Earlier quoted context omitted.
What better plan for vulnerable people is there than isolating them? You also seem to be under the impression that the plan is for no lockdown. The government has already said that there will be increasingly tight measures over the next few weeks. I despise the current government, and have no idea if this plan is better than alternatives, but please if you want to criticise it, do so for what it actually is, not a st…
I truly wish you good luck. Planning for the virus to expand (rapidly) through the younger less vulnerable population to protect businesses and provide herd immunity is what was described. I understand they're trying to walk that back now... good idea! https://politicshome.com/news/uk/health-and-care/illnesstrea... The actual plan and how to isolate the almost 20% of the population at high risk is not outlined here o…
Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
721–730 of 772 posts
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#722Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some are against it, others (such as presumably a majority of those advising the government) are for it. That's just good debate. > It’s already too late. They’re on the Italy path. Well, that's pretty much the point of the policy. 'Already screwed this year, let's try to cope, and be less screwed next year'. I was very critical at first, but I'm more interested/satisfied with the response now, it does seem to be wel…
"I was very critical at first, but I'm more interested/satisfied with the response now" It sounds more like you're at the bargaining stage now, rationalizing why it might be a good approach because it's happening and you hope for the best. It sounds insane. Italy quite literally did the same model. Now they're in the worst of both -- mass quarantine / enormous economic damage AND the brutal human toll.
But I can see how it might make sense on a wider societal level, assuming everyone doesn't behave like me. (Which they don't, I've observed plenty of people complaining about how it's just 'media scaremongering' and 'just like Brexit'.)
I definitely think we're (almost every country is, save maybe Singapore) past containing it; so I can see how a relatively controlled exposure might actually be a good policy as far as managing resources, economy, and next season...
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#723Earlier quoted context omitted.
I truly wish you good luck. Planning for the virus to expand (rapidly) through the younger less vulnerable population to protect businesses and provide herd immunity is what was described. I understand they're trying to walk that back now... good idea! https://politicshome.com/news/uk/health-and-care/illnesstrea... The actual plan and how to isolate the almost 20% of the population at high risk is not outlined here o…
I watched the press conference where they launched the plan. That is emphatically not what was described.
The idea that a "second wave" can even be avoided or that infection prevents reinfection is not known. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidem...
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#724Earlier quoted context omitted.
"that's why it's working" It's only 'working' while the country is on lockdown, and FYI the country spirals towards economic meltdown. If they come out of 'lockdown', then 'it stops working'. See the paradox here? I really have no clue: maybe we'll develop therapies, a better understanding, maybe a vaccine, but possibly this 'herd immunity' idea at least on some scale. I really don't know. But coronavirus is not goin…
> It's only 'working' while the country is on lockdown, and FYI the country spirals towards economic meltdown. Nope. > In Taiwan, most residents carry on as normal, with offices and schools open. Many restaurants, gyms, and cafes in the capital, Taipei, are still bustling, although most premises will take temperatures and spray hands with sanitiser before allowing customers in. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/wor…
That Taiwan has 'less lockdown' doesn't respond to the fact that whatever the degree of 'lockdown' whenever it is removed, the contagion will grow again, and that any level of lockdown will have bad economic repercussions.
That Taiwan is getting away with 'less severe' lockdown is not relevant because:
a) They do have a really long list of measures (more than 120 published by their Gov.) that are unsustainable in the long run and
b) It's a selective example - most other nations need more aggressive.
c) Due to the fragility from 'a' and economic downturn around the world due to 'b' a deep recession is guaranteed in Taiwan.
The point remains: there is currently no rational answer to 'how to end the lockdown' while economies go down.
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#725Earlier quoted context omitted.
Europe is a chaotic mess. Germany is preventing exports of urgently needed masks and other medical supplies to Switzerland and Austria, Austria announced that no curfews were coming yesterday and today Tirol is under curfew and harsh curfew-like restrictions will be in place from Monday in all of Austria. I'm not really sure what the strategy is, the WHO recommendations after their China mission have been known for 3…
Not sure I agree with your assessment. Germany is doing pretty well at just 9 deaths on 4.5k cases. The WHO is not the only or the best source of recommendations, nor is this over in China. I'd be very surprised if they don't see another outbreak there now that this is a pandemic it will spread to Africa for example, which has a huge no of Chinese working there who will bring it back.
I think much of Europe is a little bit like this. Germany will probably be relatively well off because German culture is fairly anti-social, Germans are typically very healthy, and the healthcare system is somewhat robust.
However, I haven't seen any sign whatsoever of a consistent or coherent response to the coronavirus. I expect whatever response eventually percolates out will be fairly rational, since german civil servants are well-paid and competent, but so far, it's been all over the place.
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#726You can read some of the rationale behind the plan here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... I'll be honest, I watched the announcement on Friday in open mouthed horror. I can't claim I have a concrete refutation for either the broad logic or the specific evidence underlying it, but even the best case scenario is a disaster of historic proportions. I wish us luck. I wish the rest of the wo…
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#727Earlier quoted context omitted.
