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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#751

Post by ksec »

niklasd wrote: post #735
ksec wrote: post #635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except we have clear evidence with all the countries listed above, SK, HK, Singapore, Taiwan that wearing a mask is effective. Even in many cases without social distancing. There are little working from Home in majority of the business in those cities, They have a much higher population density that has a higher chance of being infected with coronavirus. The mask also protects you from bad actors who are not doing an…

We don't have enough masks in Europe, and those few are needed for professionals. Besides that, I think that especially in times like this, it is important to stick to the recommendations of experts. Here in Germany, the expert recommendation is akin to the parent comment. These recommendations are crafted by people with a lot of expertise on the subject and who care for the health of people, and I think it is not pr…

>We don't have enough masks in Europe, and those few are needed for professionals.

That is the only valid argument I could possibly understand. Although I would argue we could have ramp up production line. And Medicals get priority with Mask.

>I think it is not productive to fundamentally questions their advice.

I dont know, but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, ( We exclude China for comparison ) 200M+ Population together has far fewer death than just Italy with a population of 60M. Let alone Europe. And people are dying.

But hey, I guess as long as the people in Germany and Italy and UK are happy with what is being done then that is fine.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#752

Post by foobarbazetc »

foobarbazetc wrote: post #297
edouard-harris wrote: post #239

Here is a rule of thumb that will be familiar to many who manage risk in a professional capacity: The time to get creative is when you face a capped downside on the one hand, and an uncapped upside on the other. The time to get conservative is when you face the opposite condition. The reason for this rule is that creative policies almost never work; but when they work, they have a much higher chance of working extrao…

It’s already too late. They’re on the Italy path. This “herd immunity” thing is nonsense. So much so that doctors and scientists are warning against it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-nh...

Here, we can stop “debating” dumb st:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy...

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#753

Post by foobarbazetc »

foobarbazetc wrote: post #307
cirrus-clouds wrote: post #135

Here is a discussion on Channel 4 on the approach taken by the UK government. https://youtu.be/C98FmoZVbjs?t=590 Debating are: - John Edmunds: a professor in the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Tomas Pueyo: his modelling of the pandemic has gone viral on the web: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... During the debate,…

There is no “UK strategy”, just like the number of cases in the US is much higher than the stats say but there are no tests for ordinary people. The “UK strategy” is “let old people die”. That “strategy” will be scrapped in the next day or two. Because it’s dumb. It’s like some “theoretical” thing that ignores what’s actually happening and what has happened before. Everyone is going to be Italy. Unless they’re China…

Told you all:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy...

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#754

Post by lenocinor »

ksec wrote: post #751
niklasd wrote: post #735

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't have enough masks in Europe, and those few are needed for professionals. Besides that, I think that especially in times like this, it is important to stick to the recommendations of experts. Here in Germany, the expert recommendation is akin to the parent comment. These recommendations are crafted by people with a lot of expertise on the subject and who care for the health of people, and I think it is not pr…

>We don't have enough masks in Europe, and those few are needed for professionals. That is the only valid argument I could possibly understand. Although I would argue we could have ramp up production line. And Medicals get priority with Mask. >I think it is not productive to fundamentally questions their advice. I dont know, but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, ( We exclude China for comparison ) 200M+ Populati…

It's not only this reason. Even N95 masks are rated only to .3 micron. COVID-19 is .1 micron. It will prevent droplets from those already infected but I don't see how it would help in the healthy much. Maybe it slows down the air breathing out? But I don't see that helping a lot.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#755

Post by mygo »

starfallg wrote: post #746
mygo wrote: post #712

Earlier quoted context omitted.

please distinguish between surgical masks and N95 masks. N95 masks, fitted properly, do help prevent catching the virus. For a mask to be called N95 it has to be approved by the CDC. It’s specifically designed to block >95% of airborne particles. That’s why they’re recommended for caretakers at hospitals and frontline workers dealing with infected patients. Replaced every ~3 hours and worn in combination with goggles…

> Surgical masks do not prevent catching the virus, but they help sick people not to spread it due to the mask catching some of the spray droplets when they cough / sneeze That's not true at all. There is a reason why surgical masks are used by surgeons, but for the protection level needed by medical professionals, it is used as a part of a wider system. Used casually it prevents much of the droplets in the air from…

All the health experts I’ve heard from (and two of my immediate family members work at hospitals) have said that surgical masks do not prevent catching infections. You breathe by suction. Your diaphragm create a pressure difference by increasing the volume of the thorax and the air rushes into your lungs to compensate.

The reason the N95 filters work is because when the air is sucked in, it must pass through the filter before entering your respiratory system, and that filter is designed to filter >95% of airborne particles (and often times even higher). For the surgical masks, the air just gets sucked in from the side, the path of least resistance. So the airborne particles would also just get sucked in from the side. The masks may cause changes in behavior that lead to lower infection probability (such as reminding you not to touch your face), but dipping your hand in glitter would be just as effective.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#756

Post by ptx »

odiroot wrote: post #631
starfallg wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the spread by just having good testing and case tracking capacity, and good hygiene. You forgot Taiwan, who is faring much better than all three of the countries you mentioned.

And they did it all without closing their airports! What mostly helped was lack of mainland Chinese people entering the country. Also Taiwanese wear their face masks religiously and are used to obeying the rules set by the government. Finally (AFAIK) they have a very good health care system which handled the cases quickly and efficiently.

They instituted a 14-day quarantine for travellers from mainland China on the 24th of February and soon after for Korea, Italy and Iran. These were all already in place while other countries were pretending everything was OK and advising people arriving from Italy to go to work.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#757

Post by ptx »

starfallg wrote: post #293
knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

> Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the spread by just having good testing and case tracking capacity, and good hygiene. You forgot Taiwan, who is faring much better than all three of the countries you mentioned.

Taiwan's extremely successful strategy combines thorough testing and tracing with other measures to slow down the spread, much like what the WHO is recommending but no one else seems to be doing.

Very early on they instituted a 14-day quarantine period for anyone arriving from mainland China (later expanding this to Hong Kong and Macau), Korea, Italy and Iran. As of today, this now applies to the entire Schengen area (i.e., most of the EU).

The government has also taken over mask production (increasing capacity) and distribution (with a rationing system and an online map of where they can be bought).

Their website is very informative, with very transparent information about how many have been tested, confirmed, recovered, etc.: https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#758

Post by Fellshard »

undefined-1 wrote: post #601
knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

It's worrying that the US might be doing the same thing but without openly saying it. Little is being done here about the virus. Most people can't get tested. The Senate took a vacation. The Republican Party doesn't want older and unhealthy people depending on social programs. Pray the virus away. Suffering will bring people to God. "I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the…

This needs heavy citation.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#759

Post by pms »

drm237 wrote: post #730
mgleason_3 wrote: post #728

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, that's a cynical view. Is this the backdrop for another push to end Obama-care? As in claiming there's going to be death-councils deciding to lives and who dies? But, I guess this question is just begging for all of us arm-chair quarterbacks, fear mongers and un-informed to jump in with anecdotes and opinions knowing full well that only time will tell which it is. Personally, I think only a few things are clear.…

Because COVID-19 has a higher infection/transmission rate than the seasonal flu and a higher mortality rate. The economy isn't shutting down because 68 people have died, it's shutting down because 61,000 people died from the flu and COVID-19 has a distinct potential of being significantly worse.

Actually, COVID-19 has lower infection rate than flu, according to WTO.
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