Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

And we will see articles from the same tech journalists currently complaining about terrible working conditions in Amazon warehouses, complaining about Amazon firing warehouse staff.

A year or two in they'll add chat so people can keep in contact before and after the event.

A year after that it'll pretty much become a new online social network built around interests that are tied to an event, leading the company to create a new feature called, 'groups.'

... and we'll end up back where we started.

1. Computing becomes dirty cheap and small. This includes processing and memories like SSDs. This trend has been happening for a while, but at 1/2th of the current price and size things star to become even more interesting.

2. Batteries (and chargers) become cheap and smaller. This changes a lot of things about small and large gadgets, from watches to buses. Again, already happening, but at 1/2th of the cost and size things are a lot more interesting.

3. Internet access becomes fast and cheap everywhere. Speed-wise we are already there with 4G, we just need more coverage and 1/2th or 1/4th the price.

Consequences of this technology:

- We no longer have wifi in our homes. Consumer cables for data further than 1m away becomes obsolete. Since batteries are a lot better, this also removes the need for permanent cables almost everywhere. No more cabled headphones, power tools, etc.

- Energy also becomes decentralized. Except for the larger buildings that still need external energy, it becomes a no-brainer to have a large cheap battery and solar panels in your home. The battery might be part of your car.

- Paper stops making sense. For $30 you can get a tablet or e-reader on the restaurant that is also translated and has pictures, so no one keeps those paper-printed menus. Servers only deliver food and clean the table, for now. This happens across all industries.

- As labor drops, real state becomes even more important in EU and Asia. Prices skyrocket in the urban centers, but interestingly in Japan where the population is even older by now Tokyo starts to get cheaper. Traditional housing advice starts to get weird.

- Amazon Kindle finally switches to USB-C and we all rejoice as we throw our micro-usb cables away.

TLDR 1. Federated Learning will unlock value from previously inaccessible sensitive data.

2. Deepfakes will impact democracy and bring about a need for publisher certified content.

3. Nationalism will rise around the world, the internet will splinter.

4. eSports will take a huge chunk of attention and advertising dollars from sports.

5. Blockchain will get adoption in enterprise. Mainstream adoption will struggle until there is a key custody solutions that everyone can use.

6. Self driving cars will open up new business models. Regulations will be the main barrier to adoption.

7. Welfare systems will get strained.

8. Digital currencies and negative interest rates will open pandoras box.

9. Search will get reimagined.

I also enjoyed these posts

https://avc.com/2020/01/what-will-happen-in-the-2020s/

https://continuations.com/post/189997132065/an-agenda-for-th...

https://alexdanco.com/2019/12/17/ten-predictions-for-the-202...