Earlier quoted context omitted.
The predictions I was hearing weren't far off. We did know Elon was full of shit, but a lot of people thought we'd be further along by now. 5 years ago I was hearing 10-20 years. This was from people who were connected and knowledgeable in the industry. Now the same people are singing a different tune. Maybe in 20 years from now, but it's looking pretty impossible in the next 5-10 years.
10-20 years as a prediction in tech, though, generally means " shrug who knows maybe never". Historically, predictions that far ahead are virtually useless.
The issue is that misestimation of a few key factors and overestimation of our current capabilities. If we already have the tech for self driving cars, maybe it will only take 10 years.
Assuming this something computers do quite well (wrong assumption, but it seemed reasonable at the time), we already have vehicles that can navigate themselves (we do), and we're only somewhat recently getting to the point that cars are sophisticated computers (mostly true, although computer control of car isn't something new.
There have been lots of ECUs for sometime, but the capabilities have really exploded. Maybe we just haven't gotten around to do self driving and the tools are in our hands right now!
When you understand how the auto industry works, 10 years is a relatively short timespan, that will result in ~2-5ish major design iterations. If you don't have the feature presently in the pipeline, the clock is really ticking, assuming it's new technology.
To deliver on the 10 year deadline, you will only have a couple years to be almost completely ready. 10 years is not "who knows", it's a bold prediction that implies the final product is imminent. People in tech didn't know what the fuck was going on, thinking we'd have taught the cars to drive and got the tech figured out in 5-7 years. It was loony toons.
Many very smart people I know, at least one of them inside the industry, seemed extremely confident of this. Things look different now.