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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#631

Post by mrleinad »

asdff wrote: post #629
mrleinad wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This time interest rates are going up, inflation is going up, and commodities are going up. "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked". Well, cryptobros don't even have a fig leaf...

But eventually interest rates will go down, and people will begin diversifying again instead of desperate rebalancing, and diversifying with modern snake oil investment marketing that's advertised in the media and online means opening crypto positions. I don't think we will ever see people up and walking away from ever investing in crypto again. Consider also how many buyers are probably waiting for a crash to get in…

"Eventually" could mean a decade or two from now. Nobody knows what that will look like.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#632

Post by asdff »

mrleinad wrote: post #631
asdff wrote: post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But eventually interest rates will go down, and people will begin diversifying again instead of desperate rebalancing, and diversifying with modern snake oil investment marketing that's advertised in the media and online means opening crypto positions. I don't think we will ever see people up and walking away from ever investing in crypto again. Consider also how many buyers are probably waiting for a crash to get in…

"Eventually" could mean a decade or two from now. Nobody knows what that will look like.

People will definitely be buying assets within a decade of a recession. They will begin the buying the very day of a market crash they had any sense.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#633

Post by joecot »

TameAntelope wrote: post #139
joecot wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As soon as it was clear that Bitcoin was going to be a commodity instead of a currency (why use it as a currency to buy a pizza this week when it could buy you a car next week?), it was clear it was now a pyramid scheme. That's why I didn't invest in it. What I hadn't counted on was how gullible people were for pyramid schemes.

I wish we had a better phrase than "pyramid scheme", because IMO anything that's a "scheme" has people who know better at one end, and I really don't think there's anyone involved in crypto that is deliberately "winning". What's a phrase for when everyone is getting scammed, and not by any one person, but by an idea? Where there are no winners, only lucky and unlucky. Pyramid trap? Pyramid quagmire? IDK, but "scheme"…

I would call it something besides a pyramid scheme if the people who got in at the bottom didn't then turn around and endlessly proselytize for crypto -- not because they think it's actually great, but because they can't take their money out unless some other poor sucker buys in. At the point where crypto bros are paying Matt Damon to say you're not a real man unless you buy their crypto, it's a pyramid scheme.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#634

Post by joecot »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #220
joecot wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As soon as it was clear that Bitcoin was going to be a commodity instead of a currency (why use it as a currency to buy a pizza this week when it could buy you a car next week?), it was clear it was now a pyramid scheme. That's why I didn't invest in it. What I hadn't counted on was how gullible people were for pyramid schemes.

There is a different interpretation: Crypto enabled tax dodgers and black markets. It’s a use case I didn’t consider a decade ago.

There is also this, and it's one of the things that propped up Bitcoin at the beginning. A large chunk of the Chinese drug black market ran on bitcoin. In many ways the cryptocurrency boom was the 21st century's opium war.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#635

Post by hutzlibu »

daveed wrote: post #536
hutzlibu wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We never had the heart to tell him that all that does is prove that he got lucky; professional blackjack players only average a return of 3-5% profit." I would say, that depends who they are playing against?

Not in blackjack, you're playing against the house.

Yeah, I confused the game.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#636

Post by robocat »

erulabs wrote: post #533
robocat wrote: post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks: I hadn’t thought of it as say Puritan echos; but yes, telling others what they should and shouldn’t do with their time and resources definitely has religious (any kind) and political (both left and right) facets. There is not an equivalent 1st amendment “right” to spend our time and money as we will. Too many people just spout an opinion on what we should be “allowed” to do: without thinking of how that could…

I always try to imagine a really reasonable reason for why people believe things like that. One that I can imagine is that humans are extremely biased towards seeing inefficiency. We seem to have a much easier time spotting problems than recognizing the product of years of slow labor. It makes sense: if we were able to appreciate the slow accumulation of value, we'd just stare at any living creature all day, totally…

The irony of saying sorry (to yourself?): why are wasting time thinking instead of working??

One underlying cause for complaining about the waste of others is status seeking, of which virtue signalling is a part of.

People don’t have to be reasonable, but your effort is admirable.

I think engineers look at the world with different eyes, as you say. I find our infrastructure systems as profound - and also the beauty of how our interfaces with those systems hide deep complexity. The average person doesn’t see flushing a toilet as amazing technology, nor understand the vast number of lives saved by civil engineering (doctors are window dressing on society).

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#638

Post by macksd »

mirceal wrote: post #507
macksd wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying I don't buy crypto because it crashed at this point in time. I'm saying continuously over a very long period of time I haven't bought crypto, and that's based on the information I have had over that continual period of time. Nothing has changed for me with this crash except that some people who I think are wrong are going to shut up now. (edit: I dream - I'm sure they'll find a way to tell me they're j…

I had a problem with this part: > I've been getting told for months that I'm missing the train and making a bad decision by a guy who bought BTC at 60k and told me "everyone" was saying it was going to go past 100k. And apparently I was a fool for investing in property and a diversified stock and bond portfolio. So yeah - I feel somewhat vindicated right now. I.e. Feeling vindicated right now does not necessarily mat…

The most generous estimate I can find of monetary usage is 10%. Most estimates are less than half that. I don't remember the last time I saw a legal business that accepted crypto as payment or heard of anyone I know using crypto as a currency. The way it's taxed doesn't seem very currency-like to me. I've yet to hear some practical reason for crypto better than "no bro, you'll see".

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#639

Post by noduerme »

Layke1123 wrote: post #625
noduerme wrote: post #605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this is the nature of a casino. One out of ten people gets a big payout for the same basic actions. If you're among the other nine people like I am, you take it in stride. You don't jump and cannibalize the guy who won. Not least because your self-esteem shouldn't be contingent upon how much money you have compared to someone else. People who win big randomly can't really be proud of what they have. But if you kn…

This isn't about losing 1% of your wealth gambling. This is about wealth inequality. This is about watching as resources are entirely captured for a very small few. But history will continue to teach lessons about what happens when the rich get too big for their britches.

Who said 1%? I know people who have just lost most of their life savings in this crypto crash. My view is that they gambled big, and some won and others lost. My point is that I'm not angry at the ones who won, nor particularly sympathetic to those who lost, because I'm happy with my decision to stay out of the game even though I at one point held a winning ticket.
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