Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

Even today Cost of construction is not a big factor in real estate price. Proximity to Central business district is one of the major components. Transport might have a impact.

Agree on colonial mindset on CO2 emissions.

Pollution, climate change, demography, and continuing digital transformation will be common drivers of 2020-2029

1. Much higher personal income and property taxes

2. Planned economy in most developed countries

3. Mass surveillance: Government, local administrations, emergency services, fire departments, police - will have access to personal profile of every citizen (which includes not just location history, but every digital trace)

4. More political scandals and geopolitical conflicts because everyone's private history can easily become public knowledge at proper time. More interference/brainwashing/propaganda in all countries

5. Self-driving delivery vehicles will be common: transportation of goods during night hours

6. Public transport and personal human-/motor- powered single-track vehicles will be much more adopted in most parts of the world

7. Small autonomous robots will be everywhere: construction works, food delivery, garbage collection, agricultural works, sorting, etc. Of course they also will work at night-time

8. More interstellar comets/asteroids will be found - they will be considered as the only viable way for interstellar travel from our Solar System to our closest neighbors like Proxima Centauri

9. No humans on Mars

1. Deep learning will enter its next wave with increased biomimicry end efficiency. Ai will continue to evolve linearly. AGI will still be decades off.

2. Psychidelics will again enter the public sphere and we will see phychidelic therapy in the UK/US. They will also lead the development of a new theory of the mind and consiousness that enter the mainstream.

3. Plant/fungus based food will continue to expand while meat consumption drops. Lab grown meat will prove possible.

4. Ai in healthcare will allow for decentralised expertise. The role and power of nurses will expand.

5. Analog computing with neuromorphic chips along with reinforcement learning will be used in robotic control.

6. Drones will be a common site in city airspace.

7. Apple will enter healthcare in a big way. Medical functionality will enter consumer electronics and continue to push data driven preventative heathcare foreward.

8. Antibiotic resistance will be a huge problem. We will continue to see the return of illnesses we thought we would never see again.

9. Robots will allow smaller plots of land to be productive and agriculture will move away from mega farms. Local farmers markets will become more popular and accessable.

10. Ai agents will continue to compete against and dominate humans but will inhabit a physical shell to even the input playing ground.

11. Cannabis will be legalised federally in the US and UK. Most medical benefits will prove to be hype.

12. Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate.

World War 3 starts.

Personal data stored in banks/ISPs/FB/Google etc are taken at gun point and used for population scale psychological warfare.

Kissinger(World Order)/Niall Ferguson(Square and the Tower)/Graham Allison(Thucydides Trap)/Moises Naim(End of Power) say networks of power are more and more unstable similar to 1914.

To maintain stability they(irrespective of ideology) keep pandering to their fan clubs and therefore get more and more inflexible.

Small triggers turn into national and then international conflict between major powers.

Kissenger's reasons - 1 The international economic system has become global the political structure of the world has remained based on the nation-state. 2. Acquiescing in the proliferation of nuclear weapons far beyond the Cold War club, so multiplying the possibilities of nuclear confrontation. 3. The new realm of cyberspace, in which asymmetry and a kind of congenital world disorder are built into relations between powers

The last time it took 30 years 1914-1945, after about 100 years of peace between the world powers, for everyone to take a breath and reboot to happen.

This time around the reboot should be much quicker. The nukes will get dropped faster, because thanks to tech all the major powers can do serious damage to each other very fast as soon as things escalate beyond control.

It will be become increasingly clear that our mode of production is post-capitalist as the internet as ad-platform becomes increasingly problematic and the chimera of network-effects-as-value, an idea both before and past its time takes hold of the popular imagination. The battle between "capitalism" and "socialism" will come to the fore, but neither as recognizable versions of their pre-internet selves.

Okay, bit of a hail mary, but go big or go home right?