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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#731

Post by isaaafc »

stjohnswarts wrote: post #695
odiroot wrote: post #631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And they did it all without closing their airports! What mostly helped was lack of mainland Chinese people entering the country. Also Taiwanese wear their face masks religiously and are used to obeying the rules set by the government. Finally (AFAIK) they have a very good health care system which handled the cases quickly and efficiently.

face masks don't help unless you've got covid19 and are using it to prevent spreading. If you have flu like symptoms you should be staying home anyway.

Given the incubation period is > 14 days, and more than just a few of the patients don't show symptoms at all, you'd be spreading the virus before you know it without a face mask.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#732

Post by paultopia »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #614
paultopia wrote: post #407

Insane. Here's the key line, from one of the people in charge of that clown car: "There’s going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows, as we think it probably will do, where you’ll want to cocoon, you’ll want to protect those at-risk groups so that they basically don’t catch the disease and by the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity’s been achieved in the rest of the population."[1] He…

Because this strategy only works if they can identify the point in question. Why wouldn't they, they know the rate of new cases. When it's low enough they lift the quarantine. Out of all the problems this seems the smallest to me.

They don't know the rate of new cases. They know the rate of observed new cases. They don't also know the innumerable little connections that are hard to lock down across and within age groups.

This is the sort of thing that confounds centralized state policy. Read, among other things, James C. Scott's Seeing Like a State

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#733

Post by bwb »

If you read the longer version of the UK's strategy that is not what they are doing... They are waiting until their numbers are high enough to justify lockdown and then lockdown as they know the economic shock is huge. So they wait until it is time, lockdown for 30 days, see if they can flatten the curve, then boot things back up.

The media picked up part of the story, but not the entire story. And, Boris played up one part to the detriment of the actual entire white paper.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#734

Post by germainelol »

jariel wrote: post #351
csomar wrote: post #338

Thinking about it from where I am right now, I don't think it is crazy. Let's think about it again: China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan. They are countries which are very connected to each other; and yet, somehow, they managed to contain it. It's 'herd responsibility'. The people are applying social distancing and hygiene rules, that's why it's working. It's possible, as a knowledgeable politician, that y…

"that's why it's working" It's only 'working' while the country is on lockdown, and FYI the country spirals towards economic meltdown. If they come out of 'lockdown', then 'it stops working'. See the paradox here? I really have no clue: maybe we'll develop therapies, a better understanding, maybe a vaccine, but possibly this 'herd immunity' idea at least on some scale. I really don't know. But coronavirus is not goin…

In Hong Kong, the only lockdown we've been in this entire time is forcing people from certain countries to go into quarantine. In fact, most of our cases recently have all been HK residents coming back to HK from places like London, Paris, Madrid and bringing the virus back with them.

I'd point out that the HK government has done an okay job, but by no means were the people happy with how they handled it. There were protests from the Hospital Authority demanding them to close the border to Mainland China and they outright ignored it.

The main reason why these countries are doing a good job is because of the people. You go outside and everyone has a mask on. Why? To protect each other. Everyone has been working from home from day 1 of this virus and, impressively, the panic buying only lasted a week or so. The people are in it together and I can't imagine the same ever really happening in Europe.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#735

Post by niklasd »

ksec wrote: post #635
lukevdp wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think masks are as effective as you think. WHO says only wear a mask: If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection. Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing. Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water. If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it…

Except we have clear evidence with all the countries listed above, SK, HK, Singapore, Taiwan that wearing a mask is effective. Even in many cases without social distancing. There are little working from Home in majority of the business in those cities, They have a much higher population density that has a higher chance of being infected with coronavirus. The mask also protects you from bad actors who are not doing an…

We don't have enough masks in Europe, and those few are needed for professionals.

Besides that, I think that especially in times like this, it is important to stick to the recommendations of experts. Here in Germany, the expert recommendation is akin to the parent comment. These recommendations are crafted by people with a lot of expertise on the subject and who care for the health of people, and I think it is not productive to fundamentally questions their advice.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#736

Post by tonyedgecombe »

paultopia wrote: post #732
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #614

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because this strategy only works if they can identify the point in question. Why wouldn't they, they know the rate of new cases. When it's low enough they lift the quarantine. Out of all the problems this seems the smallest to me.

They don't know the rate of new cases. They know the rate of observed new cases. They don't also know the innumerable little connections that are hard to lock down across and within age groups. This is the sort of thing that confounds centralized state policy. Read, among other things, James C. Scott's Seeing Like a State

Then start testing people from the population to see who has had it and who is currently infected.

This is the sort of thing that confounds centralized state policy.

The UK isn't America.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#737

Post by thom »

martinpw wrote: post #726
thom wrote: post #38

You can read some of the rationale behind the plan here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... I'll be honest, I watched the announcement on Friday in open mouthed horror. I can't claim I have a concrete refutation for either the broad logic or the specific evidence underlying it, but even the best case scenario is a disaster of historic proportions. I wish us luck. I wish the rest of the wo…

Just a note that this document is from 2011. I know you did not claim otherwise, but I had assumed from your comment it was a document prepared in response to the current situation.

Indeed, although I’m not sure what the utility of a preparedness plan prepared only after an outbreak has started would be, especially one created at the speed of the Civil Service. You can read more context (including the ethical framework and the individual studies used as evidence to underlie the plan) here:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#738

Post by samsari »

ctz wrote: post #610
mschuster91 wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good god, making the choice of killing people for saving on pension borders on Nazi-level eugenics.

Yes. We have eugenist advisors to senior government: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51535367

"Have" is a strange word to use to describe someone who resigned before they ever started.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#739

Post by drakonka »

I feel like this is what Sweden is doing without saying it. They have stopped testing anyone except the elderly, severely ill, or healthcare professionals. It kind of seems like they'll just expect most of us to get it with only mild symptoms since it's out there now anyway, and confirming a mild case isn't really going to change treatment. At the same time they are stopping gatherings of over 500 people and telling people to stay home when sick. Many people are now working from home, but schools are still open. But without testing people and proper statistics how do we know when it's safe to resume gathering, or go back to the office?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#740

Post by drakonka »

csomar wrote: post #349
Engineering-MD wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with this reasoning is that your measure is not a direct measure of infection rates. For South Korea, they tested a large number initially, and now fewer. We don’t know if it’s actually under control without more systematic testing and therefore data on infection rates. The other issue is that of getting the leak at the wrong time. If the UK manages to partly control it, but then realises containment will…

> We don’t know if it’s actually under control without more systematic testing and therefore data on infection rates. Death and Active cases are a good measure. Both of these are under control in SK vs. still growing in Italy/Spain.

But the original comment said SK is now testing fewer people, so how do we know the active case numbers are under control?
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