Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

> 2. electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029. I think the tipping point is much earlier. Fast chargers station are becoming normal in the UK. I think the tipping point is 2025.

Alas I have not found a share/bet/option were I can back this tipping point and put my money where my mouth is.

I also think that Amazon will get Robotic Picking and Refilling in their Warehouses to work. Of course this will result in an large number of heartless firings of workers.

I doubt their cashierless brick-and-mortar stores will take off. (In 2019 they had such a pilot in Seattle I think).

> 3. Driving will become a privilege Agree - insurance of human non-assisted driving vs some computer self-driving (level 3/4/5) differential will make it too expensive for human non-assisted driving. Data will drive the insurance costs.

This all ties in rather nicely with the other predictions of "offlining" becoming a thing. In fact it seems mighty tempting based on your predictions.

1. Brexit happens the UK becomes Singapore on the Thames. Net contributors to the EU (Germany, Holland, France, etc.) populous's become increasingly eurosceptic. Another country leaves the EU (Probably Holland) and the EU crumbles.

2. Countries increasingly venture into building their own microchips; the world wakes up that letting China build most of the world's chips is a terrible idea on a national security standpoint.

3. Trump wins the 2020 election, Democrats implode. Democrats move further to the left. Republicans have another celebrity/ popular candidate and win the 2024 election. The democrat's open borders policies and sanctuary cities screw over the democrats as Hispanics and naturally catholic and conservative.

4. LGBTQ+ movement recognises paedophilia as an oppressed minority. Outrage ensues they lose all support from the public and the LGB section forms their own evolution that gains popular support.

5. The links between US media funding and China get leaked. Massive scandal but mainstream media still somehow survive it.

6. Myanmar (Burma) shocks most people to become the next industrial powerhouse (China). Most of the world suspects it will be Vietnam, but it won't.

7. The full extent of Chinas gold reserves is known. Dwarfing US Gold reserves depending how this emerges it will be seen as an act of war and 2nd cold war will heat up. Gold prices soar to unprecidented levels RMB soars and (again depending on how the world finds out) the Chinese push for RMB to be the defacto global currency.

8. The rise of Private Intelligence Agencys is more widley known. A high profile fuck up will happen and at least one nation state will have egg on their face.

9. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping gets assasinated. More than likely by someone in the Chinese Miliatry with links to dissedents in ethier Hong Kong, Taiwan or Tibet. Massive internal power vaccum happens. The 'success' of his assasination sees a rash of other asian leaders getting bumped off including North Koreas leader.

10. China invades Taiwan. First cyber war takes place. US thinks twice about a full blown war with mainland China and instead opts for intelligence lead / cyber capabilities to topple the chinese Government.

11. Chinese government may fall due to economic downturns in China, belt and road isn't enough. Massive recession in most of south east asia and certain parts of africa also.

12. Media will write articles in 2030 on trying to work out who exactly was botwriter and how were his predictions so close.