Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

I might write more in-depth predictions on tildes, but for now the most egregious I can think of is on the change around the cryptocurrency space.

It'll probably still be around in some form. If cryptocurrencies themselves are still around by 2030 (seems likely) it'll look very different to today. Probably much more regulated and less fragmented (or on its way to standardize on fewer currencies; also fewer single-use-case currencies). If cryptocurrencies are successful 10 years from now, there will be a few government-backed ones at least. Libra (the Facebook one) won't happen, but something like it will be tried again, probably by Google or Amazon.

ICOs will be considered a joke and the scam of last decade. We'll look back at people falling for crypto scams in the 2010s like new web users fell for Nigerian scams in the 2000s.

Edit: just to try my hand at an extra prediction here, I think the rise of streaming services around tv means piracy will make a strong comeback with Plex and the like; and gaming will increasingly be streamed as well (think Stadia, but something that is successful, maybe by Steam). This may be more of a 20 year prediction but I think game developers will actually adapt their code, engines etc to better support the entire gameplay being streamed (latency-sensitive games becoming less mainstream).

Ah what the heck, may record mine for posterity as well. Most things rather bleak, still hope for some positives surprising me.

Tech:

1. Industrialization and commodification of deep learning.

2. No AGI. Substantial progress in understanding human nervous system though.

3. The the tech landscape solidifies the split between privacy-conscious and pricey 'ware and the mass market 'ware paid for with surveillance.

4. Network pollution caused by 5G and/or similar. Average person will have their home littered with random appliance transmitters they have no awareness about.

5. Actually controlling what your computers do will be a more esoteric and in-demand skill. CS departments will correct towards the pre-1980s mode when you were expected to actually learn most of the stuff at the university.

6. The push for tech regulation will sunset the unicorn era. Tech giants start to look more like telco giants, which still means people work for them for big money and less luster.

Geopolitics:

1. China will be an ideological superpower, Cold War or Age of Imperialism style, with a sizeable sphere of influence on most of continents, and many ideological adherents to the "safety and order by total surveillance" brand of totalitarianism in the West. There will be again two recognizable world systems, with one centered in the US (or possibly EU, if many things change) and the other in China. This can include new centers of manufacturing linked to the former.

2. There will be little organized response of the Western world to this, barring significant new popular movements in the US/EU. Non-US NATO countries will be mostly left to their own devices, with some fear of criticizing China by private citizens.

3. Russia will be moving towards becoming a client state of China, possibly with subtle hints of warlord decentralization.

4. The populist camp in the West, depending on the country, will be either flirting with China or evolve towards a kind of McCarthyism (some hints of that in the GOP nowadays). The establishment camp will be battered by unpopular but kinda necessary policies around pension reform, climate change etc. It's possible that a new camp based on the likes of Greens and Pirates, or something unquestionably leftist will gain viability.

5. Overall, there will be a global rethinking of nation state with stress on the "cyber" sovereignty. More world fragmentation in terms of tech, government policy.

6. On the other hand, political positions will be more global and homogenized, and English-speaking.

7. Climate change will incur a heavy cost, catastrophic in specific places, with little global response, more blame-shifting and elaborate denial.

8. With the increasing role of governments there will be visible progress in global regulation of finance.

> Governments to start / increase incentives to get married and have kids.

Probably gonna be another tax incentive around housing

1) above should read 2030. It is too late to edit it. Apologies.

I really do hope I am wrong about this one, but unless a very strong wave of international regulation on the big tech companies comes in, particularly with regards to the gathering, storage and processing of personal data, then I see us entering a gruelling cold war over the next decade, the main players being largely the same (US vs Russia & China, with the EU and the larger middle eastern powers as secondary actors).

Reasons for this prediction: - The likes of Trump, Putin, the brexit campaign have all benefitted from the normalisation of outrageous headlines and extreme/divisive views shared at mass scale and speed thanks to the ease of viral spreading of low quality media with ulterior motives. - The hyperlocal targetting of individuals using their personal data has only exacerbated and optimised this phenomenon. - Because of this it is easier for these divisive and populist politicians who run on policies of rash short term decisions to come into power, which will in turn lead to worse international relations. - (more speculative argument) The algorithms which power social media and consumer advertising using personal data will placate the middle classes, feeding them what they think they want to see and consume and keeping them distant from the world's reality (e.g. what is already happening in China, Singapore) meaning populists can maintain control by getting votes/support from the more desperate people with their more extreme policies.

Unfortunately, I do not see the necessary regulation coming in soon, as the major players would never want to break up their tech giants out of fear of giving up ground to rival tech giants (e.g. amazon vs ali baba). On top of that, these governments have no incentive to mitigate the gathering of personal data by companies as they will want access to it as well for political reasons (domestic as well as international mass surveillance provides a big strategic advantage in the context of this cyber cold war).

There are many other reasons why I think these problems are being exacerbated but I have tried to summarise what I think are (and will continue to be) the main ones.