Farmers benefit from such information, because: - there are lots of expenses still to be made (fertilizer, pesticide, salaries), which may not be worth it if germination is under certain threshold - if detected early, there is still time to plant another grain or to fill up the…

Hey, this is interesting. I used to work on a somewhat similar problem. Our problem was more general, but one usecase is to predict the number of interactions between flowers and pollinators, given some initial counts. As these initial counts are obtained manually (by going to the fields, taking pictures and count, like number of bees within a frame), those count numbers are likely to be lower the the actual numbers.…

Interesting. Thanks!

Re: Ask HN: What are you working on? (April 2025)

#784
Quick project practicing working with some AI tools (Replit, etc) - https://www.tasktiley.com/ which is a task manager focused on building good habits. I was missing a year-long view of what had been completed (similar to what GitHub does for developers) so implemented a contribution graph for tasks.

Re: Ask HN: What are you working on? (April 2025)

#785
post #96

I am working on the sunflower plant density estimation problem. The goal is to be able to estimate the germination rate as early as possible. Farmers benefit from such information, because: - there are lots of expenses still to be made (fertilizer, pesticide, salaries), which may not be worth it if germination is under certain threshold - if detected early, there is still time to plant another grain or to fill up the…

Feel like this basically enabling the use of ANOVA? (Compares yields across different treatments (e.g., irrigation methods, seed types).

It is possible. However, getting accurate yield data requires a "smart" harvester that can produce yield maps. Many modern harvesters are equipped with GPS and various sensors, so it is possible. However, farmers are really slow to replace old equipment if it works fine. I guess there are some retrofit solutions for yield mapping, but I haven't investigated their affordability and penetration into the (EU) farming landscape yet. Additionally, there are other interesting parameters apart from the harvested quantity that can be captured (e.g. the quality of the grain itself, such as size, composition, humidity etc).

Re: Ask HN: What are you working on? (April 2025)

#786
post #96

I am working on the sunflower plant density estimation problem. The goal is to be able to estimate the germination rate as early as possible. Farmers benefit from such information, because: - there are lots of expenses still to be made (fertilizer, pesticide, salaries), which may not be worth it if germination is under certain threshold - if detected early, there is still time to plant another grain or to fill up the…

Interesting, I'm also involved in a project to do yield prediction, but with a ground-vehicle with camera's on top to drive between strawberry and blueberry plants. Yield prediction is huge indeed, because overshooting your prediction means seller stuff for a lower price. Undershooting means paying for someone's product to make up for the difference. Probably there's quite a bit of matchmaking in between those under…

> Undershooting means paying for someone's product to make up for the difference

Indeed. Making up the difference can easily eat most of the farmer's profits. I guess it is even more pronounced for berries when compared to grains, because they cannot be stored for so long.

Re: Ask HN: What are you working on? (April 2025)

#789
post #96

I am working on the sunflower plant density estimation problem. The goal is to be able to estimate the germination rate as early as possible. Farmers benefit from such information, because: - there are lots of expenses still to be made (fertilizer, pesticide, salaries), which may not be worth it if germination is under certain threshold - if detected early, there is still time to plant another grain or to fill up the…

Very cool, what type of parameters are within your control if detected early?

I am not sure that I understand your question correctly, but given more precise sunflower density estimation, the farmer has three options:

1. Plow the field and seed again (same or different variety or grain). This is a very crude measure, but it is sometimes the right thing to do, because as I said most of the expenses have not been realized yet (fertilizer, pesticide, fuel, payroll, paying rent for the land). It is also a time critical decision, because the window of opportunity for plowing and reseeding is not very wide.

2. Accept the lower yield if it is within a reasonable margin (e.g. comparable to the expenses to plow and reseed).

3. Do partial reseeding over the existing plants (without plowing). This is an emerging strategy with the proliferation of smart seeders, but it requires a precise seeding map to be created beforehand (i.e. based on the density estimate). As an advantage, you spare the expenses for seeds and plowing, however there is some disadvantage as well, due to the different rate of development of the newly seeded plants. Farmers usually need plants to be ready for harvest at the same time, otherwise the quality of the grains suffers and hence the selling price is lower.

In addition to these points, having precise density information after germination helps with the identification of problems, such as seeder malfunction (e.g. nozzles getting clogged), seed quality and meteo data (e.g. too much rain, low temperatures etc).

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