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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#611

Post by andy_ppp »

golem14 wrote: post #458
simonh wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are good points. Because Italy was hit hardest first they had very little time to prepare. The UK has had about an extra month, which puts us in a different strategic position, so we might be able to afford an approach not viable for Italy.

How does the UK have an extra month, exactly ? It did not take Italy 1 month to to go from 1,143 (today's UK number) positives to 21,157 (today's Italy number, per https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... ), did it ?

Testing in Italy was far less, the totals for there need to be inferred from the deaths and cases and the amount of testing!

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#612

Post by sgt101 »

golem14 wrote: post #439
wideasleep1 wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until late Feb, it was mainly CDC, but in March many more states came into the picture: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/test... Depending on one's view of 'widespread' testing, we have currently about 20K tested, and around 2.4K positively diagnosed.

I think it's about 19K "SPECIMEN" tested, not people. Maybe 8K people tested as of today, but only So, yes, I think claiming the US had widespread testing is stretching the truth beyond BS level.

But in China for the equivalent stage of the outbreak there was zero testing. Because there were no tests. The data cannot be compared.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#614

Post by tonyedgecombe »

paultopia wrote: post #407

Insane. Here's the key line, from one of the people in charge of that clown car: "There’s going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows, as we think it probably will do, where you’ll want to cocoon, you’ll want to protect those at-risk groups so that they basically don’t catch the disease and by the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity’s been achieved in the rest of the population."[1] He…

Because this strategy only works if they can identify the point in question.

Why wouldn't they, they know the rate of new cases. When it's low enough they lift the quarantine. Out of all the problems this seems the smallest to me.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#615

Post by dharma1 »

nojvek wrote: post #541
Aperocky wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except if it became seasonal there's going to be vaccines (with my faith in the medical research). And if the death rate is as high, everyone is going to get it. Making the sacrifice that british public is going through now senseless. Also, it becoming seasonal could also be a self fulfilling prophecy due to its policy.

Yeah this basically reads to me as UK doesn’t give a shit about it’s seniors since death is inevitable. Once a vaccine that works is out I’m sure most of the world will get it. The lockdown is all about preventing (early) deaths.

A vaccine is 1-2 years away. It's likely the majority will be infected before then.

It is unclear if you can continue playing whack-a-mole with quarantine measures for the next 1-2 years. It's possible but unlikely, at least in the West.

The UK's gambit is that by timing stricter quarantine measures they can cut the head off the peak, while slowing down spread due to some immunity in the population. This may work if the risk groups can indeed self-isolate for 4 months, and if more ventilators can be manufactured at speed.

It will still be devastating.

It will be interesting to see what happens in China after people return to work.

Either way, I think we are looking at bans on international travel to continue for many months to come.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#617

Post by ascorbic »

kurthr wrote: post #590
ascorbic wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The plan to protect the vulnerable is four months of quarantine: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantine...

It’s almost Swiftian in its satire... oh wait, they’re serious. Strange that it may be quite a few of their own voters who die. I know Boris idolizes the mayor from Jaws who says the beach is safe to keep businesses open so maybe they are that dumb or maybe they’ll be really lucky. Risking an extra 2% of 50M dead (or even 20% of that) is a big gamble. How many allies died in Normandy? 200k? Hope it’s worth it. I’m gu…

What better plan for vulnerable people is there than isolating them? You also seem to be under the impression that the plan is for no lockdown. The government has already said that there will be increasingly tight measures over the next few weeks.

I despise the current government, and have no idea if this plan is better than alternatives, but please if you want to criticise it, do so for what it actually is, not a straw man of your own construction.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#618

Post by glangdale »

This is insane. It depends on a bunch of things we don't know turning out to be true: can we develop herd immunity to COVID-19? Can we adequately isolate young/healthy people from old/sick?

IF this turns out to be the UK strategy it will also become imperative for countries trying containment to ban travel from the UK.

I think it's an idiotic brainwave from a bunch of people who have spent way too much time pretending that they are the "smartest people in the room".

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#619

Post by lukevdp »

ksec wrote: post #394
cactus2093 wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t that the whole point of a lockdown? After ~6-8 weeks you get the new infection rates down low enough that you basically reset the clock and have a second chance at responding like Hong Kong and keeping it in the containment phase. Then you have to keep that up for hopefully 9 months until a vaccine is available. It’s certainly not easy, but it seems possible and it’s not clear this would be much worse on the ec…

>Isn’t that the whole point of a lockdown? You will need a Lockdown AND Mask, or you will simply just need Mask and not even lockdown. I would argue social distancing only is not enough. But somehow even people in Italy refuse to wear mask. So I think a culture issue is also a problem there.

I don’t think masks are as effective as you think. WHO says only wear a mask:

If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection. Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing. Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water. If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#620

Post by [deleted] »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #498
dathinab wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's basically: Throw 2 or 3 hounded thousand lives away to have less economical impact next year. I.e. pure evil IMHO. especially because there is a non small chance that it will be more like 1-1.5 Million more death then necessary.

There was an op ed recently from a former member of the Johnson government that stated "It is time the economists took over from the doctors, before the real pandemic [economic recession] spreads." So that, told me all I need to know about the cruelty and stupidity of the UK government at this time.

[deleted]
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