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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#701
1. State of AGI - No AGI happens but AI bots with multiple pre-learnt skills would begin being available for popular consumption

2. Self Driving Cars - Almost all cars will be self-driven.

3. FAANG - Facebook will face Government action, will cease to be the biggest social network, will change market and be a major player there. Some non-US company is the biggest social network. Google will no longer be top player in any major market, but will continue being a huge company. Amazon and Netflix continue innovating and improving. Apple is replaced by some other most innovative consumer hardware company. Microsoft is still one of the top companies of the decade. [Obviously subject to non-occurance of major leadership changes; MS would have shrunk in the last decade if not for that.]

4. Social Networks: Centralized and private social networks co-exist. Data interoperability is possible. The market for Social Network stops increasing by the end of the decade.

5. Politics: Allegiance towards national governments is heavily reduced. People are more active in their local communities.

6. Religion: If 5 happens, organised central religion loses importance, but subcultures with eccentric practices and beliefs emerge throughout the world.

7. Recession: No major recession happens.

8. Space Exploration: Manned flights to other planets possible. Too expensive. Interplanetary civilization is still far-fetched.

9. VR: Headsets become ubiquitous. Developer ecosystem for VR is at the onset. Huge opportunities ahead. No existing major player/hardware company is able to make a successful headset in-house. An independent company reimagines hardware and software, ships well built and cheap hardware, and owns the market for a while. Followed by other companies shipping similar hardware.

10. Decentralization: Distrust in central government, currency, religions, news corps, social networks, banks will be at an all time high. Decentralization will be the popularly accepted and still debated by conservatives.

11. Education: College education stays, ends up being reinvented. Archaic colleges start losing relevance.

12. Startups: Building new solutions in existing systems is a hard problem. Startups appear to get easy and ubiquitous, but the ease of doing a startups is supposed to remain constant throughout history and future.

13. Environment: Companies and governments will have to take more action because of public outrage. The situation doesn't improve much.

14. Remote Work: Most companies allow for remote gigs. Apart from more 'hip' companies emerging, major companies remain conservative about remote work. Tools like Slack, Asana, Notion would become giants.

15. Cryptocurrency: Cryptocurrency enters consumer use. Multiple currencies compete initially; winner takes all. Social Crediting a major feature of the winner.

16. Deepfakes: Applications on it become popularly available. People realize it's just another fad like anonymous social networks.

17. Airpods and Audio: Airpods lead the headset market, big companies happen in audio space. 2-hour non-interactive podcasts don't work, some other format becomes the standard for the industry.

18. US, China and India hold the top three spots for largest economies.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#702

Marriages and having children will become less and less popular, and under-population will start to be a real concern for economies. Governments to start / increase incentives to get married and have kids.

Hungary has this:

https://ifstudies.org/blog/is-hungary-experiencing-a-policy-...

Some UK nationalist politicians have recently mentioned this approvingly. Traditionally, policies like this fit in very well with authoritarian populist governments, and i think we're likely to see more of those, so i agree with your prediction.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#703
post #690

Here are mine. Note: I've deliberately tried to be novel for a few of these which will mean they're less likely to be accurate. 1. A book written by a machine makes a best seller list 2. AR goes mainstream towards the end of the decade. Google dominates the visual identification of things market. 3. WebAssembly becomes pervasive on the client and the server. Side effect on the client is that it results in pervasive D…

> 6. PWAs become more popular than apps due to lower cost to build and higher revenues.

I beg to differ. I think centralized online market service will become so dominant, there is no need for a small business to build and maintain any kind of app or website anymore. This is already happening, take look Amazon for retail, YouTube/Netflix for film/movie and Spotify for music as example. And the market for this is not saturated, so I'm guess there will be more and more online markets pop up in the future.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#704

Tech: * Rdbms will still be then backbone of most internet facing applications. * Java will still be around. So will COBOL. * Python v4 will be under development. * There will be only 3 cloud providers of any relevance (AWS, GCP, Azure).

> * There will be only 3 cloud providers of any relevance (AWS, GCP, Azure). Is this not already true?

Haha, good point. I think there are some other companies trying to compete (IBM, Oracle).

Actually this is already wrong because Alibaba has a cloud offering and they will certainly be relevant in 2030.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#705
1. Concurrency platforms finally help to utilize multiple cores of a system, as result we will see many-core architectures with plenty simple cores

2. The consequences of quantitative easing will emerge and affect us all

3. Another cryptocurrency and bitcoin will form the backbone of a usable payment network with near-instant transactions for a low-fee

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#706

1. Next economic crisis will break down world financial order because interest rates cannot be lowered and QE is no longer effective. 2. Total meltdown of social & political order in middle east and latin america. EU and US face larger refugee floods like never seen before. 3. European Union dissolves. 4. Internet sovereignty becomes a common claim and at least one of FANNG will pull out of Europe and India

I'll eat my hat if the EU dissolves. Seems extremely unlikely to me.

Brexit seems to have killed that idea, probably for at least a decade. Britain won't rejoin but it will end up in a BRINO (Brexit in name only) type relationship by the end of the decade simply because the economic arguments will be overwhelming.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#707

- Ads are no longer presented or indicated as such. All advertisement besides public space billboards are paid product placements, advertorials, and sponsored dialogue in TV shows. - The trend toward "authenticity" still ramping up in 2020 hits full swing, and commercial entities follow suit. Any announced commercial speech is viewed with distrust, while meme tweets are celebrated as "real." Corporate messaging becom…

Influencers: I think we'll start to see fully AI-generated "influencer" profiles start to overtake actual human beings soon - assuming there aren't some already out there.

It will become increasingly hard for actual people to compete with these profiles for attention.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#709
1. Quantum computers are still not practical for attacking crypto keys with reasonably secure bit sizes.

2. We will see a practical application of homomorphic encryption for privacy preserving search, in a niche space at first.

3. The "gold rush" days of ransomware will die down as organizations start to take backups seriously, but the problem will never go away.

4. Related to 3., some people/orgs will still be using Windows XP, e.g., specialized hospital equipment.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#710
Fossil fuep dependence will be less but not by a dramatic magnitude.

The US will elect an extreme leftist to which as a response ,after 4-8 years Trump++ will be in charge

A lot more of the usual bad news stuff but with much less optimism which results in many systemic crashes.

A lot of the fad around self driving cars and ML will fade out leaving practical long term tech.

The internet's technical debt will finally call the collectors.

Dramatic move away from dependence on targeted ads to sustain web services and infra.

A payment app will take over the west like with China when they start catering to offline (cash like) transactions and please both mobile and non-mobile users (a great feat).

Deep fakes will creat a hype but fade away after a while.

Either america continues fighting both russia and china and gets torn to pieces from the inside out or most likely succumb to China, win the modern cold war against russia and give rise to China becoming a second super power rivaling america and dominating Asia and Africa,leaving Europe,parts of africa and south america (and some asian countries) to figure out how to restructure their economies. In the end it will be an energy war where the west moves away from fossil fuels and builds long term sustainable economy while everyone else enjoys cheaper fossil fuels as their sphere of influence builds up economic/military resilience against the west (I think late 40's and 50's will see everyone going green).

HN will still be the same. IRC will still be the same (less people though). Infosec will thrive while threats become even more adoptive and agile against mitigations.

International participation in foss will dramatically shape the culture and consistency of foss communities.

Consolidation of home automation/assistant technology.

Actual (dangerous), information and propaganda warfare will happen (2016+russia was nothing if you know much about WW2 ,50's america and communist propaganda)

And finally, I will likely be wrong at least 6/10 on my predictions. :)

May we all live in boring and uninteresting times!

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