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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#781

Post by screye »

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California)

2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts.

3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company

4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too realistic will be raised in serious circles.

5. Intel will continue its downfall, and a new Chinese SOC company will rise to prominence

6. Water desalination will become a major industry

7. Towards the end of the decade, Nuclear power will begin picking up again

8. Canadian economy will start flourishing with improvement in weather, massive skilled immigration and the establishment of new Arctic ports. Also, Toronto/Montreal will become the Silicon valley of Canada, as skilled immigrants move to the Canada knowing they will never get greencards in the US.

9. Messi will move to the MLS at 36, and usher in an era of Soccer to the US, slowly eating into college football's popularity.

10. Cargo pants will become popular again.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#782

Post by r0rtega »

1. Ultra-fast internet connection, from nearly everywhere in World (5/6G, Satellites)

2. China's Aircraft future giant will be born

3. More tensions inside Europe, people will get defiant against the EU (for good reasons)

4. WYSIWYG app builder will be better and actually produce decent code. Famous apps will be built on this with a lot less hand-written code

5. First brain-computer interface

6. AI and computer science will continue to help all other fields without disrupting them

7. First real-world experimental attacks using quantum computers

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#783

Post by lewiscollard »

- Firefox hits 20% market share on the desktop, prompted by Chrome's nerfing of extensions in Manifest v3 (e.g. uBlock Origin won't work on Chrome anymore, forcing nerds & privacy-conscious people to switch). Firefox on devices gets a tiny boost as a consequence. ETA: 2021-2022.

- Tesla implodes as soon as a major manufacturer releases a high-performance all-electric car affordable by people on modestly-good salaries that actually ships on time. Shame, because the Cybertruck is badass. ETA: 2023.

- In other EV news: Electric vehicles will dominate in unrestricted motorsports (drift racing and some classes of drag racing come to mind). ETA: Rule changes to allow EVs will come in 2021. A couple of big-name drivers switch that year. Domination is established in 2025.

- We get a real, viable open source Linux-on-phone with all the apps we need. There's that Purism thing already, but that's flagship money; this will be boosted by the Pinephone (and whatever follows) being cheap enough that almost every hacker will buy one (Android and iOS will continue to dominate the mainstream). ETA: 2021.

- Attacks in the Spectre/Meltdown genre (side-channel attacks on CPUs) get frighteningly good, and impossible to defend against. By the end of the decade we may need to either simplify processor design massively (and take the performance hit) or abandon the idea that processes can be effectively separated at all. ETA: new attack at least once every year of the decade. Complete rethink of processor design before 2030.

- A data breach on an unimaginable scale will happen. The Big One will be a tracking or analytics or advertising company. Equifax was bad, but this will be everyone's personal preferences, porn preferences, and (subset of) browsing history, which will easily be linked to identifiable people. ETA: any time now.

- House prices in the United Kingdom collapse. This causes global ripples similar to 2007-2008, in which we find out just how much of the financial system is betting on an asset price to keep going up, forever. Massive social unrest over the attendant bailouts. "That which cannot go on forever, won't". ETA: 2025. (I have hilariously mistimed this one in the past!)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#784

Post by orsenthil »

* Self Driving Cars become a reality. All Cars have self-driving capabilities. * IDE's become better and assist programmers further and programmers continue to enjoy programming. * Learning becomes easier assisted by computers. Kids benefit a lot and become equipped to solve harder problems.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#785

Post by TrueGeek »

grumple wrote: post #699
air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

You had me up until here: 'Web development matures and a "standard" stack is accepted, all in JS.' The Node ecosystem is a mess and it starts with core being a hodgepodge of deprecated mush. I think it's more likely that wasm picks up steam. Rails, PHP, Django, etc aren't going anywhere.

It's no mistake that 7 and 8 and next to each other

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#786

Post by username90 »

hilbert42 wrote: post #773

2000 was the millennium for those who could not count. 2001 was the millennium for those of us who could. 2020 is the decade for those who still cannot count. Therefore, I will wait until next year for the third decade of the 21st Century to come around before I make my predictions. ...And such a simple counting error on Hacker News too. Oh dear, oh dear! What next? __ EVEN MORE ERRORS: "2020's version of https://new…

Don't you know that we start counting from 0?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#787

Post by [deleted] »

bsenftner wrote: post #766
scanr wrote: post #752

- Automation replaces the need to have a human workforce. North Korea murders 99% of its population and replaces them with robots. Kim still goes around factories pointing at things. - It becomes possible to literally program humans to do whatever you want them to do. Python is the chosen language but a lack of type safety results in an error that wipes out half of humanity. - We colonize mars but by choosing only th…

Several of these would be great satire films. :)

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#788

Post by bsenftner »

Human stupidity finally catches up, and it's not pretty:

* The 2020 election in the USA is extremely hard on the nation's moral, as Trump appears to win in a landslide, but is quickly uncovered as a massive hack of the popular vote, well as the electoral college, as well as a coordinated deep fake news with Anderson Cooper and other network anchors faked and reporting a Trump landslide.

* Anti-vaxers have their ultimate success by triggering epidemics that wipe out large portions of the 60+ population in the US.

* The rapid death rate of older US citizens triggers a real estate collapse as the younger generations have no economic capacity to absorb the monumental number of luxury boomer homes entering the market.

* The US real estate collapse cascades and trillions of dollars of wealth evaporate over night.

* The US Federal Reserve tries drastic measures, but the international community has had enough of the USA's predatory policies and the poor choice of the Yuan becomes the new international currency of business.

* Attempting a return to relevancy, the US Dollar is converted into a cryptocurrency, but a poor technical implementation leaves an exploit exposed, and the entirety of the US's liquid currency is stolen in a single day's coordinated attack.

* The unreal aspect of all of the USA's poor decisions cascading into such a terrible situation, suicide rates in the US skyrocket. Those that choose life tell themselves "at least its not as bad here as in the UK."

* The UK has the same problems as the US, only their volume is 11 where in the US the terror volume is 10. The UK formally adopts "The Purge" as a means of resolving their differences.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#790

Post by mzitelli »

Some ones that come to mind:

1. Unemployment due to AI and automation will be moderate, mostly affected by the transport sector as autonomous driving improves.

2. The political discourses will tend to extremes because the political arena is now in social media. Image ads generated by GANs and optimized for conversion will be widely used, memetics will be more relevant than ever.

3. The run for exploration of the pacific will intensify, big companies will invade small islands for mineral exploration. It will be the new US and China economical battleground.

4. Financial solutions that democratize access to markets will grow. Billions more will have access to foreign stock markets. Educated high-middle classes around the world will be getting richer.

5. Service apps like Uber will be responsible for allocating significant part of the emerging countries work force. Work laws will need to be rethought around the word.

6. Software developers are going to be OK, the software dinner keeps happening.

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