Ask HN: GPT4 Broke Me

It is much easier for another dev to understand your complex system now, which makes you replaceable.

1. AI-assistence helps senior people even more that junior people right now. For example I can prompt ChatGPT far better what I want it to generate including some key points to consider that that juniors don't even know about. I can also start typing a solution with autocomplete in mind, knowing roughly how something like it will look like, to get optimal autocompletes over mutli lines, and can see right away if there are subtile problems that differ from my expectation. In total one senior + AI can compensate multiple missing juniors, but a junior cannot become that senior this way - GPT can be a good coach to get there over time, though.

2. This means roughly that companies will trim "fat" from the organization, but the remaining highly skilled people might earn even more (or at least not get fired) since they become more and more responsibility that was previously held by those fired people. It also means that bootstrapping something from scratch is now even more feasible if you're junior - these new AI-assited tools are quite good, and can augment individual weaknesses (like devs starting a company can use a marketing ai tool to build something good enough instead of typical abysmal UX/techblahblah raving about their product.

3. Both directions in point 2 basically leads to every dev over time becoming a manager: but not with humans as direct reports, but controlling powerful tools upto autonomous agents that execute unsupervised on nontrivial stuff. As software creation itself becomes a commodity, STOP VIEWING IT AS A CRAFT. its an industrialization moment, where especially the localized creativity/problemsolving part is automated away. Don't be proud of the code itself or similar, but about your ability to deliver products/projects in a fast and reliable way - so you can tackle more complicated problems within these products instead of always fiddling with the lowlevel details.

4. There is a paradox at play that is important to know: yes, we're at a race to the bottom when it comes to coding, so getting a software that does what someone needs goes towards (but not reaching) zero. Naively, this means that developers' time is also worth less and they will be earn less and less until being obsolete. But the cheaper something becomes, demand increases, since suddenly a lot of stuff is now in the financial range that it is worth tackling with code. I think its called "Jevons Paradox".

5. For you specifically, its simply moving up the abstraction ladder again, with prompting as a higher level programming language (but being able to drop down into lower messes if really needed, as always) + hard focus on the "shipping" part including better/cheaper fully managed hosting for stuff. Over a year, expect to do more different projects/products over the same time period and/or more sophisticated topics than before since you are freed from the lowlevel code monkey work rather soonish.

6. We're at the _start_ of the curve and times are wild, and my previous points already include a healthy future prediction (which is more like months instead of yers nowadays). Still it takes _many_ years until heavy changes in the economy really propagate through, since there are layers of people sitting on brakes. Computers and the Internet took (and still are taking!) maaaaany years to shift businesses, especially conservative areas (which there are A LOT).

Side note: while arguably there always might be some people left doing the really basics everyone else builds ontop of, who have to know their shit and go deep down the rabbit holes, there are concinving predictions that AI researchers will be jobless quickly, before many others, so I don't believe in that anymore. Better ignore this path when starting today, and strictly focus on raw shipping skills, which probably means managing/orchestrating some flavors of product-building-bots instead.

Bonus points: I'd buy the house, now, on fixed terms. Inflation is a thing that helps you here when you have a mortgage. Also when you are unable to pay the monthly rates for your house, what is different from not being able to pay your rent? Its not that much worse in practice. The only thing I strongly suggest is moving close to a big/growing city instead of buying property in a maybe beautiful village somewhere unknown, the curve is swinging back already with people moving back to cities.

Its slow erosion of our responsibilities. If AI can do some of your work with minimal supervision then sooner or later managers will figure it out and reduce you job scope. Get an intern to do it.

We are certainly not at level where you can talk to chatGTP and give it requirements to generate code, but who knows where we will be in 5,10 years.

As a reason for my 'doomerism' consider digital artists industry right now.

I can imagine that if you are concept artist at game studio, you are probably seriously worried. AI will not replace all artists - you need specific and consistent art assets to be created, AI doesnt understand fingers etc - but some of the workload can be done by pretty much anyone. Or have artists take AI generated images and touch it up.

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I understand that you're feeling a sense of uncertainty and anxiety about the future of your career in the face of advancing AI technology. It's normal to have concerns about job security and how automation may impact the field you've dedicated years of expertise to.

While it's true that AI and automation are transforming various industries, including web development, it's important to remember that technology also creates new opportunities and demands for skilled professionals. The key lies in adapting and continuously learning to stay relevant in the evolving job market.

Here are a few suggestions to help address your concerns:

Stay updated and embrace new technologies: Continuously learn and explore emerging technologies in your field. AI itself can be a powerful tool that enhances productivity and efficiency. By staying informed and incorporating new technologies into your skill set, you can remain valuable and adaptable.

Diversify your skills: Consider expanding your skill set beyond web development. Look for adjacent areas or emerging fields where your expertise can be applied, such as data science, machine learning, or cybersecurity. This diversification can make you more versatile and open up new opportunities.

Focus on problem-solving and creativity: While AI can automate certain tasks, it cannot replace human creativity, critical thinking, and problem-solving abilities. Emphasize these skills in your work and seek out projects that require innovative solutions.

Network and collaborate: Build a strong professional network within your industry. Engage with peers, attend conferences or meetups, and participate in online communities. Collaborating with others can lead to new opportunities and provide a support system during uncertain times.

Keep a growth mindset: Cultivate a mindset of continuous learning and adaptability. Embrace change and view it as an opportunity to grow and evolve professionally. Develop a willingness to explore new areas and acquire new skills as needed.

Regarding your concerns about UBI (Universal Basic Income) and healthcare, it's essential to stay informed about policy discussions and advocate for fair and equitable support systems for workers in the changing economy. It's a complex societal issue that requires ongoing dialogue and engagement.

Remember, you are not alone in your concerns. Many professionals are grappling with similar uncertainties. By proactively seeking ways to adapt and remaining open to change, you can navigate the evolving landscape and find new opportunities that align with your skills and interests.