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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#741
post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worse, politicians (particularly Health ministers) have disporportionately high infection rates.

Not sure why Health ministers are getting shade for testing positive? I'd rather my top health officials actually have contact with those under them, than sit in a glass bubble.

They don't follow basic advice (e.g. don't shake hands, touch your face, etc), they don't close down mass events, they don't close schools "because we're not at that stage yet". The time to close them is before we reach "that stage".

Number of cases is a trailing indicator, which also only covers those tested.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#742
post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

> hundreds of academics already signed on

So I should listen to a bunch of students, astronomers and others over the Chief scientific officer and health scientist in the country? Riighht....

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#743
post #511
post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the one hand, we have people getting evicted from their homes and having to visit soup kitchens. Which translates directly into many years of reduced life expectancy, no?

I have trouble seeing a worse economy for a few months vs a highly optimistic 100,000+ dead having similar numbers of lost lives.

It's not just a few months though; a 0.2% recession (say) quite possibly translates to everyone in the future being 0.2% worse off, forever.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#744

The NHS makes a huge difference. As a single entity it can pivot in a way that I wonder if other countries can come close to. My daughters dentist commented yesterday that all her surgeries (and her team usually do 50 a week) had been cancelled. The reason? All the anaesthesiologist had been requisitioned as they will be required to do ventilation. All elective surgeries had been cancelled, and her paeds specialists…

It's definitely at an advantage over systems like the US, but the NHS is far more federalised under the hood than you might imagine and there are lots of countries where the government or other regulators can take control of private healthcare when needed so it's not as much of an advantage as you might think.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#745

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. No, that is almost entirely wrong. You can certainly disagree with their position but you should at least present it accurately. Their position is that this is a pandemic (i.e. spread too widely to eradicate this…

Europe right now shows the full spectrum of possible solutions. It is not as if draconian lockdowns are the only alternative. Look at Germany, for example. They've been using testing quite effectively and are also looking at primarily isolating vulnerable people. It will take some time before we know more about how successful these strategies are. Different countries are at different phases in the infection spread wh…

Growth in Germany is exponential. It doesn't matter how many people they manage to test if they are still going to wait and see before taking measures to reduce the infection rate.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#746
post #712

Earlier quoted context omitted.

face masks don't help unless you've got covid19 and are using it to prevent spreading. If you have flu like symptoms you should be staying home anyway.

please distinguish between surgical masks and N95 masks. N95 masks, fitted properly, do help prevent catching the virus. For a mask to be called N95 it has to be approved by the CDC. It’s specifically designed to block >95% of airborne particles. That’s why they’re recommended for caretakers at hospitals and frontline workers dealing with infected patients. Replaced every ~3 hours and worn in combination with goggles…

> Surgical masks do not prevent catching the virus, but they help sick people not to spread it due to the mask catching some of the spray droplets when they cough / sneeze

That's not true at all. There is a reason why surgical masks are used by surgeons, but for the protection level needed by medical professionals, it is used as a part of a wider system.

Used casually it prevents much of the droplets in the air from entering your respiratory system, as well as preventing a lot of touching of the face. There are studies that indicate wearing a mask decreases virus respiratory several-fold.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#748
post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

> hundreds of academics already signed on So I should listen to a bunch of students, astronomers and others over the Chief scientific officer and health scientist in the country? Riighht....

You could also listen to the Harvard epidemiology department: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidem...

Or the British Society for Immunology: https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-s...

Or the two distinct open letters from UK scientists, which are now hitting 1200 signatures total: http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on... https://sites.google.com/view/covidopenletter/home

If you believe nobody credible opposes the UK government, you've been fed a narrative.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#749

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With statements like "the markets are up", and the hyperbole of "so we're saying 'we want to kill 200,000 people'" and "killing everybody", which even the anchor has to reign him in on, Mr Pueyo seems like such a douchebag. he comes of as incredibly unlikeable (at least to me). especially compared to Mr Edmunds, who goes through how herd immunity is a good end-game in a measured and calm manner. to which he seems to…

Funny thing about this is that they don't disagree on herd immunity. They argue over optimal rate and tradeoffs (where/when measures slider should be moved). In this rare case Pueyo credentials don't matter much as he pretty much echoes open letter from scientific community coming from Italy. What is not mentioned is that buying a bit of time also increases a chance for many people to get treatment that is yet to be…

absolutely, although it's a balancing act. there's also a mental health component to isolation/quarantine, and how do you measure that? it's a tough and complex call in any case, and i'm glad i don't have to make the call.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#750
An interesting experiment is about to be carried out with the British as the control group.

The only thing we know for certain about C19 is we don't know anything for certain. The EU recognise that fact and are playing for time. The UK, on the other hand, is pretending to have a sciencey fix based on some adolescent game theory nerdgasm. Herd immunity can be conferred by both vaccine and disease. But there's a difference between vaccine and disease that seems too subtle for Whitehall to grasp.

The UK is planning for 60% of its population - forty million people - to contract C19. The gamble is that this won't overwhelm the health system. How? Because the government has told the virus not to infect people who might get ill.

In China, healthcare workers were at greater risk than the general population because of elevated exposure. The UK has told the virus not to infect doctors.

The big risk with RNA viruses is mutation: we could develop a vaccine this year that's useless next. Obviously, the larger the infected population, the higher the viral mutation rate. China and the EU are responding by locking down. The UK has told the virus not to mutate.

When declaring a pandemic, the WHO director-general said, “The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.”

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