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Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#71

Post by elliekelly »

eldavido wrote: post #47
elliekelly wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is really concerning. The fishing industry is fairly manual but many fish populations are already pushed to the brink. I went to Antartica a few months ago and I was shocked at how many squid boats we could see at night on our way down. Hundreds and hundreds with huge bright lights to lure them to their machinery. Overfishing is a real problem to the point that the current situation is almost unsustainable. I wo…

Overfishing is a regulatory, not technical, problem. Though I do think many of the hardest problems today are regulatory (climate, health, digital political advertising), not necessarily technical.

I disagree. Regulations and technology go hand-in-hand. Often the technology comes first and regulations try to keep up.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#72

Post by eloff »

elliekelly wrote: post #71
eldavido wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overfishing is a regulatory, not technical, problem. Though I do think many of the hardest problems today are regulatory (climate, health, digital political advertising), not necessarily technical.

I disagree. Regulations and technology go hand-in-hand. Often the technology comes first and regulations try to keep up.

I don't think technology is the issue here, it will just exacerbate an already existing problem of unsustainable fisheries management.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#73

Post by tmaly »

Here are my wild guesses

Automation is not spreading the wealth, I think you will see even less of a middle class and more extreme divisions of wealth between the classes.

The corporation seems to be the new power structure like the church use to be. You will see more concentration of power and less accountability with this new power structure.

In the US you will see a transformation of the demographic shift accelerate. You may also see a change in politics with a move more towards policies you see in Europe. However they will still not work due to the change in the power structures.

National debts will accelerate to make up for short falls in pension funding and retirement plans like social security. How this ultimately plays out, I have no idea.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#74

Post by RaceWon »

rootusrootus wrote: post #49
eldavido wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think public support of the health insurance status quo will collapse and Medicare for All will become an actual Thing. I'm almost certain about the first part (collapse) but much less certain about the second. The fundamental issue is affordability: we can't afford the health system we have. No matter who pays, the burden is going to be substantial. It's just a question of whether it's foisted onto shareholders…

I think scenario A is plausible ... but I live in a bubble. I frequently lament the completely broken insurance system I'm participating in now, where I have a high deductible plan that expects me to pay for everything up to $6K, while at the same time completely depriving me of the price information I need for that to work out in my favor. The bubble I live in is that I've actually got enough money to pay the out-of…

> how long we can maintain the status quo before those folks collectively realize just how numerous they are and how much change they can effect if they try.

My 2 Cents: America is FAR from Perfect, but do you bench Lebron because he only won 3 Championships? Change?.. Yeah, sure, some is worth a gamble--But fer christs sakes you gotta let James start!

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#75

Post by pxue »

eldavido wrote: post #29

Not directly answering the question, but, one I've been thinking about: what skills/traits allow a person to make such predictions with high accuracy? One thing is that I think you need a pretty wide set of priors--breadth. Stuff like history, anthropology, economics, the history of art. Lots of knowledge about human behavior, politics, culture, stuff like how emotions guide behavior, etc. When I look at a typical ST…

I agree. I can easily convince myself I'm making a really good educated guess but in reality I'm probably just shooting 50/50, maybe even less because of bias.

Probably the same reason why it's better to stick with indexes in the long term on stocks.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for the next 10 years for our daily lives?

#76

Post by PerfectElement »

27182818284 wrote: post #30

I have the feeling in the US, the rate of increase of partially meatless, vegetarian, and vegan households is going to increase. (i.e., meatless adoption acceleration) The polling seems to be all over the map with Gallup saying that vegetarianism was just 6% in 1999 and 5% in 2018 showing no growth [1] while other publications say 6% of US consumers now claim to be vegan, up from just 1% in 2014 [2]. In my experience…

In 10 years it's likely that clean meat will also be widely available. I just listened to an interesting podcast episode about it: https://youtu.be/rE93wKm0Ok8
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