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Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

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Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They are horse carriage companies in the age of the Ford Model T. I disagree. If you discount self-driving (and I do), then there are clearly other manufacturers who know perfectly well how to produce an EV. I own both a Tesla and a Bolt, and neither is a clear winner over the other. They each have ups & downs, but in any case GM produced a perfectly good EV. And Ford's Mach-E appears to be an improvement on Tesla'…

I've owned multiple Tesla and LEAFs. I've test driven a Bolt. A Bolt to a Tesla like Salieri to Mozart. Where to even begin? Thin seats. Smaller car. No charging network. No self-driving. No remote software updates... It's a long list. Does GM even know how to make a car these days? TSLA has massive growth problems. I've had my own issues with my Tesla cars. But how could we even talk about Bolt and Tesla in the same…

> Thin seats

The Tesla seats are awful compared to pretty much every other car at the same price point, so I'm not sure this is a good point. The Bolt seats aren't great either, but they're not significantly worse.

> Smaller car

Yep, more nimble. Not as powerful, for sure. But more tossable. Much tighter turning radius.

> No charging network

Except it can use standard non-Tesla DC fast-chargers, and those networks are collectively growing much faster than Tesla is growing the Supercharger network.

> Does GM even know how to make a car these days?

Uh, yes? They've always had the engineering chops, even when they cut corners and made duds. My last car before the Tesla was a Camaro SS 1LE, and it's so far on a different planet from anything by Tesla that it's unfair to consider Tesla a car manufacturer at that point. Yeah, GM knows what they are doing, what a silly thing to say!

> We should be talking about BMW.

No, we should not. They make exactly two cool cars now. The rest are just as cookie cutter boring as everything else.

> Who cares about GM?

Anyone who likes cars? I get that this generally rules out Tesla owners, I accept that. But GM makes the mid-engine Corvette - at a price point normal people can even afford! And Camaros, and many other cars. Hate on them all you want, but they're a very legitimate car manufacturer.

> If, one day, the Mach-E ships

It is...

The Mach-E has a nicer interior than a Model 3, and even has an actual dashboard screen in addition to the big center one. Not to mention an analog-ish volume knob. I bet it uses actual rain sensors, too ;). Maybe even a manual glovebox release.

Tesla is good at being different, and their drivetrain technology is excellent. The rest of the car is just barely acceptable, and only if you squint, and only if you've never ridden in anything with Recaros, etc. I like my P3D but only because there isn't yet anything equivalent, aside from the just now shipping Mach-E.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They are horse carriage companies in the age of the Ford Model T. I disagree. If you discount self-driving (and I do), then there are clearly other manufacturers who know perfectly well how to produce an EV. I own both a Tesla and a Bolt, and neither is a clear winner over the other. They each have ups & downs, but in any case GM produced a perfectly good EV. And Ford's Mach-E appears to be an improvement on Tesla'…

I've owned multiple Tesla and LEAFs. I've test driven a Bolt. A Bolt to a Tesla like Salieri to Mozart. Where to even begin? Thin seats. Smaller car. No charging network. No self-driving. No remote software updates... It's a long list. Does GM even know how to make a car these days? TSLA has massive growth problems. I've had my own issues with my Tesla cars. But how could we even talk about Bolt and Tesla in the same…

Your post reads as if you have already decided to discount everything that is not Tesla. You seem to be in a cult.

I test drove the Bolt and the Tesla, and the Bolt is a MUCH better value for the dollars paid (you can get it for around 30k$ with a bit of haggling). Saying that GM doesn't know how to make car is laughable.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#73

No one ever answers a question like that to a satisfying degree. I made a bunch of money speculating on the swings of stocks. Not with options, just patience, and it enabled me to make wild returns. For example, I bought and sold Virgin Galactic 3 times over the past 13 or 14 months, which tripled my initial capital. I did similar but with a risky few pharma stocks. PLTR tripled since IPO (and unlike AirBNB it wasn't…

No disrespect intended, but unless you have insider information, this is almost certainly luck and, used as an example, is simply selection bias.

The markets have never been more efficient. Beating the market consistently over 5 years, particularly these last 5 years, which have been part of an unprecedented bull run in the market, means nothing. There's been many hedge fund managers who pulled off outsized returns over those sorts of timeframes only to go on and fail in subsequent endeavours.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?

#74
post #4

TSLA? Not justifiable from a pure numbers standpoint. But - other tech stocks? Arguably justifiable. Since the risk free rate (treasuries) has cratered, this has altered the DCF calculation that analysts use to value a company (the outcome is essentially this: the company is worth more, because this risk free rate is used in discounting the PV vs FV of the company’s cash flows). Thus, it makes sense to have companies…

One thing I don’t understand is this DCF rate is essentially decided by the government. It seems weird to me that all the government needs to do make the stock holders richer is to drop interest rates to near zero. That seems like creating wealth out of nothing.

The Federal Reserve, while chartered by the US Government, is not a Government organ. It's really a bank, and it's owned by it's member banks.
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