Please don't make comments like this on HN. They lower the tone and add nothing of value to the discussion. We have explored a little whether the population of Taiwan being somewhat closer to the UK's than the other two named countries was significant in a sibling thread. In addition, in the UK, which is the subject of this discussion, it is certainly the case that we do not currently have sufficient resources to cop…
I'd like to ask you to not make comments like the one you did — confident assertions about things you know nothing about, that you haven't made even the most trivial effort to verify, whether that's the population of Taiwan or the general relationship between country size and testing kits per capita. Regardless of how politely you make them, statements unconnected to any concern for truthfulness lower the signal to n…
Is it your contention that the countries you mentioned do have sufficient tests and treatment facilities available to successfully implement the "third strategy" advocated by knzhou in the comment I first replied to? I can see little evidence that would support such a claim so far, in this discussion or otherwise.
China's recent official statistics may not be entirely trustworthy: they showed the expected exponential growth curve earlier on, but then levelled off remarkably quickly. In any case, its strategy has so far been primarily one of containment, with resources focussed on one specific area, Hubei, where the outbreak was also concentrated at the start. It is not known whether China has an effective testing or tracking regime in operation at this point, nor whether it has sufficient resources to treat large numbers of people if they became seriously ill in the absence of that containment, as may yet happen when the heavy quarantine measures are eventually lifted.
Japan's official statistics have also attracted scepticism, with the suspicion that they aren't testing widely enough to get an accurate picture of how the virus is spreading.
South Korea has had possibly the most successful response so far in terms of credible raw numbers and as such it is certainly worth looking at, but the strategy there has also been primarily one of containment. Again, that doesn't tell us anything about whether SK has the resources to look after much higher volumes of intensive care patients than usual if those containment efforts fail, or if heavy lockdown measures were not attempted and instead that "third strategy" of test, track and treat were used.
The UK isn't just "slightly larger" than Taiwan, it has almost 3x the population and almost 7x the land area. As I already acknowledged in the other thread long before you replied to me, I may have chosen too strong a word when I described three countries including Taiwan as having populations that were tiny compared to the UK, but my fundamental point stands in that we should not assume a strategy that could work at the scale of Taiwan would necessarily also work at the scale of the UK.
You argue for fact-based rebuttals, but where is the evidence that your examples are countries that do have sufficient testing and treatment facilities available to employ that test, track and treat strategy rather than the stronger quarantine measures that most countries are attempting?
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#728Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…
But, I guess this question is just begging for all of us arm-chair quarterbacks, fear mongers and un-informed to jump in with anecdotes and opinions knowing full well that only time will tell which it is.
Personally, I think only a few things are clear.
1) Our society and government is totally unprepared.
2) This is going to be a bad year financially for most of us and a terrible year for many of the poorer among us. I just hope that we don't end up pushed yet another group into homelessness.
3) It seems like most of us don't know some really basic information about disease - like:
Q: How many died in the 2017-2018 flu season?
A: 61,000 in the US.
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html. And, nope, that's not 61 people, not 610 or not 6100. That's right, the CDC estimates 61,000 people who died in the US alone in 1 year from the flu.
Which left me wondering why hasn't more been done to stop the spread of the flu?
How many have died from Coronavirus? A: 68 as of today in the US. 3,199 in China. 6,515 WorldWide. 3,213 in China, 1,809 in Italy. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Time for an anecdote. My wife had a medical emergency about a month ago - before Coronavirus. The emergency room was swamped. Sick people everywhere. Some not too sick. A bunch who were really sick. The nurses were handling out masks to everyone asking them to wear them to avoid making others sick. It was crazy. I had no idea.
Why now?
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#729Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure I agree with your assessment. Germany is doing pretty well at just 9 deaths on 4.5k cases. The WHO is not the only or the best source of recommendations, nor is this over in China. I'd be very surprised if they don't see another outbreak there now that this is a pandemic it will spread to Africa for example, which has a huge no of Chinese working there who will bring it back.
I'm not sure german successses are anything to do with action on the part of the government. I've been consistently surprised by the abrupt reversals in policy - with border controls or school closures going from 'out of the question' to 'tomorrow' with very little time elapsed. I think much of Europe is a little bit like this. Germany will probably be relatively well off because German culture is fairly anti-social,…
That has not been my experience. How could the culture of an entire country be antisocial? A nation of hostile hermits?
Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
#730Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…
Wow, that's a cynical view. Is this the backdrop for another push to end Obama-care? As in claiming there's going to be death-councils deciding to lives and who dies? But, I guess this question is just begging for all of us arm-chair quarterbacks, fear mongers and un-informed to jump in with anecdotes and opinions knowing full well that only time will tell which it is. Personally, I think only a few things are clear.…