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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#681

Post by tatrajim »

hn2017 wrote: post #411

Alternative truths - Trump says election was fraudulent, everyone believes it. Crazy stuff like QAnon/Alex Jones. Blatant lies that are objectively false (bigger crowd size, etc..), Sandy Hook shooting didn't exist. Vaccines/5G/Bill Gates cause cancer/zombies. People will start living in an alternate reality devoid of truth which will splinter society

Yes, really unbelievable how Trump completely denied the global consensus that he was being blackmailed by Russia for the "pee tapes". And even worse that Trump's slack-jawed acolytes continued to maintain that the Hunter Biden laptop was genuine when the most reliable mainstream media and intelligence officials all dismissed it as disinformation. How could the Trump idiots believe such transparent propaganda?!

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#682

Post by creakingstairs »

mullen wrote: post #641
mikewarot wrote: post #94

Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy. It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them) Energy Blindness -- We'…

> Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for those countries dependent on imported food or energy Hogwash. Globalization is good, Globalization is here to stay. Whatever is the current location causing issues with Globalization will simply be routed around. There are plenty of countries that would love to be part…

I don’t think the current state of globalisation can last. It won’t be complete deglobalisation either.

I think we’d see the world market divided in two. It’s already starting with semi conductors (chip 4 alliance).

For some key industries US will also bring some of the manufacturing in house instead of only relying on allies. Again you are already seeing this with semi conductors: US is bringing manufacturing to its own soil and South Korea has already made some raw material processing domestic instead of relying on cheaper global market.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#683

Post by whimsicalism »

orangepurple wrote: post #440
kvothe_ wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

unlikely we'll rebuild locally. We will outsource it to a friendlier country with cheap labor. In 50 yrs the cycle will repeat. (Probably South America.)

That country will be Mexico. There is already a strong logistics relationship with that country and it will only get stronger

Not for chips it won't be.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#684

Post by scarmig »

cauthon wrote: post #562
ChadNauseam wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Height is a univariate trait that does not change after the age of ~20. If you show me someone who can take a genome and predict adult height within a centimeter, then I’ll believe they have a snowball’s chance of predicting something as nuanced and varied as “attractiveness” or “intelligence”. I don't know why that would be the standard, since the amount of variation in height that's attributable to environmental…

> since the amount of variation in height that's attributable to environmental factors might make that fundamentally impossible Yes, that is my point. Both intelligence and attractiveness have a significant amount of variation attributable to environmental or other external factors, and have the additional complication that they cannot be measured by a single objective unit (like height can). > do you think that in 2…

Have you applied the same statistical rigor to the evidence that improved child care, healthcare+diet, and k-12 education improve intelligence and educational attainment leads to intelligence increases as you do for genetic arguments?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#685

Post by pedalpete »

gshevchuk wrote: post #636

Multi-material 3D printing: once we're able to combine multiple classes of functional materials, we'll be able to produce really unique products and inventions.

One of the things I like about the opportunity in 3D printing is the potential to move manufacturing closer to the source of sale. From an environmental perspective, I believe this is a big win, as well as JIT manufacturing.

I'm not suggesting everyone will have a 3D printer, but if we can localize the printing, you can get your same day delivery without warehousing, etc.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#686

Post by whimsicalism »

cauthon wrote: post #562
ChadNauseam wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Height is a univariate trait that does not change after the age of ~20. If you show me someone who can take a genome and predict adult height within a centimeter, then I’ll believe they have a snowball’s chance of predicting something as nuanced and varied as “attractiveness” or “intelligence”. I don't know why that would be the standard, since the amount of variation in height that's attributable to environmental…

> since the amount of variation in height that's attributable to environmental factors might make that fundamentally impossible Yes, that is my point. Both intelligence and attractiveness have a significant amount of variation attributable to environmental or other external factors, and have the additional complication that they cannot be measured by a single objective unit (like height can). > do you think that in 2…

> The quantification of intelligence is notoriously confounded by socioeconomic factors. I do not think talking about predicting a feature makes sense while we are currently unable to describe it well.

If we are doing this selection of IVF embryos it is feasible to control for these confounding factors.

> IMO dedicating funding to improving child care, healthcare+diet, and k-12 education will have a much greater impact on increasing a society's measures of intelligence and educational attainment. There's much stronger evidence that these factors are associated with improved outcomes. But, the work isn't "sexy" and doesn't come with a sci-fi flair.

Source? Isn't intelligence in adulthood more correlated with your parents than any of these environmental factors? That was at least what I had recalled from twin adoption studies.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#687

Post by abracadaniel »

Vox_Leone wrote: post #271

Real holographic display : To create an aerial hologram [or a 3d image in space if you will], you need something that will emit light at precise locations throughout a given volume. I'm investigating the use of Moller electron scattering[0] to create voxels in a 3d coordinate system. Two electron beams crossing and colliding will emit photons [voxels]. If you can orchestrate collisions in a very fast fashion at vario…

I’m ready for a comeback of CRTs in the form of a crazy double electron gun hologram display. Bring it on

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#688

Post by tatrajim »

A deeper consolidation of insights from Neo-Confucian philosophy, including the elucidation of the grand ultimate 太極 and duality of form (理) and material force (氣), schematized in the diagrams of, among others, the tenth-century northern Song Dynasty thinker Zhou Duni 周敦頤 and the Korean Joseon-era philosophers Kwon Keun 권근 and especially Yi Toegye 이퇴계 in his "10 Diagrams on Sagely Learning 聖學十圖".

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#689

Post by mr_toad »

GTP wrote: post #503
ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

I don't think there is any genetic basis for intelligence: if there was, then you would expect that the offspring of the geniuses we had in the past to have an higher chance at being extremely intelligent than other people. But this doesn't seem to be the case, as you usually never hear about the sons or daughters of such geniuses, as they seem to be like other "normal" people in most cases. I admit I'm not bringing…

> I don't think there is any genetic basis for intelligence

Clearly there is, or we’d see more Chimpanzees commenting on Hacker News.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#690

Post by droptablemain »

ChadNauseam wrote: post #247

Preimplantation polygenetic testing. The idea is that, when doing IVF, you sequence the genome of all the embryos and implant the ones that you predict will have properties that you like. This already exists for monogenetic screening (for parents who don't want to pass on heritable diseases for their children, where those diseases are localized to one gene). But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes,…

So the next big thing is...eugenics?
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