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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#71

Post by chitowneats »

formerly_proven wrote: post #44
hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

Ordered by likelihood would be 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3 - 6.) being unfortunately a given (the question being where and when they'll attack) and and 3.) not very likely.

[flagged]

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#72

Post by ngcc_hk »

a) Russia and China will form a Sino-Russia protocol-empire.

b) Invasion of Taiwan started with troop movement and ship exercise first, possible started with embargo using Cuba Crisis American strategy of health inspection.

c) Internet splitting into regional-network with some inter-regional gateway (particularly along Sino-Russia plus one belt one road boundary).

d) WTO started to collapse and democratic camp vs other started to form.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#73

Post by lionkor »

hutzlibu wrote: post #65
birdymcbird wrote: post #15

- More gentleman layoffs at Google - At least 2 rounds of hard layoffs at Amazon, plus gentleman layoffs. No more Bezos billion dollar Prime Video projects. Shedding at least 10-12% of white collar work force to signal to the market they’re trying to prop the stock - The economic hard landing - Disney stock will fare much better under Iger - Additional rate hikes from the Fed, at least 100bps but maybe 150 - Twitter…

"but increasing probability Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine." Not likely. They would have nothing to gain from it. In their narrative, they are protecting the ukrainians ( which are actually russians, whether they want or not) from the fascist ukrainians. Nuking russian soil does not go together with this and Putin struggles already to not loose his base. And any military advantage this would gain, would be of…

But... how else are we going to keep up the image that we're on the side of the good guys?

People have been saying this shit for months, about how Russia will invade the rest of Europe, or drops nukes, or go crazy, and low and behold, they so far only did exactly what they said they were going to do, nothing more.

If you cant support the war given those facts, and need to make up stories about nukes and total conquest, then maybe war isnt good no matter which side youre on.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#74

Post by varjag »

hutzlibu wrote: post #65
birdymcbird wrote: post #15

- More gentleman layoffs at Google - At least 2 rounds of hard layoffs at Amazon, plus gentleman layoffs. No more Bezos billion dollar Prime Video projects. Shedding at least 10-12% of white collar work force to signal to the market they’re trying to prop the stock - The economic hard landing - Disney stock will fare much better under Iger - Additional rate hikes from the Fed, at least 100bps but maybe 150 - Twitter…

"but increasing probability Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine." Not likely. They would have nothing to gain from it. In their narrative, they are protecting the ukrainians ( which are actually russians, whether they want or not) from the fascist ukrainians. Nuking russian soil does not go together with this and Putin struggles already to not loose his base. And any military advantage this would gain, would be of…

I agree it is not likely but their made up reasons have nothing to do with it. The narratives shift weekly and at no point they've been internally consistent.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#75

Post by dmak »

Gigachad wrote: post #50
gumboza wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Server side rendering with light weight JavaScript. The point you make about most cases not needing it is spot on.

This is how most products start and then inevitably it starts to require more complex interactive pages so you have to add react and then it becomes easier for everything to be react. Client side rendering is not strictly tied to single page apps. At a previous company we had rails render out a div containing all the data the page needed to mount the react component. No complex api design, no weird permission issues,…

I've done that before, and it works well especially if that data doesn't frequently change or grow too big.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#76

Post by varjag »

lionkor wrote: post #73
hutzlibu wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"but increasing probability Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine." Not likely. They would have nothing to gain from it. In their narrative, they are protecting the ukrainians ( which are actually russians, whether they want or not) from the fascist ukrainians. Nuking russian soil does not go together with this and Putin struggles already to not loose his base. And any military advantage this would gain, would be of…

But... how else are we going to keep up the image that we're on the side of the good guys? People have been saying this shit for months, about how Russia will invade the rest of Europe, or drops nukes, or go crazy, and low and behold, they so far only did exactly what they said they were going to do, nothing more. If you cant support the war given those facts, and need to make up stories about nukes and total conques…

…exactly what they said? They were saying they are not going to invade as late as February 20, 2022. Then they said their objectives are total conquest on February 24, 2022 in a public TV address. They threatened nukes (everyone from Putin himself to TV pundits) for months until Xi publicly chided him.

But I am impressed how one can take perhaps the most morally unambiguous conflict in the century so far and still make it an uncertainty.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#77

Post by Mysterise »

sinlar-multiple wrote: post #63
azan_ wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean? Do you think that measurable increase of global temperature is a rhetoric and not a fact?

No but I think said increase is hardly influenced by human activity and is instead part of a cyclical behavior of Earth, which has been reconstructed by several studies (by reputable institutions I should add) I'm fairly certain the biggest threat that human industry poses is the chemical and polymer poisoning of the environment. Rising temperatures are only of concerns in the view that planetary conditions should be…

> which has been reconstructed by several studies (by reputable institutions I should add)

Sources would be helpful.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#79

Post by mamonster »

1. Start of a massive new immigration wave in Europe(around Q2-Q3), 2015-style numbers by Q2 2024. Will be a combination of Ukrainian refugees not wanting to return to Ukraine(even if they are able to) and subsequently being "permanently" settled in Europe and massive push by politicians to accept more immigrants in order to combat inflation/economy/pensions.

2. Massive labour bear market in tech industry in Europe/U.S. Tech workers are going to experience the same thing that happened to finance workers post-2008, i.e very hard work and ruthless competition for a good, but not proportional pay, with a miniscule but well publicized chance of striking it rich.

3. Musk will manage to stabilize Twitter but only after seriously overhauling the way internal economy functions. Will basically copy Instagram marketplace features as much as he can, allow people to sell stuff on Twitter properly and try to skim a bit off the top.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#80

Post by rapsey »

hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

Regarding 3. There are a whole lot of people projecting their desires on this situation and letting their dislike of Elon completely cloud their judgement and reasoning capacity.

What is going on at Twitter is the Musk modus operandi and he is almost certainly loving his time there right now. He put it all on the line at PayPal, Tesla and now Twitter. It's just extremely public this time. You can say he failed plenty and Twitter is probably just going to turn into one of those. But the user engagement right now is higher than ever and there is no reason it can not be turned into a profitable business. Twitter crashing and burning is wishful thinking more than reality.

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