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Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

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Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#641

Post by mullen »

mikewarot wrote: post #94

Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy. It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them) Energy Blindness -- We'…

> Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for those countries dependent on imported food or energy

Hogwash. Globalization is good, Globalization is here to stay. Whatever is the current location causing issues with Globalization will simply be routed around. There are plenty of countries that would love to be part of the global supply chain with. The only way any manufacturing is coming back to the rich industrialized countries is that it involves a lot of really good robots. Which is also good.

> It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them)

Again, hogwash. The market will force diets to change and producers will start producing more. Fertilizer production could be an issue but again, diets and markets will adjust.

> Energy Blindness -- We're so used to having free flowing oil cheap enough to burn for energy, it's an assumption built into everything. Unless we plan for the end of easy to reach oil, we could have supply chains collapsing everywhere.

A known issue that will not happen overnight. The world is racing toward non-oil based energy, so I don't see this being an issue. Don't get me wrong, this one I actually agree with, but it won't happen overnight. The world/markets will adapt.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#643

Post by ericd »

maverick74 wrote: post #237
throwaway787544 wrote: post #163

The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles. By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. However, there's still not a plan that makes all that sustaina…

What amazes me is how little we talk about hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles. Because, unless we get a tremendous breakthrough in the next 5 years, electric battery vehicles will be a very big pain. -Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected) -Batteries degrade too fast -Batteries take too long to charge -Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage…

>-Batteries are terribly expensive (and prices are not going down as fast as expected)

Not really.

>-Batteries degrade too fast

No, they don't, at least not the well-temperature-controlled ones. Larger EV packs should outlast most ICE cars.

>-Batteries take too long to charge

They really don't, unless you have no way to charge at home - the vast majority of charging happens overnight even on a 120V plug. We only visit chargers when on roadtrips.

>-Electricity prices are already going up terribly fast to take advantage of the boom (and blaming the war, and everything else to justify it's rise)

Not really true, at least in our corner of the US. I think we're sitting at ~$0.14/kwh, which works out to around $0.04-$0.05/mi, or 20-25 miles per $. And any rise in methane prices is going to hit hydrogen harder, given that most H2 is produced by cracking CH4.

>-Batteries pollute a lot more than previously though

Source? What kind of pollution? More than the steel that goes into making a car?

>-recycling Batteries is hard

Not really? Tesla claims a materials yield of 92% on their packs, and 100% of the packs recycled. Recyclers are willing to pay quite a bit for broken packs, which should tell you something.

>-Batteries component materials are rare

Newer chemistries are better about this.

>-if you get into a crash your Battery will most likely be affected - which means you will probably have to spend almost the price of a new vehicle

Yeah, Teslas aren't great on this front, even wrt the bodywork. But battery pack replacements don't cost nearly as much as a new EV.

Gaseous hydrogen has a lot of problems, and you'd need to build a whole distribution network. Which we already have with electricity...

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#644

Post by mywittyname »

youngNed wrote: post #364
philwelch wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people already have children who are more intelligent and attractive than average. They do this via mechanisms like “being intelligent enough to get rich, or at least not being stupid enough to go broke” and “being rich enough to marry hot people and have kids with them”. I don’t know if polygenetic testing is going to have a significant effect, but if it does, there is going to be a significant generation gap i…

this 'people are rich because they are smart' is not a take i expected to find on HN. Its not quite as damaging as 'people are rich because they work harder' but its really not far off

Intelligence is inheritable. Intelligence is correlated with educational attainment and wealth. People tend to marry within their socio-economic group.

Wealthy people who came from nothing are the exception. Even in places with high degrees of social mobility, climbing the social ladder is a multi-generational saga. Maybe a working class family has a child or two who enter the professional class, then maybe their child has the opportunity for their family to finance a company that goes big, like Dell or Microsoft, or maybe break in as an actor or sports figure. Most likely though, their kids also enter the professional class where the family rolls the dice again the next generation.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#645

Post by azemetre »

nostrebored wrote: post #621
tootie wrote: post #517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Next year or two" is extremely unlikely. The US is absolutely no going to switch back to a manufacturing base. It's only attempting to gain leverage against adversaries when it comes to critical supply chain components. China is all but guaranteed to see slowing growth compared to the past 40 years simply because there aren't enough farmers left to exploit for cheap labor and living standards are already so much hig…

But critical supply chain components are more frequent than people would like to think. In a period where sea freight becomes less stable, it's not a question of 'what goods can we not live without' but 'what goods can we not live without if delivery isn't stable and regular'? The U.S. is already losing sea hegemony. This was a key piece that enabled globalization to begin with.

