Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#611

Post by bmsleight_ » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:35 AM UTC

reubens wrote: post #386

kyleomalley wrote: post #382

1. This will be the decade of compact hospital-grade health and bio-Informatics devices being brought into the home and personal life. Think Startrek tricorder capability but in a (likely) larger package. 2. Deep fakes will precipitate the need for digitally signed media. This likely means further reliance on root-of-trust systems like x509 certificates or some new international body designed to issue a new form of l…

Regarding 1., what do you think will be the selling point of this transition? There is very little that hospital monitoring devices can offer to the average person (do you need a daily ECG / EKG?)

[Not parent poster] You are correct based upon current technology. However we are seeing AI better predicting cancer https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-50857759

So this tricorder could scan you/ take vital and then diagnose anything much better. Making a trip to a "Doctor" zero cost.

Imagine a free trip to a Doctor every morning. Not something I would like, but very very profitable to sell a device.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#612

Post by SolubleSnake » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:35 AM UTC

CptFribble wrote: post #215

- Ads are no longer presented or indicated as such. All advertisement besides public space billboards are paid product placements, advertorials, and sponsored dialogue in TV shows. - The trend toward "authenticity" still ramping up in 2020 hits full swing, and commercial entities follow suit. Any announced commercial speech is viewed with distrust, while meme tweets are celebrated as "real." Corporate messaging becom…

I think the educated elites predilection for 'high' culture will stop this. There'll be a sort of Waldenesque rebellion against it.

Agreed that it's horrifying though!

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#613

Post by angrais » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:36 AM UTC

ivan_gammel wrote: post #210

Politically: * Rise of the EU as global superpower with European army taking over all functions of NATO except strategic defense (nuclear/space). All European countries except ex-USSR and England but including Scotland are members of EU. * Rise of Africa as a big consumer market. Green belt finished, major improvements in agriculture and infrastructure help to combat famine. Ethiopia replaces South Africa as economic…

Why do you think there will be "almost no cars in European and Chinese cities"?

They're both entirely different cultures and markets.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#614

Post by graycat » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:37 AM UTC

rimliu wrote: post #600

air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 6. But a small yet growing culture of "offliners" becomes > mainstream. Being offline is the new "Yoga" and allows > bragging rights. I also think this. However, where do you brag if you are offline… > 8. Web development matures and a "standard" stack is accepted, > all in JS. I kind of hoping for "going back to basics" in regards to the web. Like content sites rediscover they can work with HTML only and it must no…

I agree: For my Web site, I wrote no JS at all. Microsoft's ASP.NET wrote a little for me, but it's optional. My largest page sends for just 400,000 bits. The page is exactly 700 pixels wide and has both horizontal and vertical scroll bars and is usable in a window as narrow as 300 pixels. I intend the page to look good on anything with a Web browser up to date as of, say, 10 years ago.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#615

Post by botwriter » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:39 AM UTC

botwriter wrote: post #609

1. Brexit happens the UK becomes Singapore on the Thames. Net contributors to the EU (Germany, Holland, France, etc.) populous's become increasingly eurosceptic. Another country leaves the EU (Probably Holland) and the EU crumbles. 2. Countries increasingly venture into building their own microchips; the world wakes up that letting China build most of the world's chips is a terrible idea on a national security standp…

I've just been downvoted wonder if it's because of the china stuff :D

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#616

Post by hnuser123456 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:42 AM UTC

VMG wrote: post #554

jb775 wrote: post #482

1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. 2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite. 3.) Financial downturn/semi-recession in mid-late decade primarily caused by excessive corporate stock buybacks artificially inflating stock prices. (Stock bu…

> 1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. Is there a quantum solution for one of the popular proof-of-work algorithms?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Quantum_computing_and_Bitcoin

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#617

Post by tsaprailis » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:43 AM UTC

I think that one sector that has not been given much spotlight is space. I feel that space will get lots of more startups leveraging LEO in unexpected ways. The current rate of progress for the different launch systems, bring the cost/kg to orbit further down, as well as further satellite miniaturization/mass production will prove space as a new breeding ground for ideas that we cannot still think about, but I think in a decade from now we will be looking at space as on of the sectors pushing economic growth across the planet.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#618

Post by hnuser123456 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:44 AM UTC

jb775 wrote: post #482

1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. 2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite. 3.) Financial downturn/semi-recession in mid-late decade primarily caused by excessive corporate stock buybacks artificially inflating stock prices. (Stock bu…

It sounds like you're saying a good quantum computer would enable a 51% attack. Instead, you could glean one wallet at a time, but not use it to somehow "over-power" the rest of the network: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Quantum_computing_and_Bitcoin

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#619

Post by scscsc » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:44 AM UTC

scscsc wrote: post #610

1. Mainstream CPUs get a lot more cores, making difference between software and hardware rendering disappear. 2. More and more features of programming languages for verifiable software (e.g., Dafny or Coq) get into mainstream languages, resulting in better overall software quality. 3. Computer mathematics (e.g., in Lean) gets traction, with some high-profile mathematics breakthroughs enabled. 4. Package manager-based…

7. Another AI winter, despite AI/ML progress.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#620

Post by tzfld » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:46 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #517

1. At least one major US city will be substantially destroyed due to climate change. Probably Miami, Galveston, or New Orleans. It will not be fully rebuilt. (Much like Puerto Rico and Key West). 2. Self-driving cars will arrive, but as a niche product for senior communities. (Like Google's slow bubble car.) 3. Amazon will finally get robotic picking working, and their warehouse employment will start to drop. 4. Some…

>no manned activity beyond low earth orbit

We may actually see humans on the Moon in the next decade.