Mid-level AI Knowledge Worker Apocalypse. There's been a few mentions of this idea in specific terms in this thread, but I haven't seen anyone really express the big idea yet. Which is: We won't have to wait for the proverbial AGI Singularity to feel the devastating impact that AI is going to have on society. It might take another decade to start, but then the devastation will begin. Anyone who works at a desk is at…
Humans will handle the edge cases and the gut calls and the cross-cutting concerns, but those too will be used as training sets for the AIs.
TIL: Just mix two big trends and see what you can come up with. Like: - Quantum Computing and WFH - Crypto and Micronuclear Power - Metaverse and Biohacking Have fun!
Having gone through a lot of top posts in this thread, it's kind of disappointing how relatively boring these predictions for the future are. That's a sign were in a great wave of pessimism of what the future will bring. That pessimism may well be justified, but there's also an underlying 'hopelessness' emanating from the suggested unambitious 'next big thing'. Otoh, there's no shortage of CGI moonshot projects that…
This is reasonable commentary. That said, it would be more interesting to read if you gave some examples of optimism that makes sense.
Don't bet on it. Russia has been totally screwed up for 800 years and will be totally screwed up for another 800 years, but thru it all, ya still got yerself 1600 years of Russia.
Energy? I feel like it's been talked about a lot but maybe not? Solar panels are dropping in cost at an exponential rate [0]. As of this writing, consumer "new" panels are $0.75/W and used are at around $0.30/W right now (I won't give a link as a Google search will do). Battery technology is also dropping at an exponential rate. I believe, with a little effort, one can purchase batteries at about $0.08/Wh. Taken toge…
I saw an article recently (here maybe?) that the world could switch to 100% green energy and make the investment back in 6 years. I haven't looked at the math behind it, and actually getting that many solar panels up is going to take some time too, but it really seems to me like this is the main thing we should all be focusing on right now. Because of high fossil energy prices, getting rid of Russian gas, and of cour…
That just another "study" of Jacobson, the Stanford professor that sue other scientists when they criticise one of its study and make Stanford pay for the lost lawsuit. Anyway his work is just not very good, unrealistic assumption everywhere, there a better energy modeler out there, look at the work of Jessie Jenkins, Tom Brown, NREL, Clack....
I don't know about "big" in terms of a viral hit, but in terms of what will change in our day-to-day experience... Here are some wild guesses, mostly along the theme of a societal conversation about and re-thinking of "sustainability" on nearly all levels. * Robotic carts that follow you around when shopping in dense, pedestrian oriented areas and/or stores. Might go hand in hand with the rapid normalization of e-bik…
> Robotic carts that follow you around when shopping in dense, pedestrian oriented areas and/or stores. I'm now imagining these following you around like The Luggage follows Rincewind around.
I'm imagining a robotic cart trying to deal with a kerb.
Personal vehicles will be getting both bigger and smaller. What's different from the past is that electric motors scale much better than IC engines. Both the world's smallest vehicles (kid's toys) and the largest vehicles (huge mining trucks) are both electric. First the small. Cities will soon start to ban all but electric vehicles in their downtown cores (already happening in some Chinese cities). The primary reaso…
Battery's DO NOT scale like you claim. A desiel semi is much lighter than an Electric Semi is. That's why Tesla Semi hasn't launched yet. They are currently trying to change the regulation for maximum allowances on US Roads from 10k to 14k. The Delta-V on an electric vehicle has the problem that the battery scales more proportionately to weight and range than a desiel equivelent. Desiel gas has a tremendous amount of…
That's why Tesla Semi hasn't launched yet.
On the other hand Volvo (and Scania) launched electric trucks years ago and I see them driving around all the time. So whatever is preventing Tesla trucks from launching it is related to them and their design and goals, not a fundamental problem with the concept of electric trucks.
Personal vehicles will be getting both bigger and smaller. What's different from the past is that electric motors scale much better than IC engines. Both the world's smallest vehicles (kid's toys) and the largest vehicles (huge mining trucks) are both electric. First the small. Cities will soon start to ban all but electric vehicles in their downtown cores (already happening in some Chinese cities). The primary reaso…
> Buy it for $70k and live in it for much less than rent.
what about parking, that will just become another ever increasing form of rent.
DC home electricity. If your future home has solar and local storage, and your domestic usage is mostly in appliances which convert back down to DC immediately behind the plug socket (most of us have this) then at some point we're going to start wanting to power our homes like houseboats or camper vans. Yes, this won't help for (eg) appliances with heating elements, I'm probably talking about a second discrete wiring…
> I'm probably talking about a second discrete wiring loop rather than a total replacement
I have considered this sort of thing for the basics around the house (in my head at least). A seperate lighting loop in each room + outside, comms cupboard and some usb/usb-c ports. Could be all powered by a couple of car batteries and not a lot of solar panels.
100% would do this sort of setup if I built a home office shed, but otherwise the plans remain in my head.