Do you have examples of freight becoming unstable due to military actions and not supply constraints? The de globalization thesis makes sense but I don’t see examples of regional powers flexing their muscles causing supply chain problems, at least not publicly.

I suppose Russia is an obvious example in the EU but are their other examples?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#646

Post by TrapLord_Rhodo »

tkgally wrote: post #151
mikewarot wrote: post #94

Deglobalization -- In the US, we're about to be forced to rebuild all the manufacturing we outsourced since the 1970s. It's not going to go well for thos countries dependent on imported food or energy. It's possible a billion people will face famine in the next year or two as a result of the loss of grain from Russia and Ukraine, along with the loss of Fertilizers (or being priced out of them) Energy Blindness -- We'…

> Deglobalization That’s what I was going to say. Some people have been talking about it [1, 2], but it’s not yet getting the attention it deserves. [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20220702164210/https://www.nytim... [2] https://www.harperbusiness.com/book/9780063230477/The-End-of...

For discussing deglobalization, those articles have a very perceivable 'Western Bias' and i'm from the US

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#647

Post by O__________O »

jensneuse wrote: post #23

Managing APIs like dependencies, with a package manager-like developer experience. (npm for APIs). The number of APIs is continuously growing. It's going to be impossible to manually manage API dependencies in the future. I wrote about our approach to solve the problem here: https://docs.wundergraph.com/docs/architecture/manage-api-de... I'm curious what others think of this problem space.

In a single sentence, what is “Access all your data through a single API own by a third-party” best description, or is it something else?

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#648

Post by TrapLord_Rhodo »

orangepurple wrote: post #440
kvothe_ wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

unlikely we'll rebuild locally. We will outsource it to a friendlier country with cheap labor. In 50 yrs the cycle will repeat. (Probably South America.)

That country will be Mexico. There is already a strong logistics relationship with that country and it will only get stronger

Colombia has one of the biggest ports in the Gulf. With the huge flight of people out of Venezuela into colombia, I foresee labor being very cheap there and logistics to southern states very cheap.

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#649

Post by mambru »

feoren wrote: post #571
entropicgravity wrote: post #566

Personal vehicles will be getting both bigger and smaller. What's different from the past is that electric motors scale much better than IC engines. Both the world's smallest vehicles (kid's toys) and the largest vehicles (huge mining trucks) are both electric. First the small. Cities will soon start to ban all but electric vehicles in their downtown cores (already happening in some Chinese cities). The primary reaso…

I think this is a good insight, and I hope this comes to pass, but a couple points: > the world's largest vehicles (huge mining trucks) are electric What about cruise ships, freighters, freight trains, and aircraft carriers? They're diesel or nuclear-powered. Or maybe nuclear still counts as having an electric motor, just with a nuclear generator instead of a battery? > only EV's that are half the width of a normal c…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy

Available in Europe since 10 yrs ago. Not a rare sight, but not super-popular either.

Also https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_Ami_(electric)

Re: Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?

#650

Post by O__________O »

katmannthree wrote: post #6
abrichr wrote: post #5

Conscious realism and the cosmological polytope: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reYdQYZ9Rj4 https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.02813 According to Prof. Hoffman, this model of the universe is highly parsimonious in that it can model data from the Large Hadron Collider using a single parameter, while the best incumbent (Quantum Field Theory) needs millions. The implication is that everything we see and experience are not fund…

That's a lot of words in those links. What falsifiable predictions does this make?

>> “That's a lot of words in those links.”

My favorite HN comment ever.

__

As for that lack of a falsifiable claim, agree, not only that, but one that would allow for a preponderance of evidence.

Donald Hoffman was interviewed and topic of falsifiable observations came up and as far as I am able to tell he avoided the topic; search for “falsifiable” in this link:

https://tim.blog/2022/04/18/donald-hoffman-transcript/amp/

___

On same topic, this paper provides overview of possible different approaches testing to quantum gravity with cosmology:

https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.01597

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