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Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#71

Post by dx7tnt »

Gerthak wrote: post #48

You'll have a guaranteed next World War considering the current decouplings and many countries exiting from international treaties that provide stabilisation. I have no idea what will be the the post-war order so impossible to predict.

Why do you say it's guaranteed? The majority of people have zero appetite for it, it's bad for business and stability, and nukes are a thing. No non-nuclear state is seriously going to threaten war against a nuclear one. The Chinese, for example, could conquer Taiwan if they were so inclined, but don't seem have the appetite for doing so. Russia stormed the Crimea using traditional tactics and it didn't spread beyond that region. Wars now seem fairly regional and low-tech compared to the massive levels of annihilation and destruction that a next World War would entail.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#72

Post by neverminder »

* SpaceX will land people on Mars and establish a base.

* VR will take off and evolve into some Matrix-like form.

* Electric energy will push out oil from most sectors.

* Gene manipulation will take off big time.

* None of the above will happen because accelerating global warming will cause the 3rd world war.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#73

Post by _nalply »

There's a joke about weather forecast: "Kräht der Hahn auf dem Mist wird es morgen schön oder nicht" (If the cock is crowing on the midden weather will be either fine tomorrow or not). In this vein, my prediction:

Humans are mostly extinct or they are on their way to paradise.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#74

Post by estomagordo »

badpun wrote: post #64
estomagordo wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I realize I'm being rather eurocentric. The setbacks have been longer and more plentiful in Africa and Asia, but I maintain that the trend is also true there.

Where exactly? I'd say that democracies took root only in places (such as India, Japan) which were conquered and then organized by western countries. Other than that, not so much.

I don't know of any African countries where the people's democratic freedoms are much more prevalent today than they were centuries ago.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#76

Post by aaron695 »

50 years is too far ahead.

You won't have noticed Global Warming and water access will be better than now as per UN predictions.

Otherwise we know what bit's will happen, but not what it means and how it fits together. But there's obvious troubling spots.

What will it mean that fruit or vegetables are no longer grown in a farm or green house but made from base materials? Meats probably 20 years for complete take over, there's no reason fruit won't happen at around the same time, why grow a tree when you can grow an avocado.

What do we do with all the recovered crop area? We have vast deserts and oceans to collect materials and energy and we can automate a simpler thing like growing slime.

Live there and farm our own food for fun? Is it fun when you can buy anything you eat and drink in the world cheap as dirt? 100 year old scotches and fine wines are falling soon (ie Lost Spirits), probably 10 - 20 years... a hundred year old bottle of whiskey has ~50 cents of materials in it. How do we find worth in 50 years?

We know what will happen along the way, but not what will follow and how things will interact. 50 years is too far.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#77

Post by pgcj_poster »

estomagordo wrote: post #44

Since at least medieval times, civilization as a whole has tended to move towards freer, more democratic societies - almost without any meaningful, lengthy changes. This is particularly true since the industrial revolution. (Correct me if I'm wrong above.) Given this, I find it hard to believe that future societies would somehow become more oppressive. Rather, I think true democracy will have reached virtually, if no…

> true democracy

Can you explain what you mean by this? Are there countries today that qualify as "true democracies"?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#78

Post by usrusr »

yamrzou wrote: post #26
KozmoNau7 wrote: post #6

Massive unrest due to climate change, leading to waves of mass immigration, humanitarian disasters, atrocities, genocide and a rise in authoritarianism. All because of our greed.

Sadly, I agree. Let me quote https://collapseos.org/why.html here : “I expect our global supply chain to collapse before we reach 2030. With this collapse, we won't be able to produce most of our electronics because it depends on a very complex supply chain that we won't be able to achieve again for decades (ever?).” And a related discussion : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21183805 I might disagree with the gi…

Rebuilding computing could really turn out surprisingly difficult: the first time "we" did it, hardware manufacturing was bootstrapped by the type of customer epitomized by "world market for about five computers" and then gently followed the price/demand curve until we reached cheap smartphones. If it had to be repeated, all the potential customers on the beginner-friendly end of said curve will have access to vastly superior legacy hardware. The kind of customer that was amongst the first who could afford computers in the original ramp-up would be the last who could afford increasingly rare remnant hardware after a supply chain collapse (the same problem that makes it impossible to bootstrap a domestic anything industry when you don't already have one, all the deep-pocketed buyers can afford superior imports). Basically "Saddam's PlayStation 2 supercomputer" turned reality.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#79

Post by estomagordo »

pgcj_poster wrote: post #77
estomagordo wrote: post #44

Since at least medieval times, civilization as a whole has tended to move towards freer, more democratic societies - almost without any meaningful, lengthy changes. This is particularly true since the industrial revolution. (Correct me if I'm wrong above.) Given this, I find it hard to believe that future societies would somehow become more oppressive. Rather, I think true democracy will have reached virtually, if no…

> true democracy Can you explain what you mean by this? Are there countries today that qualify as "true democracies"?

Oh, I should have worded that better. I do not have terribly high thresholds for this. I pretty much mean that I'd expect China to evolve into something more akin to a typical western European democracy, rather than into what we have in Russia, which imo is only democratic in name.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 50 years?

#80

Post by ericb »

timonoko wrote: post #40

Nothing of real significance will happen. I know this for a fact this because in 1967 I wrote about 2017. Nothing become true, Finland does not have Space Forces, cars do not fly, lasers do remove space junk from orbit etcetc. The Lasering of space junk was part of Finland's 100 year celebration, instead of fireworks the worn-out space-vessel "Kokko" was destroyed with lasers.

I have instant access to something approaching the sum total of human knowledge, can navigate to anywhere in the world without a map, can be instantly connected via video to any person in the world, but nothing has changed?

Groceries come to my door. I haven't been to a store in months. I can watch a movie in my hand. I can learn things waiting in line at the grocery store that would have taken a day in the library previously.

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