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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#651

Post by simonh »

patrec wrote: post #378
simonh wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it isn’t possible to screen every single person entering a country like the UK, which means it is inevitable the virus will get in again and you’ll have another outbreak. However that’s assuming you can eradicate it. That might be possible in an isolated population centre like Singapore, but the UK has an extensive rural area where the virus can hide out, slowly propagating through many different sparse popul…

> Because it isn’t possible to screen every single person entering a country like the UK Why not? Personally, if I were put before the choice of not having more people enter my country than I can screen or killing off 1M+ of my electorate, I'd at least seriously consider the first option. Meanwhile the UK government clearly thought that even stopping the flow of people from an epi-center, fleeing quarantine (or at le…

>> Because it isn’t possible to screen every single person entering a country like the UK

>Why not?

In addition to major airports we also have many minor ones and private airfields. There are 120 commercial ports, and many, many more smaller docks, quays and marinas. We have many islands and remote coastal communities that rely on these for essential supplies and no systematic way to monitor them all. Even then, sealing ourselves completely would have to include stopping goods because goods are carried by people.

Also we now know the virus can survive on cardboard for up to 9 days. We don't have 9 days worth of supplies of everything in the country and don'y have a tracking system for every shipment in or out. We know from the Brexit analysis that we can't track goods enough to tax them, so clearly we can't do the same for medical reasons.

Finally, even if such a lockdown were practically feasible and we developed the logistical and administrative capacity to do it overnight, which we can't, it would destroy our economy. That would inflict massive hardship, particularly on the old and vulnerable, exactly the people we most need to protect. Hardship and poverty kills people, and shutting down all trade and commerce until we have a vaccine, which could be several years or even indefinitely, would take us back to the stone age. It would be far, far worse even than during World War 2, and that's how severe it would have to be to prevent the virus getting in, not just for months but probably for one or more years.

Anyway thats a fantasy, we just don't have the logistical or administrative apparatus to do it fast enough for it to matter.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#652

Post by ldng »

It is a theoretical solution. That also could backfire fiercely. The more it spreads, the more likely it is to mutate. And not all mutations will be equals. Plus it might make producing a vaccine more complex.

Could also work. Unexplored territory, the truth is we don't know.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#653

Post by thu2111 »

joe_the_user wrote: post #551
wyclif wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a smart observation. The UK is now taking the conservative view because it's the long term view, that this will likely become a recurring seasonal virus (or a one-time virus that keeps knocking on your door until you get it), and therefore there's not much point in a national "lockdown" to "stop" the virus, because as soon as a nation relaxes its lockdown the virus will simply pick up right where it left off.…

This approach is definitely negligent to the point of criminality. There's no practical way to keep younger and healthy people away from older or less-healthy people and once the virus spreads to the less healthy people it will likely spread further. (I've been doing the arithmetic for this stuff all day but here goes). The UK's population is about 66 million. Sixty percent infected is 39,600,000. A 1% death rate (wh…

Herd immunity doesn't happen for Ebola because it's not that infectious compared to covid19. Ebola spreads when an infected person coughs up infected blood over someone. That's pretty easy to contain - people don't walk around spreading Ebola with no symptoms.

Herd immunity in this case isn't something you choose to cultivate or not. With such an infectious disease you're going to get it sooner or later; that's the UK's point. Trying to wipe it out through self isolation won't be globally 100% effective and if it's not it'll just come back. Ultimately only the population carrying lots of antibodies will end transmission for good.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#654

Post by sarakayakomzin »

grey-area wrote: post #636
knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. No, that is almost entirely wrong. You can certainly disagree with their position but you should at least present it accurately. Their position is that this is a pandemic (i.e. spread too widely to eradicate this…

>If they manage to flatten the curve by timing measures, and if there is a second outbreak this winter, it may well save lives. The Chief Scientific Adviser and other experts are not horrified, they came up with the plan and are defending it, so no, ‘experts’ are not horrified, though some disagree (which is fine).

the question then comes down to if you think this will be better or worse than other methods. I don't understand why you were so hard on the parent comment when you reduced the question and still failed to answer it.

>I’d be more worried living in the US right now given the mixture of denial and bluster which has been the response so far.

yes, it is a dumpster fire. but that doesn't answer the question either.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#655

Post by xorcist »

grey-area wrote: post #636
knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. No, that is almost entirely wrong. You can certainly disagree with their position but you should at least present it accurately. Their position is that this is a pandemic (i.e. spread too widely to eradicate this…

Europe right now shows the full spectrum of possible solutions. It is not as if draconian lockdowns are the only alternative. Look at Germany, for example. They've been using testing quite effectively and are also looking at primarily isolating vulnerable people.

It will take some time before we know more about how successful these strategies are. Different countries are at different phases in the infection spread which makes comparisons unfair.

If anything, the politically easy decision would be the lockdowns which shows voters strong leaders capable of "doing something" (even if the value of this "something" is at best unclear).

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#656

Post by [deleted] »

vanniv wrote: post #269
dharma1 wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's too early to say with reliable data. We will definitely know in 2-3 weeks with data from many European countries. In Italy, it looks like the percentage of younger hospitalised people is 12%, but growing. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-...

That is not 12% of cases. That is 12% of hospitalizations are under the age for 50. The overall hospitalization rate is difficult to know, due to the huge inaccuracies in the case numbers.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#657

Post by perlgeek »

I don't think there's any working strategy for infecting the young and keeping them separate from the old. Many young people have contact with older people (live together, work together, being taught by them etc.), and anybody who claims it might work is IMHO divorced from reality.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#658

Post by starfallg »

odiroot wrote: post #631
starfallg wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the spread by just having good testing and case tracking capacity, and good hygiene. You forgot Taiwan, who is faring much better than all three of the countries you mentioned.

And they did it all without closing their airports! What mostly helped was lack of mainland Chinese people entering the country. Also Taiwanese wear their face masks religiously and are used to obeying the rules set by the government. Finally (AFAIK) they have a very good health care system which handled the cases quickly and efficiently.

>What mostly helped was lack of mainland Chinese people entering the country

If the whole world closed their borders to China back in early Jan (and followed up with tracing and quarantine), we would be seeing this right now. Unfortunately, China was lobbying heavily against it.

Now China, being a massive exporter, has a global demand problem in addition to the local supply problem of shutting down their country for 8 weeks.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#659

Post by kgwgk »

Engineering-MD wrote: post #312
kgwgk wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

51% of patients requiring intensive care in Italy are in the 50-70 range. 12% are younger than 50.

What is your source for those figures? I haven’t been able to find the breakdown.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bolletti...

Unfortunately they don't give a more detailed breakdown.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#660

Post by Qwertious »

starfallg wrote: post #609
christoph wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a lot behavioural science going on with the strategy here as well. A lot of the UK public now seem to realise this is serious and have automatically changed behaviour without government mandating it. Long term, that's a big win, people are bought in (seemingly) of their own volition and there is huge value in that. The schools issue is very tricky as a lot of NHS staff will not be able to work if thei…

>A lot of the UK public now seem to realise this is serious and have automatically changed behaviour without government mandating it. I had no choice but go out and to do my weekly food shopping yesterday. This was definitely not what I experienced at all. Families crowding out in the supermarket with small children and grandparents abound. People coughing openly, not maintaining distance and so on. People still have…

To be fair, if all the "take it seriously people" stay at home as much as possible, you'll be far less likely to encounter them and 90% of the people you'll encounter in public are the people who don't change their behaviour.
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