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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#721
post #592

AI languishes and self-driving cars remain highway-only, but self-checkout stations and simple cleaning/stocking bots become more common. Oil companies begin rebranding as energy companies and pour assets into solar and wind. Climate change continues to worsen, with deniers still prevalent. Craigslist gets bought by Facebook. Google tries to get into online shopping, fails. Desktops still on x64. Phones still on ARM,…

> Oil companies begin rebranding as energy companies and pour assets into solar and wind.

This is already the case. All the oil majors are now "energy companies".

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#722

- Ads are no longer presented or indicated as such. All advertisement besides public space billboards are paid product placements, advertorials, and sponsored dialogue in TV shows. - The trend toward "authenticity" still ramping up in 2020 hits full swing, and commercial entities follow suit. Any announced commercial speech is viewed with distrust, while meme tweets are celebrated as "real." Corporate messaging becom…

Targeting ads by tracking users will be banned in the EU, but micro-targeting will be possible (just pick the right influencer(s)) or might even become unnecessary.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#723
1. Central banks will continue to exercise more control of their economies - and market busts as we know them will be mostly a thing of the past (specifically their magnitude).

2. A reusable rocket will land on Mars, though I think it will be unmanned. There will be a very small and permanent manned presence on the moon.

3. Global CO2 emissions will steady out during the decade. (Not increased or reduced significantly).

4. The effect of autonomous vehicles: The price of car insurance will rise significantly, and human driving will begin to be priced out in favor of the safer alternative.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#724
post #394

At some point, electric cars will boom like ssds replaced hdds. People will see how low easy and cheap EVs are to maintain and the ICE market segment will collapse entirely. The speed of the change will surprise industry expectations. I’m also really hoping Musk and other space projects like Virgin Galactic surprise us all. Musk clearly wants to build out massive infrastructure in space. That could have hard to imagi…

This will happen, and cause lot of pain around the world.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#725
I'm Indian, so some of my predictions are about India.

# Global Issues

1. More pervasive surveillance states across the world.

2. Even more polarized politics across the world, with major riots between factions, i.e. hundreds dead as a result.

3. More Indian cities with unbreathable air. More toxic pollutants make it into our food-chain, and hundreds of millions of Indians and Chinese will find themselves unable to escape the rather drastic consequences.

3. Antibiotic resistant diseases are way more common, all because of how animals are farmed in the developing world.

4. The problem of corruption (esp. India) still has no end in sight.

5. China to be the de facto owner of many countries.

# Sci/Tech

1. Intel/AMD/Nvidia, Android/iOS will remain as dominant as they are now. But Android will borrow some features from Fuchsia.

2. China and India continue to install GW-scale solar energy farms.

3. Lab-grown meat available at your local grocery.

4. More electric car brands manufactured across the world.

5. Neural network will become more ubiquitous, often going hand-in-hand with IoT.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#727
post #592

AI languishes and self-driving cars remain highway-only, but self-checkout stations and simple cleaning/stocking bots become more common. Oil companies begin rebranding as energy companies and pour assets into solar and wind. Climate change continues to worsen, with deniers still prevalent. Craigslist gets bought by Facebook. Google tries to get into online shopping, fails. Desktops still on x64. Phones still on ARM,…

> Desktops still on x64.

Perhaps in the same way that the Apple II is still on the 6502

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#728

1. I believe people will get tired of the daily Twitter war over politics and social issues. I don't think we will solve many or any of these issues, but just the temperature will lower a little bit. Can't wait to laugh ruefully at this one in 10 years. 2. Displaced people, possibly due to climate, will be a major problem and we will be judged by future generations on our response. 3. We are approaching a period wher…

> Displaced people, [...] will be a major problem and we will be judged by future generations on our response.

Same could be said of the 10s.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#729
post #630

- Wave of antitrust legislation takes hold and some large tech companies are broken up or forced to sell, making their owners even richer. - traditional higher ed becomes increasingly irrelevant. A degree is still prized, especially as a way out of blue collar work, but it will be even more disconnected from one’s actual job. - The higher ed space sees interesting new experiments with new models of tenure, teaching a…

I think the China eugenics prediction is possible. If one major country does it others will follow, and of course the rich will want this to no matter where they are.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#730
Are these really negative sounding? Or is it just me?

Is it the retrograde politics that has infected our entrepreneurial optimism? Too much hype not enough delivery? Too much interwebs and not enough real human time? Ten years back, it seemed like I regularly interacted with folks that seemed to believe that, armed with an nvidia chip and some models and the ability to sling some js, they could be the next Zuckerberg like billionaire. The bulk of these predictions feel negative, like the party is over.

* Crispr or derivatives will be used to create cancer therapy for the masses. It will be in mass clinical trial by 2030.

* there will be three new bigger than unicorn companies. They will have combine tech with non-tech (like amazon) and 2 will be based out of the Midwest, maybe Detroit or Chicago.

* long haul trucking will be automated to the point that drivers start doing part time work via mobile connection. Trucking companies will try to capitalize on this

* there will be a common wearable that does a weekly blood test

* some major US corporations will institute mandatory gym/excercise time for workers.

* climate change denial will pivot into spinning it as a positive by citing a agricultural use of a previously unarable region. No major industrial country will suffer land loss due to it

* millennials will embrace suburban life and there will be a series of new banking products to facilitate later home ownership. They won’t use the old tricks but will generalize bundling and have one monthly bill for mortgage, car and some services. Think some sort of automated HELOC type package. Top 15% will own homes in less than 15 years which will be lauded for these programs.

* to go with the above, spending monitoring apps will become more normalized and more proactive. Actively discouraging users from buying when they are in certain physical locations. This will open a new business model.

* co-ops will increase in popularity, particularly for child care

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