Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#691

Post by gdubs » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 4:21 PM UTC

I’ll go out on a limb here and say that this sounds “Dr Strangelove” level bad. Like, phenomenally cavalier.

They need to release the data and assumptions they’re basing their simulations on, because this will affect the entire world, not just the UK.

The current numbers have COVID-19 at something like 20x more deadly [than the flu] for people under 50. It’s not nothing. At scale, that’s a lot of people dying. Those numbers are also a reflection of the treatment being done in all the other areas of the world right now. Does their model adjust for an increased mortality rate that would surely occur in an overwhelmed medical system? Are they assuming a nearly perfectly executed quarantine of the elderly?

They need to share their data and assumptions.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#692

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 4:27 PM UTC

w14 wrote: post #684

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was an op ed recently from a former member of the Johnson government that stated "It is time the economists took over from the doctors, before the real pandemic [economic recession] spreads." So that, told me all I need to know about the cruelty and stupidity of the UK government at this time.

Just to correct this, the statement was made by Omar Hassan, who was head of inward Middle Eastern investment while Boris Johnson was Mayor of London, and was never part of the Johnson government. Here's the article the quote comes from: https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-deaths-trum...

Thanks, I didn't realize that.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#693

Post by captainbland » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 4:32 PM UTC

rzwitserloot wrote: post #398

knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

I haven't checked too closely, but surely the age distribution of conservative voters is such that if they are so callous as to treat corona as a convenient boomer remover, they torpedo their own re-election chances. So, _even if_ you ascribe to the current UK government a conspiracy-esque, cold as nails approach to just effectively _murder whole boatloads of older folks_, it doesn't actually make sense: Who would th…

You really have to understand that this government hires "superpredictors". It's not malice, it's just incompetence. They're making decisions based on how "truthy" they sound to them.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#694

Post by stjohnswarts » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

I think this is the path the USA will be taking as well if not "officially" so the old folks won't freak out.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#695

Post by stjohnswarts » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 5:06 PM UTC

odiroot wrote: post #631

starfallg wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the spread by just having good testing and case tracking capacity, and good hygiene. You forgot Taiwan, who is faring much better than all three of the countries you mentioned.

And they did it all without closing their airports! What mostly helped was lack of mainland Chinese people entering the country. Also Taiwanese wear their face masks religiously and are used to obeying the rules set by the government. Finally (AFAIK) they have a very good health care system which handled the cases quickly and efficiently.

face masks don't help unless you've got covid19 and are using it to prevent spreading. If you have flu like symptoms you should be staying home anyway.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#696

Post by stjohnswarts » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 5:11 PM UTC

prox wrote: post #218

knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

Also, the more time you win, the closer we get to a cure, vaccin or way to deal with it better.

the problem is that because it takes a year or two to get a vaccine out that this will all be over unless it mutates into something completely different.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#697

Post by stjohnswarts » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 5:12 PM UTC

scythe wrote: post #249

prox wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, the more time you win, the closer we get to a cure, vaccin or way to deal with it better.

I think the development of a vaccine in a few months is unlikely. I think however the identification of somewhat effective antivirals in a few months is probable. There are already two antiviral candidates in trials, which are simpler to run than vaccine trials: remdesivir and lopinavir+ritonavir. Also, "transmitted immunity" is being (re)developed: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/doctors-push-trea... Anti…

Dead on, the vaccine will just be a novelty, this will be over by then after 70-90% of the population has caught it and is mostly immune to it or dead.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#698

Post by kragen » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

Silhouette wrote: post #20

knzhou wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there's a third strategy that works better than either: don't lockdown, but do effective testing, case tracking, and treatment, well enough so that exponential growth can't happen in the first place. That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great.

That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great. All of which have tiny populations compared to the UK. For larger nations, there simply aren't enough tests available, nor enough treatment facilities for those who are likely to become very sick if the virus spreads rapidly through the population.

Taiwan is 23 million people. The UK is 67 million people. The level of confidence of your comment does not seem to be warranted by your level of knowledge.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#699

Post by dang » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 6:21 PM UTC

Veen wrote: post #216

dang wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dividing line for what's on topic on HN not fact vs. opinion, it's intellectual curiosity ( https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html ). That doesn't limit itself to authoritative information, by definition. Speculation is inevitable. The question is whether it's curious (thoughtful and fresh) or uncurious (reflexive and predictable).

But ignorant speculation during a crisis can have serious consequences. Look the fools in this thread claiming that the UK government is deliberately culling the sick and elderly. The last thing we need is ideas like that getting widespread acceptance and causing civil unrest and distrust of the authorities who are essential to managing the situation.

It's true. But ignorant speculation forms a chunk of every thread. The solution isn't to try to restrict posting to authorized opinion—that would cause more harm than good and is impossible anyway. The solution—well, there's no solution, but the best we can do—is to let the community respond when it's able to function, and moderate the threads to the extent that it's not.

When I last looked in on this one, it seemed to me that the community was functioning ok—noticeably better, in fact, than in most of the coronavirus discussions, which are highly repetitive. Repetition is bad on HN, not only because it's lacking in intellectual curiosity, but because it leads to flamewars. The mind seems to resort to conflict to amuse itself when nothing new and interesting is available.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#700

Post by martinpw » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 6:27 PM UTC

yulaow wrote: post #689

grey-area wrote: post #675

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure I agree with your assessment. Germany is doing pretty well at just 9 deaths on 4.5k cases. The WHO is not the only or the best source of recommendations, nor is this over in China. I'd be very surprised if they don't see another outbreak there now that this is a pandemic it will spread to Africa for example, which has a huge no of Chinese working there who will bring it back.

Germany is also not reporting deaths from coronavirus if the patients had also other pre-existing conditions just to keep the number artificially low.

Do you have a reference for that?