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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#631

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

My most obvious prediction is that the long term, sometimes permanent damage Covid does to survivors will become harder and harder to deny. The result will be a crippled and damaged workforce in all countries that played fast and stupid with effective public health measures.

This will eventually be understood to be one of those spectacularly irrational failures of public policy that is remembered for centuries.

Covid itself will be tamed by UV-C in 2024, but there's still some way to go before that starts to happen.

Climate catastrophe will really start to bite with more and more unprecedented and incredibly destructive extreme weather events.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#632

Post by b20000 »

leetcode style interviews will disappear. FAANGs will realize they hired a bunch of drones who endlessly grinded meaningless coding excersises to get hired but have no ability to build good quality software that works well, delivers the necessary performance and is not some personal project to prove how smart someone is. they will return to hiring experienced people.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#633

Post by sebosp »

ChatGPT advances to be able to tailor a different version of the internet for each person, allowing people to talk in seamingly similar terms but with completely incoherent contexts, mining meaning out of data piles becomes the new gold rush, for which another AI GarbatChGPT is created to identify fake-intelligent content, this creates a new product sold as a browser addon developed by Google that only works on Chrome.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#634

Post by nine_k »

r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #458
HDThoreaun wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Globalization will always be too tempting to ignore when some countries have labor costs that are ten times lower than others. Large companies will continue to have enough political power to veto the laws that would be required to reverse globalization.

Globalization is a bit more than just companies setting up shop where labour is cheapest. It is a rules based order that relies on institutions like the World Bank, IMF, a bunch of treaties and other institutions and a set of norms about how relations between States should be constructed. It also relies on an elite consensus that globalization is good. I think there is a sense however that this consensus is breaking…

Globalization then will continue along the lines of cultural and political alliances. EU is one striking example of globalization, of you take a look from a perspective of 100 or even 50 years ago. Advanced chip will still continue to be made in Korea and (hopefully) Taiwan on machines built in Europe for companies that build products in the US and in Japan.

What is going to dwindle or even cease is cooperation with not-exactly-friendly countries, like, well, China and obviously Russia, and maybe not exactly hostile but culturally remote, like Saudi Arabia.

India and Africa will remain important cultural and economical battlegrounds between the West and China. China is investing a huge lot into African countries, and I suppose the more advanced of them, like Nigeria, will become the new "tigers" with explosive economic growth in the coming 15-25 years, like Korea in 1980s.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#635

Post by worik »

digitallyfree wrote: post #462
bsuvc wrote: post #335

1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis. 2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court battle in co…

Seriously though, the "Year of the Linux desktop" is when YOU decide that the Linux desktop is good enough and start using it full-time. That was many years ago for me, and for other people maybe it's not ready for them yet. But if you're talking about market share, it's going up slowly but steadily year after year.

> ...the "Year of the Linux desktop" is when YOU decide that the Linux desktop is good enough and start using it full-time...

1995

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#636

Post by api »

AI will bring the final victory of spam over all forms of filtering and gate keeping that don’t rely on true identity verification.

Things like GPT-3 will revive e-mail spam that will become almost impossible to filter.

Captchas will be solved by AI.

Social media will be flooded by increasingly sophisticated bots programmed to push propaganda.

By 2024 we will start to see even video content in places like YouTube and TikTok mass produced by bots.

I think we are in the twilight of the era of open Internet forums and open social media. The future is invite only, paid, or will require hard identity verification.

Some other bullet point predictions:

- Elon Musk is forced out of Tesla.

- Twitter continues to spiral down along with much of the rest of first and second generation social media. Elon starts looking for a buyer but at nowhere near what he paid for it. The whole sector continues to deflate with Meta also continuing its slide.

- SpaceX Starship flies successfully but with some minor issues, and continues to take longer to develop than predicted.

- Cryptocurrency continues to deflate with increasingly frantic attempts to thrash around and find a new application to reinflate it.

- Russia agrees to a peace deal in Ukraine that keeps Crimea and a little bit of taken land in the East. The rest of Ukraine immediately joins NATO, making future attacks far less likely.

- Donald Trump accepts a deal that sees him barred from holding office. He is never arrested or actually tried for anything.

- Another major announcement on fusion energy is made from a different team, and we start to see a huge increase in fusion funding.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#638

Post by nine_k »

r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #538
codegeek wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

#1 and #3 are contradicting each other. If deglobalization accelerates, why would hiring be anywhere in the world where labor costs are lower ? Shouldn't it be the opposite ? Also, I disagree with #1 and agree with #3 to some extent. I think Globalization is already here and it will only intensify. It is not a zero sum game and all sides can benefit from it considering they stop thinking of Globalization as a bad thi…

An alternative to globalization is not necessarily isolationism, which I agree is unlikely, but instead the re establishment of distinct blocs that operate largely independently of each other, according to distinct sets of rules, as during the Cold War when you had the (Sino) Soviet bloc, the "West", and a large number of countries that mostly traded with just their immediate neighbours or with former colonial powers…

I suppose that right now the US is doing a colossal job of showing the EU how it's interested in protecting the Europe. The amount of total US aid to Ukraine, which is standing between the newly expansionist Russia and the West, is comparable or exceeds the EU aid, and its military part is significantly larger than EU's.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#639

Post by smsm42 »

- Customer support starts to massively use AI chatbots. Remaining human support persons are universally annoyed when nobody believes them that they are humans.

- People start to seriously worry about AI outputs being black box and us not having a good understanding where it comes from and not being able to ensure safety and control over it. This does not stop commercial applications (as per above), though calls for regulation of the field intensify.

- Russia-Ukraine war turns into a massive quagmire where none of the sides make any progress but nobody wants to give up anything. Russia manages to sustain the war through 2023, even though at massive costs in economic development and living standards, while proclaiming they are winning next month for sure.

- Twitter survives and various celebrities keep publicly quitting it and quietly returning to it at the rate of at least one a month. Musk appoints a new CEO but keeps meddling anyway.

- Everybody opens a Mastodon account. Nobody really uses it for anything, or if they do, nobody knows or cares about it.

- Disney tries to expand copyright length again but fails.

- It is revealed that US government (via FBI and other departments) directly censored speech of US citizens on the internet on all major social networks, and continues to do so presently. No consequences to anyone involved, the revelation is largely ignored except for some

- It is revealed that the US government has implemented de-facto social scoring system, and is massively using it to identify "dangerous" people and "recommend" companies to avoid dealing with such people, or else. The Congress murmurs something to the tune "maybe we should have some oversight about it?" but nothing actually happens.

- Towards the end of 2023, after the current 1.7 trillion government finance bill ends, there is a major and widely covered "battle" about the next one, which ends up in signing another spending bill, this time over 5000 pages long and costing 2.3 trillion dollars.

- US Congress tries to make a serious attempt at regulating and controlling crypto, but fails making much progress due to it changing too fast and the lawmakers disagreeing on what exactly they want to do with it.

- Meta recognizes their metaverse is a bust, starts looking for the next cool toy.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#640

Post by gumboza »

escapecharacter wrote: post #434

- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…

I reckon at least two of these are going to come true and it will be less funny than your comment when it does.
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