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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#661

Post by 6ue7nNMEEbHcM »

somenameforme wrote: post #549
mlinksva wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was the answer, pre-Ukraine already. That war doesn't move the needle that much, as NATO/Russia escalation is far from the only nuclear war threat -- there's also mistakes by any party, India/Pakistan, North Korea, China, etc.

The China/Pakistan border clashes have resulted in fatalities on the order of several dozen in something where neither nation really wants to escalate. Ukraine would have long since lost this war if not for the US directing the funneling tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons, training, and so on to Ukraine. This support has been directly responsible for the excess deaths of Russians and Ukrainians alike number…

> This support has been directly responsible for the excess deaths of Russians and Ukrainians alike numbering in the tens of thousands.

No. It's Russian invasion on Ukraine directly responsible for the deaths.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#662

Post by twirlock »

mullen wrote: post #641
mikewarot wrote: post #94

Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy. It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them) Energy Blindness -- We'…

> Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for those countries dependent on imported food or energy Hogwash. Globalization is good, Globalization is here to stay. Whatever is the current location causing issues with Globalization will simply be routed around. There are plenty of countries that would love to be part…

No post body was provided.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#664

Post by royandre2k »

A fundamentally new power source, 100% renewable and with unlimited capacity for the entire planet. Since it's not invented yet I unfortunately don't have any details to share until a decade or two. Stay tuned.

Sidenote: Unlimited power capacity introduced many new challenges, so there will be uhm powers who wants to stop it, temporarily.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#665

Post by bergenty »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #487
cauthon wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the idea here is that, by checking thousands of genes, you can make predictions for things that start to be very relevant to parents, like attractiveness or height or intelligence. Personally, I think this interpretation of polygenic risk scoring is a crock of irreproducible shite. I don’t think it’s your fault, I think a lot of people in the field are shilling something they don’t have for grant money, and the…

> show me someone who can take a genome and predict adult height within a centimeter, then I’ll believe they have a snowball’s chance of predicting something as nuanced and varied as “attractiveness” or “intelligence”. This has been done. Not to 1cm but ~3cm, and it has been reproduced by many labs all over the world That said, most genetic prediction aren't targeting exact vales, but avoiding the worst outcomes, whi…

The control on those are in places that have relatively standard nutritional distribution. The environment obviously plays a strong role, just look at the height difference in populations between north and South Korea.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#666

Post by motohagiography »

tomuli38 wrote: post #595
motohagiography wrote: post #287

Reasoning it through, what don't people politely talk about? Sex, money, politics, and religion. Sex: the impact of the normalization of casual sex work on sustainable families, and how specific tech and financial services for managing single motherhood will be huge. Money: financial alternatives to emerging social credit based systems, grey markets, working class capital/savings flight, cyberpunk dystopia. Politics:…

How exactly are secularlists disenfranchising religions? There is a large swathe believing the separation of church and state is religious oppression, and they act like the country is not for those of all faiths.

The question misinterprets the dynamic. Point is, people disenfranchised ("left behind") by secular administrators are turning to religion for community and identity. That's the undercurrent in the context of the thread. It's not about the legal separation, it's about a change in the upstream culture as a reaction to the politics. The official principle of agnosticism that the separation of church and state represents is not official atheism either. In fact, it's the opposite. The US system was famously said to be vulnerable by it's founders, "Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other." While it can tolerate almost every kind of minority belief, it doesn't survive a shift to complete atheism and nihilism. The American system is predicated on the universalist idea that, "people here are free to have both kinds of beliefs, theistic AND deistic," and the trend I was pointing out is religion is becoming a reactionary tendency.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#667

Post by mywittyname »

bko wrote: post #213
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

> By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely. Do you believe this? I know its a stated goal, but is there anything to hold the company's accountable or is this just a promise? I can't imagine them giving up a cash cow and something they've been doing for decades. EV sales in the USU are 5.6% of the market. I just find the claim that these companies will just s…

I believe it. There's a stark difference in comparing the available EV models from mainstream manufactures between 2018 and 2022. Hyundai/KIA in particular are nailing it when it comes to EVs.

Manufactures are already quietly sunseting ICEs. It just doesn't read as significant right now, because the models which are going away are not the big, important ones. But manufactures are setting the stage for the transition of popular nameplates to EVs (see: Mustang, F150)

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#668

Post by O__________O »

tboyd47 wrote: post #450
fomine3 wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you introduce some examples, like ODMs?

Unfortunately no. I don't work in the field, but I just spent a few months there networking for business, and everyone is getting into the export/import business. Even housewives are making money just buying products at the local malls and dropshipping them to Europe. The labor is ridiculously cheap after the lira crash, raw materials for practically anything can be sourced domestically, and it's right in the neighbo…

Lira crash is cause, it’s not sustainable.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#669

Post by s1artibartfast »

philipkglass wrote: post #624
s1artibartfast wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has been out of the box already for a while. You can literally have your embryo commercially screened for intelligence, height, and other complex traits today

Has it been out of the box long enough to validate that the adult versions of the embryos exhibit the traits that they're supposed to? Is it a noticeable intelligence boost? For example, a standard deviation higher IQ as measured by Raven's Progressive Matrices, compared to siblings from un-screened embryos? I read enough about biotech and biohacking that I feel like I would have already come across reports if this r…

Just saw your quoted text, and I do think the reasoning is incorrect.

What is gets right is that there are some serious practical limitations. The most important are around the availability of embryos, financial costs, and diminishing returns.

What it gets wrong is modeling the implementation as an optimization tool opposed to a screening tool.

If you have a pool 10 embryos, with a trait on a normal distribution (eg IQ), you can screen the bottom half out. By doing so, the average IQ goes from 100 (normal mean) to 110, mean for embryos over 100.

People want genetic children, but if for example, a wife is infertile, eggs can be purchased for ~$2.5k.[1]

Using today's technology, you could buy 100 eggs, screen the top 10% (>120), and the average embryo in the pool would be now be the 95th percentile for IQ (eg 125, +1.66 Standard deviations above the mean)

The next technology needed to knock this wide open would the the cloning or duplication of human eggs from a single source. IVT egg extraction yields only 5-10 eggs per cycle. If this could be multiplied in-vitro, money would be the only constraint.

https://www.cryosinternational.com/en-us/us-shop/client/how-...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#670

Post by Thorentis »

mullen wrote: post #641
mikewarot wrote: post #94

Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy. It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them) Energy Blindness -- We'…

> Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for those countries dependent on imported food or energy Hogwash. Globalization is good, Globalization is here to stay. Whatever is the current location causing issues with Globalization will simply be routed around. There are plenty of countries that would love to be part…

Energy is one thing, but I don't see any good replacements for plastics, especially medical grade plastic. We rely on oil for far more than just energy.
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