Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#761

Post by zozbot234 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:21 PM UTC

naavis wrote: post #757

novaRom wrote: post #664

Pollution, climate change, demography, and continuing digital transformation will be common drivers of 2020-2029 1. Much higher personal income and property taxes 2. Planned economy in most developed countries 3. Mass surveillance: Government, local administrations, emergency services, fire departments, police - will have access to personal profile of every citizen (which includes not just location history, but every…

I don't understand the comment about comets/asteroids. Why would they be a viable way for interstellar travel? In order to catch one, you need to match speed with it, and then you are already on your way. You can't somehow hitch a ride with interstellar comets/asteroids and avoid using energy.

You can use them for gravity assist, and save on propellant. You can't literally "hitch a ride", but the next best is to steal some of their momentum, which is precisely what a gravity assist does.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#762

Post by warrenm » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:23 PM UTC

im3w1l wrote: post #194

In the spirit of the future is here just not evenly distributed: 1. Electric cars will go from niche for the rich to something for everyone. 2. Genetic testing will become even more commonplace and even more useful. 3. ipv6 will become dominant, but there may be holdouts. 4. Freezing your sperm / eggs / stem cells will become something everyone does. 5. Using a non-memory-safe language for servers will be seen as bui…

> Political polarization increases in the west

...But only because it's already about as polarized as you can get everywhere else

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#763

Post by yhoiseth » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:23 PM UTC

Shameless plug: If you want to quantify your predictions for (some) cryptocurrencies or stocks, check out https://www.empiricast.com, the no-nonsense forecasting forum.

Feel free to reach out to me on yngve@empiricast.com if you have any comments or questions :)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#764

Post by vcoelho » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:24 PM UTC

rraghur wrote: post #500

1. Renewables are dominant source of energy. Every new house is energy positive. Wind and solar are primary for industrial sources. 2. ICE vehicles are quaint. New electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029. 3. Autonomous vehicles L4/L5 are still 'just around the corner' 4. Ubiquitous Gigabit wifi/cellular/sat data across most of the world. 5. Masses still don't care about privacy. 6. N…

> 2. ICE vehicles are quaint. New electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029.

Maybe USA and Europe. South America definitely not.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#765

Post by npongratz » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:24 PM UTC

gepetoking wrote: post #359

im3w1l wrote: post #194

In the spirit of the future is here just not evenly distributed: 1. Electric cars will go from niche for the rich to something for everyone. 2. Genetic testing will become even more commonplace and even more useful. 3. ipv6 will become dominant, but there may be holdouts. 4. Freezing your sperm / eggs / stem cells will become something everyone does. 5. Using a non-memory-safe language for servers will be seen as bui…

>Use of force in the form of sanctions against countries that release too much CO2 Don't know about this one since the countries with the clout to impose sanctions are also by far the biggest CO2 emitters

Since when have the Powers That Be allowed trifles like hypocrisy or illogical hyperbole nullify plans for armed conflict and initiation of violence?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#766

Post by bsenftner » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:24 PM UTC

scanr wrote: post #752

- Automation replaces the need to have a human workforce. North Korea murders 99% of its population and replaces them with robots. Kim still goes around factories pointing at things. - It becomes possible to literally program humans to do whatever you want them to do. Python is the chosen language but a lack of type safety results in an error that wipes out half of humanity. - We colonize mars but by choosing only th…

Several of these would be great satire films. :)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#767

Post by rsynnott » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

jb775 wrote: post #482

1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. 2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite. 3.) Financial downturn/semi-recession in mid-late decade primarily caused by excessive corporate stock buybacks artificially inflating stock prices. (Stock bu…

> Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite.

What makes you think this? It’s hard to see anyone ever using satellite as backhaul except where strictly necessary; fibre will always win there.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#768

Post by JoeAltmaier » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

MachineMartin wrote: post #760

* 32-bit will still not die. Even in 2038 there will still be 32-bit CPUs chugging away happily - blissfully unaware of 2038-01-19T03:14. * Donald Trump will have finished his second term. The Americans will be none the wiser and will choose an even worse candidate. * Self-driving cars have taken over all traffic that has fixed routes in the Western world (e.g busses and trucks). * The number of people who care about…

Cool - we've beat some of those. John Deere has 80 million acres under automatic tillage. Millions of people are unemployable due to automation (except as starvation-wage service workers). And Moore's law has been faltering for years.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#769

Post by Razengan » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:27 PM UTC

Less a prediction and more like a hope/wish:

I hope some worldwide conversation takes place over the structure of human society and our endgame.

We have too much crap that's not conductive to a pleasant experience for any sentient existence. Things that used to make sense or were necessary once are no longer so, or don't have to be:

• The need for everybody to "work."

• Survival-of-the-fittest mentality (e.g. no safety networks for people who fall on hard times.)

• Every nation maintaining their own army.

• The obligation to remain in relationships you do not enjoy.

• Repression of emotional and sexual expression.

• Mass breeding and slaughter of animals for consumption.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#770

Post by KlintMarketing » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 2:28 PM UTC

Ai will get more widely used with video marketing and deep fake