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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How exactly are secularlists disenfranchising religions? There is a large swathe believing the separation of church and state is religious oppression, and they act like the country is not for those of all faiths.

When a court rules that a particular area is outside of elected officials' power to legislate, in a sense they are disenfranchising those who would vote for officials to make such laws. Leaving aside whether it is right or wrong, the underlying issue is that someone's set of values has been elevated outside of the democratic process. This has always been happening since the beginning, but in recent years we've experi…

There are a million things in this country that don't follow the democratic process such as the electoral college. But is that what you're really arguing?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#692

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How exactly are secularlists disenfranchising religions? There is a large swathe believing the separation of church and state is religious oppression, and they act like the country is not for those of all faiths.

The question misinterprets the dynamic. Point is, people disenfranchised ("left behind") by secular administrators are turning to religion for community and identity. That's the undercurrent in the context of the thread. It's not about the legal separation, it's about a change in the upstream culture as a reaction to the politics. The official principle of agnosticism that the separation of church and state represent…

That has nothing to do with secularism and people turning to religion for a sense of belonging. That has everything to do with housing policy being bent so in favor of the rich, most American homes are built to be secluded with no real way to walk around or dine in neighborhoods.

So everyone has to go out of their way and make reasons to feel connected with their fellow man.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fixed wing drones are becoming super cheap , and are far simpler than their copter-classed counterparts. While handover needs smoothing out, delivery will thus be easy for items of daily use. Less so for furniture, appliances, etc. However, if you are willing to deal with foam furniture, earth building or felling a couple of trees on site, robotics could still have you covered.

Do you foresee fixed wing drones also displacing cars? Would be awfully nice to no longer need to build highways and roads...

No. Maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-effect_vehicle A 2014 study by students at NASA's Ames Research Center claims that use of GEVs for passenger travel could lead to cheaper flights, increased accessibility and less pollution. https://youtu.be/3heh9swH2Zw?t=66

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#694

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When a court rules that a particular area is outside of elected officials' power to legislate, in a sense they are disenfranchising those who would vote for officials to make such laws. Leaving aside whether it is right or wrong, the underlying issue is that someone's set of values has been elevated outside of the democratic process. This has always been happening since the beginning, but in recent years we've experi…

There are a million things in this country that don't follow the democratic process such as the electoral college. But is that what you're really arguing?

The fact that you disagree with that particular democratic process does not mean it is not in fact a democratic process. Not a perfect one, but one nonetheless. As for your second sentence, I don't understand what you are getting at. I am really arguing the argument I put forth, not some other argument. If you disagree with that point, happy to entertain a rebuttal but I have no interest in participating in a culture war so you can put down your dog whistle detector.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#695
Neuro-linguistic Programming et. al. It's currently considered a pseudo-science (which is technically false: it's pre-scientific. However, unfortunately, many practitioners and promoters do try to make it seem more scientific than it is.)

It's actually fairly widespread, people teach it and use it all over the globe, and fairly stodgy organizations have used it (e.g. the US Army.) Yet the mainstream rarely mentions it, and then only to denigrate it. However, this seems to me to be that stage right before something goes from "fringe" to "common knowledge".

Once NLP goes fully mainstream there will be a sea change in human society. Psychological hangups will be a thing of the past. There will still be people who have mental problems, but they will be the ones with actual physical problems with the brain (or whatever) as opposed to just bad programming. Things like addictions, phobias, neurosis, etc. will vanish.

Educational possibilities are mind-blowing. Learning multiple languages becomes easy, as does learning musical instruments and dances. Really any behavioral patterns will become subject to symbolic manipulation. Competitive sports will be transformed when each player can "clone" the best moves of the best players.

Politics has already been revolutionized by NLP innovations. As far back as G.W. Bush NLP language patterns had already made their way into political speeches. The current culture wars are, at their root, gangs of hypnotists programming furiously.

To me the fascinating thing is that, once it's common knowledge that you can alter your psychology as easily (more easily!) than your wardrobe it becomes a matter of personal responsibility. The whole "it's just human nature" argument goes out the window when you can reprogram yourself.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#696

Autonomous machines operating in farm land in the USA. Several billion dollar companies could be spun up. Ripe for the taking right now/

I think the next ag revolution will be robotics capable of harvesting and maintaining intercropping/multicropping based ecosystems instead of periodic-raze monocultures. The results are better in terms of output per unit of land, and the industrial inputs are reduced in terms of pest control and fertilizer. However, the machinery needs to be much more complicated and agricultural processes will not be as fast.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#697
post #284

General purpose humanoid robots. They're kind of mainstream idea, but very few people talk about them or take them seriously. Humanoid robots will have an absolutely massive impact in very near future. Most people don't realize that with general purpose humanoid robots, labor becomes software. Labor becomes repeateable, testable, simulatable, modular, extensible, verifiable, etc. All things that apply to software wil…

I think it is not "very soon" because progress in hardware is slow and the hardware has a long, long way to go. But otherwise you are absolutely right and I agree 100%. Recent rapid progress in AI has convinced me that we will have sci-fi style androids walking around in my lifetime, and the consequences of that are impossible to overstate. Sci-fi gets a few things about androids wrong. #1, they will not be physicall…

What stops people in power from purging entire populations? Like happened in Georgia, only this time in their own country, and instead of ethnicity, based on the metric of wealth?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#698

WLAN sensing. Off the shelf mesh wifi systems are capable of sensing people reliably. This includes qty, position, motion, & gestures. Here is the IEEE spec due for approval in a year or two: https://www.ieee802.org/11/Reports/tgbf_update.htm I have mixed feelings on the tech. The home security implications are amazing, and things like automatic fall detection for the elderly would be a literal lifesaver. Small busin…

Welp, welcome to the surveillance state, everyone!

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#699
Deconstruction of discourse: the vast majority of humans out of the decision loop.

All the main online sources are moving to subscription models with higher subscriptions for the real information. Only those with money will have access to information that informs decisions. At the low end, information is bundled only for its entertainment or propaganda value.

At the same time, decisions are increasingly automated as vast data streams are digested by automated processes.

20 or 100 years ago, people could stop work or stop buying or protest in the street. 20-100 years from now, there will be nothing the vast bulk of people can do to change their fate.

The resulting lack of citizen governance will at best be a world broken into geographic silos headed by corporate keiretsu.

So the next big technical thing will be domain-specific semantic models to drill down past what AI can do with probabilistic models -- just as the economy has moved well past bulk goods to bespoke services, e.g., the Nature article today providing a model for immune system cell-surface-protein interactions: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05028-x

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#700
post #284

General purpose humanoid robots. They're kind of mainstream idea, but very few people talk about them or take them seriously. Humanoid robots will have an absolutely massive impact in very near future. Most people don't realize that with general purpose humanoid robots, labor becomes software. Labor becomes repeateable, testable, simulatable, modular, extensible, verifiable, etc. All things that apply to software wil…

Disagree here.

Task-specific robots will be 10x cheaper and better, so they will happen first.

Starbucks has automated their coffee maker.

Then they will automate 'order taking'.

And a series of robots to clean, make, serve coffee probably with specific functions.

That's it.

Everything will be automated so much I think 'humanoid' robots will remain a bit of an elusive fantasy, always 'just over the horizon'.

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