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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#601

Post by undefined-1 »

knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

It's worrying that the US might be doing the same thing but without openly saying it. Little is being done here about the virus. Most people can't get tested. The Senate took a vacation. The Republican Party doesn't want older and unhealthy people depending on social programs. Pray the virus away. Suffering will bring people to God.

"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." --Mother Teresa

This is how some people think. It seems like there are no serious people in charge. It's going to be a catastrophe like we have never experienced.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#602

Post by starfallg »

poka wrote: post #598
knzhou wrote: post #567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK, "maths" is a very broad category. It includes my field of theoretical particle physics, as well as mathematical disease modelling. All of us would be called mathematicians. Yes, not everybody signing is a specialist in epidemiology, but so what? The point is that a good number are -- there is no clear consensus among UK experts for the UK government's position. And among global experts, there is a clear co…

Keep signing petitions from ivory towers. That's not where political pressure on decision makers comes from.

The plan is supposed to be based on science, not politics, yet here you are telling me this isn't the case?

On a more serious note, petitions and other methods by experts to publicly state a position isn't just about influencing government policy. It's also a political tool in the aftermath of failed policy. Just like the current panel of experts is a political tool employed by the government to justify the biases in its policy.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#603

Post by henrikschroder »

jdietrich wrote: post #537
dathinab wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But no lock down strategy is about halting the virus! They are about slowing it, so that the load on the health care system isn't too grade. Current data show that dath ratio in case of slow spread can be reduced to 1%, potential even less. While with overload it's more like 5% and with collapsing overload even potentially more. Also work slowing the number of total infected people without usable medicine against it…

>They are about slowing it, so that the load on the health care system isn't too grade. This isn't really a plan, it's mostly wishful thinking. We expect herd immunity to kick in at around 60% prevalence, which in the UK would be ~38 million cases. ~10% of cases require hospitalisation, so that's ~3.8 million hospital admissions. At the last count, NHS England had a grand total of 4123 critical care beds. Unless we r…

> ~10% of cases require hospitalisation

That depends on the demographics that get infected! Stop pulling these numbers out of your asses as if they're universally true!

That number is based on the virus hitting everyone equally, and central to the UK strategy is that you avoid that, that you instead quarantine and isolate the at-risk people, and build herd immunity among the remainder, not among the entire general population.

This entire post and all the comments is one giant "holy crap the UK strategy is bananas!", but it seems no-one understands the rationale behind it!

Come on! There are legit arguments against it, but your argument isn't it!

> We need a lockdown to buy us some time, but we also need to face up to the reality that a lockdown isn't a solution but merely a stopgap.

The whole mad point of the UK strategy is that you'll reach herd immunity without massive hospitalisation and death, and that once you're through it, you're done, the virus will die out in the UK, no matter what the state the rest of the world is in, no matter when a vaccine is finished, no matter if other countries fight intermittent outbreaks or not.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#604

Post by tedesign »

kurthr wrote: post #590
ascorbic wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The plan to protect the vulnerable is four months of quarantine: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantine...

It’s almost Swiftian in its satire... oh wait, they’re serious. Strange that it may be quite a few of their own voters who die. I know Boris idolizes the mayor from Jaws who says the beach is safe to keep businesses open so maybe they are that dumb or maybe they’ll be really lucky. Risking an extra 2% of 50M dead (or even 20% of that) is a big gamble. How many allies died in Normandy? 200k? Hope it’s worth it. I’m gu…

4400 confirmed dead on D-Day (Allied)

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#605

Post by leemailll »

Engineering-MD wrote: post #305
xadoc wrote: post #90

There is no proof immunity will happen, the UK Gov is thinking in economic terms and worried about GDP. https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/13/coronaviru...

If immunity doesn’t occur, then a vaccine is also useless.

It's two different things

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#606

Post by 1_over_n »

Silhouette wrote: post #20
knzhou wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there's a third strategy that works better than either: don't lockdown, but do effective testing, case tracking, and treatment, well enough so that exponential growth can't happen in the first place. That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great.

That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great. All of which have tiny populations compared to the UK. For larger nations, there simply aren't enough tests available, nor enough treatment facilities for those who are likely to become very sick if the virus spreads rapidly through the population.

and much denser populations, with a lot of international travel. which have a huge culture of eating food in hawker centres which would really seem to make a big threat to containment yet they appear to be doing well.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#607

Post by 1_over_n »

dash2 wrote: post #542
knzhou wrote: post #209

Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the…

About those hundreds of academics: about 90% seem to be mathematicians. I checked two at random and none of their top publications were about epidemiology. You can be a scientist, yet know effectively nothing on a specific topic.

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-s...

The British Society for Immunology have also wrote an open letter of concern. They are immunologists and know about immunity.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#608

Post by kd5bjo »

puranjay wrote: post #592
christoph wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a lot behavioural science going on with the strategy here as well. A lot of the UK public now seem to realise this is serious and have automatically changed behaviour without government mandating it. Long term, that's a big win, people are bought in (seemingly) of their own volition and there is huge value in that. The schools issue is very tricky as a lot of NHS staff will not be able to work if thei…

I'm not sure how people will react by say, week 4 of isolation. I've been cooped up indoors for a week and it's already taking a toll on my well being. You will invariably have people breaking quarantine after a few weeks, especially if there is a sense of the threat subsiding.

With entertainment venues being shuttered as “non-essential” at the same time as people are worried about both their health and livelihoods, there’s a very real risk of widespread morale problems as this crisis evolves.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#609

Post by starfallg »

christoph wrote: post #467
majc2 wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The strategy of UK seems valid as long as you protect the more vulnerable, which they don't do. The UK and devolved governments signaled on Thursday that the plan is for the vulnerable to be self-isolating for a long period; and based on the briefings to UK jornos on twitter - it'll be 16 weeks of self isolation for over 70s and those with underlying health conditions (they've not said what conditions yet) - I've s…

I think there's a lot behavioural science going on with the strategy here as well. A lot of the UK public now seem to realise this is serious and have automatically changed behaviour without government mandating it. Long term, that's a big win, people are bought in (seemingly) of their own volition and there is huge value in that. The schools issue is very tricky as a lot of NHS staff will not be able to work if thei…

>A lot of the UK public now seem to realise this is serious and have automatically changed behaviour without government mandating it.

I had no choice but go out and to do my weekly food shopping yesterday. This was definitely not what I experienced at all. Families crowding out in the supermarket with small children and grandparents abound. People coughing openly, not maintaining distance and so on.

People still have no sense of urgency to change their behaviour, and this is the critical time that we need to mobilise. Any success would be down to pure luck rather than their strategy.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#610

Post by ctz »

mschuster91 wrote: post #134
akerro wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Killing older population will provide £350M/weekly for the NHS and decrease financial gap between generations.

Good god, making the choice of killing people for saving on pension borders on Nazi-level eugenics.

Yes. We have eugenist advisors to senior government: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51535367
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