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Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

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Re: Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

#71

Post by craftkiller »

kai_mac wrote: post #67

The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C with 66% probability was estimated (in 2022) as equivalent to 23 years of (then) current CO2 emissions. It does not seem likely that we will be anywhere near zero CO2 emissions in 19 years. We are heading towards a hothouse Earth without the technology to reverse this on any meaningful scale. So no I don't think humans will be more happy, I think they will be ho…

Resignation. As you've already pointed out, we're past the point where we could have stopped it. While I continue to try to keep my environmental footprint small, I recognize that the battle is lost.

The event that sealed it for me, was after decades of hearing about how we need to reduce our energy consumption to save our species, someone made an infinite energy pit that financially rewards people for throwing as much energy into the pit as possible. Bitcoin could not have come at a worse time. The modern LLM craze is not helping either but at least that isn't a literal infinite energy pit.

To quote the philosopher Robert Burnham:

  > You say the ocean's rising like I give a shit
  > You say the whole world's ending, honey, it already did
  > You're not gonna slow it, Heaven knows you tried
  > Got it? Good, now get inside

Re: Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

#72

Post by consumer451 »

kai_mac wrote: post #67

The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C with 66% probability was estimated (in 2022) as equivalent to 23 years of (then) current CO2 emissions. It does not seem likely that we will be anywhere near zero CO2 emissions in 19 years. We are heading towards a hothouse Earth without the technology to reverse this on any meaningful scale. So no I don't think humans will be more happy, I think they will be ho…

One interesting way to reframe the whole thing is to ask:

"What would happen if we burned all known fossil fuel reserves?"

The results would be truly catastrophic. This framing leads one to understand that carbon-based fuel must end, no ifs ands or buts. I feel like that should be the question asked, as the answer is far clearer than a 1C vs 2C debate.

Re: Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

#73

Post by pnexk »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #69
silver_silver wrote: post #64

My home country has a population that’s too big for the economy, so most people live in squatter camps and build homes out of scrap wood and sheet metal. The government provides public toilets (often portable because of land ownership issues) for about 100 people to one toilet. They eat subsidised (and fortified) maize for most meals and wash with buckets when it isn’t too cold. Meat is reserved for holidays where it…

Where is this? At first I guessed India. Now I am uncertain.

Sounds like South Africa possibly.

Re: Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

#74

Post by AznHisoka »

dudul wrote: post #63
AznHisoka wrote: post #38

No i am not optimistic. Though if you asked people this 25 years ago or 50 years ago, or 100 years ago they would say the same exact thing

Absolutely false. 25 years ago people were absolutely bullish about what was ahead. I wasn't around in the 70s but data suggests that people were indeed happier than in the recent decades despite inflation and political issues. As for the 1920s, if we only look at America people were on a freaking cloud after the end of WW1: cars, radios, massive economic boost after the end of the war. Yeah there was poverty, and so…

Conceded. I was wrong and am an idiot. Not just an idiot. The biggest idiot!

Re: Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

#75

Post by larrry »

senordevnyc wrote: post #55
thelastgallon wrote: post #5

No, it feels like its game over for most people. No more lives left to play. Most people whose parents went from farming --> jobs now feel their parents made a fatal mistake. There is nothing for them to fall back on. It is hard to go back to farming. Which is made worse because there is no land, the lands for sold for a pittance, which now costs a substantial amount of money.

I’ve never met a single person who wishes they were a farmer, but I’ve met a lot of farmer’s kids who left for other careers and have no desire to return.

Hi! A few years back I quit the industry and moved out of NYC. My goal is to live a humble life of subsistence. I’ve been told repeatedly by pretty much everyone in my life that I don’t actually want this, but the more active steps I take toward living alone in the woods, the happier I feel. I don’t deny extreme tradeoffs are required, but I grow more convinced that those tradeoffs are personally correct for me.

Perhaps not a common perspective (especially among NYC residents, city life offers a very different tradeoff), but just wanted to share that a real person does wish to be a “farmer” of sorts.

Re: Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

#76

Post by senordevnyc »

larrry wrote: post #75
senordevnyc wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve never met a single person who wishes they were a farmer, but I’ve met a lot of farmer’s kids who left for other careers and have no desire to return.

Hi! A few years back I quit the industry and moved out of NYC. My goal is to live a humble life of subsistence. I’ve been told repeatedly by pretty much everyone in my life that I don’t actually want this, but the more active steps I take toward living alone in the woods, the happier I feel. I don’t deny extreme tradeoffs are required, but I grow more convinced that those tradeoffs are personally correct for me. Perh…

Good for you! That’s awesome, I hope it ends up being as fulfilling as you anticipate!

Also for the record, the vast majority of my social circle is outside NYC, mainly in the western part of the US.

Re: Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

#77

Post by dryarzeg »

dudul wrote: post #61
dryarzeg wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm NOT supporting the OP, but I thought that maybe what's he's saying is somewhat similar to the following position: according to some basic principles of economy (at least as I know them), all resources are limited. Therefore, by taking up enough resources to "just exist", you may prevent someone else from existing, essentially "killing" them - because there's not enough resources for two of you. Alternatively, if…

If there's one thing we can be sure about it's that people starving in Africa are not starving because an American got themselves a new lawn mower. This type of discourse may have worked 30 years ago, but not anymore.

> If there's one thing we can be sure about it's that people starving in Africa are not starving because an American got themselves a new lawn mower.

Exactly what I think, personally.

Re: Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

#78

Post by dang »

groan wrote: post #66
Balgair wrote: post #52

For other readers: Pay attention to the vibes and evidence in this thread. Ask yourself how this community slots into your media diet.

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Re: Ask HN: Are people optimistic about the future?

#80

Post by CM30 »

Uh I think most people are extremely pessimistic about the future right now. The general prevailing attitude online at least seems to be that the world is doomed/society is doomed/bad times are ahead/climate change is hopeless/etc.

But my personal opinion is it depends on the timeframe. I don't think humanity will go extinct. I don't think all of society will collapse and everyone will end up back in some medival type situation until the world becomes uninhabitable or something.

Given enough time, I think society will recover, people will live happily for at least a while and things will look up again.

But I do worry about the short to medium term. More and more of the population seems like it's becoming unemployable due to increasing automation and usage of AI, prices in most areas have skyrocketed to the point that basic necessities are now almost a pipe dream, and the entirety of society seems like it's become like Hollywood or YouTube; a bitter dog eat dog situation where a tiny percentage at the top rake in oversized returns and everyone else fights for scraps. I genuinely worry that for many people, "hope you become rich and famous through being an influencer/artist (or even worse, gambling)" might be the most plausible way to get a decent middle class life.

And I definitely worry about the political situation. Feels like a major war is a decade or so away at this point, and that things like authoritarianism being on the rise is going to cause havoc in many societies.

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